Career investor/strategist for 21 years. Macro, geopolitics, value investing—often contrarian. Free discord available upon request, NFA
Park City, Utah
Joined July 2009
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Haven’t shared anything publicly since my stated exit of silver at the end of January 2026. At that time I called for several quarters of consolidation under $100 (admiralty I did not foresee a retrace all the way to the 40s) Nonetheless, I now have high conviction that this is where silver begins to stage the second leg for the couple years ahead. My original target for that second leg was $125-150, but given where the first leg ended and the amount of time we’ve spent consolidating, I now believe the second leg will reach between $200-300. Silver currently $49 and likely has a few points lower to go, but want to get this post out ahead of it.
I see a lot of folks expecting a large drawdown for markets in 2026. While I certainly think volatility will become more frequent in 2026 as opposed to the single vol event of April 2025, I think it is likely contained within a range of upward chop that eventually breaks out by year end. The image is a *very rough* example of what I think is the most likely price action ahead. Good luck in 2026! 🍀🍻 $SPX
Every January, I post my market forecasts for the upcoming year in my discord. Here's my approximate take on 2026:
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When you say "they choose," who exactly do you mean? It certainly wasn't the Venezuelan people, whose voices were silenced under Maduro's regime. As you may not realize, 78.4% of Venezuelans live in monetary poverty, 56.8% in extreme poverty, food production has collapsed amid an 88% economic contraction from 2012-2020, inflation has hovered around 180%, and imports plummeted as the economy cratered. Most critically, this suffering unfolded while a dictator stripped away their freedoms and any meaningful vote for change.
This fueled the largest migration crisis in the Western Hemisphere, with nearly 8 million Venezuelans fleeing since 2014—a resounding vote of no confidence in a regime built on economic devastation and oppression.
So, when you say to "they sell" or "they choose," you're actually describing the actions of an oppressive dictator, not the will of the people.
Now that we've established the oil sales were dictated by Maduro, not popular choice, let's address why the buyer of this oil matters in the broader geopolitical landscape over the next decade. As an investment strategist with focus on geopolitics, I can tell you this is quite complex, but I'll summarize key points for you:
Eastern foreign powers, with China at the center, are rising to threaten Western hegemony over the next decade. This threatens not just the U.S., but allies like the UK (where I assume you're based). China and its partners are aggressively sourcing global resources to fuel their military-industrial buildup, aimed at targets like Taiwan and potential broader conflicts with the West. Do you oppose Taiwan's sovereignty? Do you want to help equip the East for war with the West?
While the legality of Trump's authorization for the U.S. intervention is certainty debatable, it is an essential move on the chess board to prevent Western Hemisphere neighbors like Venezuela from aiding Eastern adversaries. This hemispheric isolation allows the U.S. a more hands-off approach in the East, potentially reducing future military entanglements.
Moreover, I suspect the Venezuela move was part of a larger bargain with Russia on Ukraine: Moscow's restrained response (limited to diplomatic protests and UN calls) in exchange for a Ukraine-Russia peace deal. If you look at my profile, this past Thursday I said escalation was likely to take place this weekend. Here’s another prediction: expect an Ukraine-Russia settlement in the coming months.
A quick look at my posts shows #Gold & #Silver have been my main focus over the past two years. They'll likely keep doing well (especially miners), but my take for 2026: nuclear/uranium and copper will start to steal the spotlight. ⚡🔋 #Commodities #Investing
That correction came even quicker than I imagined for silver. Now give silver some time to stabilize and consolidate, once it starts moving up again the miners will outperform and outperform BIG. #silver $silj $sil $slv
Silver miners have been drastically lagging the metals, this is normal for precious metal bull markets. To me, this signals a stage of disbelief; investors aren't confident that silver will sustain these prices, so they've avoided deeper investments in the market like the miners. My prediction is that within the first half of next year silver will see a correction (10-20%), then stabilize. Once silver starts moving up again from there, investors will start to trust in the miners and they will rapidly catch up and exceed silvers gains. It may look something like this (Blue=SLV) (Orange=SILJ). $SLV $SIL $SILJ #SILVER
Silver miners have been drastically lagging the metals, this is normal for precious metal bull markets. To me, this signals a stage of disbelief; investors aren't confident that silver will sustain these prices, so they've avoided deeper investments in the market like the miners. My prediction is that within the first half of next year silver will see a correction (10-20%), then stabilize. Once silver starts moving up again from there, investors will start to trust in the miners and they will rapidly catch up and exceed silvers gains. It may look something like this (Blue=SLV) (Orange=SILJ). $SLV $SIL $SILJ #SILVER
$SLV $SIL $SILJ I could not have been clearer. Miners are still lagging, that's where the largest upside still remains.
Receipts attached,
In 2022 at $1600/oz I called gold 'a buy for the long haul'.
In early 2025 I pivoted and said silver would begin to outperform gold (on its way to $100/oz+).
Now, here in December of 2025, I'm calling for Copper, Palladium, and Platinum (and related miners) to have the highest upside into the end of this commodity and precious metal bull run.
$COPX $COPJ $PAAL $SPPP $PPLT
Now that gold is over 3000 and everyone’s talking about it, time to revisit this post. When it was in the 1600s and no one cared, I was posting about the long opportunity almost every day in my discord. There’s still juice left, but silver and the gold/silver miners present a far better opportunity from here IMO.
Recent broad market volatility has provided an even better entry into silver and miners ( $SLV $SIL $SILJ ) for the year ahead. I bought gold at 1600s (proof in a previous tweet) and have rotated most profits to silver here (except physically held gold).
The current gold to silver ratio is 1/100, the historical average the last 100 years is 1/40, and the average at the peak of precious metal bull markets over the last 100 years is 1/27. As both attention shifts to precious metals and profits are taken from gold, silver's small MC will allow it to slingshot higher in a fashion that far outpaces gold's return from here.
I ultimately expect gold will make it to $4000 before a substantial cyclical downturn (secularly it remains one of the best places to be--don't sell physical). If we speculate silver mean reverts to only the ratio average of 1/40, that would price silver around $100. That is my rough price target within the next year or two.