And 2025 is a wrap! Here were our 2025 picks Not pictured is Seabird Exploration, which was acquired mid year up > 50% (good for 100% TWR) Average pick returned ~50% for 2025, with 4/20 names providing a negative return Best pick returned > 300%, worst pick returned -23%

Houthis claim they attacked Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura oil refinery. We were informed of explosions in that area approximately 14 hours ago

Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority says at least 7 Sinokor vessels have faced enforcement action, accusing the tanker giant of the highest number of crossing violations in 3 months. Now it threatens legal action.

VLCC freight cost is putting Atlantic–Pacific crude trade under pressure. The twist? Falling freight could bring long-haul voyages back into play. When freight costs explode, barrels don’t just get more expensive to move, the trade routes themselves can change.

$6.7 billion in backlog. But look at the contract coverage cliff: 2026: 78% 2027: 72% 2028: 55% 2029–2031: just 13% Noble has substantial contracted revenue today. The bigger challenge is securing the next wave of offshore drilling work beyond 2028. $NE

The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to 282.6M barrels, its lowest level since October 1982. After a 172M-barrel release agreement, Washington has also authorized up to 400,000 barrels for a refinery disruption.

Investors fear Lula will nationalize all private enterprises and expropriate private shareholders without compensation as his final act after more than a decade in office

Dolphin Drilling sells Blackford Dolphin for up to $25M but keeps potential upside through rig management. Only $10M is payable on delivery; the remaining $15M depends on SPM receiving its first payment under a potential drilling contract. SPM would cover future rig costs.

Reports that the entire Brazilian market has been halted

IEA chief Fatih Birol says there is no credible pathway back to pre-conflict conditions. Oil is flirting with $120/bbl, while diesel and gasoil tightness could persist into mid-2027.

He accurately predicted the entire vote trajectory

Historic moment for the people of Brazil

Democracy won

Saudi Arabia plans to store crude in Singapore from H2 2027, using caverns with a capacity for ~9M barrels. The shift brings Saudi supply closer to Asian buyers.

VLCCs could face their biggest delivery wave in 50 years: 100+ new ships/year in 2028 and 2029. 319 ships are on order, 34% of today’s fleet, while crude loadings fell 6% YoY in Jan–Sep 2026.

Aframax earnings just hit a record $385,000/day. At the same time, LR2 earnings on the TC1 (Middle East Gulf–Japan) route reached a record $320,000/day. The most profitable tankers aren't necessarily the biggest anymore.