Trump’s unpredictability has become predictable. The pattern is now familiar: 1. Issue a maximalist threat or ultimatum 2. Prepare major military action 3. Pause or cancel the escalation 4. Announce that diplomacy could deliver a rapid breakthrough. Plus Iran’s more recent pre-emptive attack on a US base in Jordan suggests a possible shift in policy: 1. Tehran will no longer necessarily wait to be attacked first. 2. A pause by the US does not automatically give Washington control over the escalation ladder. 3. Iran can widen the economic and geographical costs of the conflict. @MartineBBC

During Ali Khamenei’s rule, Iran kept a self-imposed 2,000 km missile range cap. Now it’s targeting the US-UK base on Diego Garcia Island — nearly 3,800 km away. Is that a shift in doctrine? @MartineBBC