Tomas McIntee

I don’t think Palestinians will see a deal like that again. West Bank settlements have multiplied, Gaza has a new de facto border, and the conciliatory wing of Israeli politics is probably on the outs for a long while.

(3) Her fiancé has a personal incentive to publicly support AES in line with her endorsement. His opposition is almost certainly based on principles & objecting to AES being antisemitic, radical, dishonest, etc.

(1) Alito has strongly hinted he will retire in the lame duck period if Democrats take the Senate. Thomas is >50% likely to live past January 6th, 2033. (2) Abdul El-Sayed is bad for the Democratic Party. If he wins this year, it will cost Democrats in 2028, 2030, and 2032.

(1) “Dem base voters” are not the constituency of a member of Congress. They represent the citizenry. (2) Kamala Harris was not a centrist. (3) The median voter theorem remains undefeated.

More moderate members of Congress hold more positions that “the vast majority of their constituents want.” Hence why they perform better in the general election.

Seniority skews intraparty power in the direction of the members from the least competitive seats & away from the strongest electoral performers.

It’s not. But it’s not always the best choice for an ally with more limited capacity.

Do you favor kicking the Turks out of Constantinople? Russians out of Kaliningrad? Azeris out of Nagorno-Karabakh? Apaches out of Arizona? Almost every homeland was “taken from other people.” In the case of Israel, there are no claimants with earlier cultural continuity.

The Klob-Harris margin delta was 11.5 points.🤔

She has been pissing off some of the hardliners on her side, so yes, she is genuinely running on the moderate path. YMMV in office, but usually seeing which own-side partisans get mad is a good indicator.

Hard to know if they’re using the wrong LV model or if the other pollsters are. This batch is either the NYT going wild or a sign that many other pollsters are wrong.

All of the polls are LV. I really want to see RV numbers, so I can compare across polls - it’s clear pollster LV models are wildly at odds with each other.

Their numbers for MN are a big outlier compared to the (admittedly limited) prior polling. Either way, *someone* in the polling game is doing something methodologically off.

The argument I have seen before, usually in relation to the AFD in Germany, is that if the party is “firewalled” by the mainstream, it can’t possibly be part of government. They can certainly force the parties inside the firewall to make uglier and less functional coalitions.

Counterpoint: If a nation does not have the combination of technical and logistical capacity to keep it functional, the F-35 would just be an unusable hangar queen. Germany was having trouble keeping less sophisticated Eurofighters operational a few years ago.

This is literally what happened to to millions of ethnic Germans and Japanese after WWII. The precedent of “you started the war, you lost, you can go **** off and live with your coethnics somewhere else” was accepted in general principles by the OG architects of the UN.

The other ~98% of persons displaced in the late 1940s were told to make peace with their new homes. This has been pretty much the standard for refugee resettlement after the lessons on revanchism provided by WWI and WWII.

Former governor who had resigned in disgrace? Yes.

8ish? NC polls close at 7:30, NC is fast to count, & Roy Cooper is far enough ahead in enough of the polls that if he loses, we should open up the D->R flip map. Which is maybe Sununu in New Hampshire, a fast-counting high-elasticity state with 7 pm poll closures.

I think the changes in border crossing statistics are broadly compatible with the theoretical result that interior deportations deter illegal border crossings. If all illegals are subject to deportation, the incentive to cross is reduced. The disincentive increases with cruelty.