Chief Operating & Financial Officer @PFN365 | Writer/Curator of Miami Dolphins Today newsletter | Wins are not a QB stat
New Jersey, USA
Joined December 2008
- Tweets65.9K
- Following251
- Followers13.5K
- Likes174
Dante Moore's situation is a cautionary tale for guys like Drew Mestemaker, Darian Mensah, and CJ Carr.
Moore was a lock to be a top-3 pick in 2026. He chose to return to Oregon (likely for a nice NIL payday). But then the '26 season happened. Even before the terrible injury, his play on the field was tanking his 2027 draft stock.
These top college QBs really should strike while the iron's hot.
The @PFN365 model essentially has this game as a toss-up.
Two years ago the Eagles won the Super Bowl.
Tonight they're missing their QB, their top two receivers and their right tackle.
I used to work at Robinhood. Now I build NFL models, grade every pick in public, and I'm about to make the whole model free. Last week: 8 and 5.
My forecast had Philadelphia by 0.15 this morning. A coin flip.
Then I did the injury check I promised yesterday.
Jalen Hurts: injured reserve.
DeVonta Smith: out.
Dontayvion Wicks: out.
Lane Johnson: retired.
Saquon Barkley: questionable after missing two straight.
The pick flips. Dallas over Philadelphia.
But not by much. Vegas has Dallas by 4.5. I think Dallas wins by a field goal, not a touchdown. Philly's backups keep it closer than people expect.
Is this the end of the Eagles era, or does Philly shock everyone tonight?
Graded tomorrow. Follow so you don't miss the model when it goes live.
Matt Infante retweeted
🎯 Highest EPA per dropback among NFL QBs in Week 7 so far:
1. Malik Willis, MIA (+0.65)
2. Joe Burrow, CIN (+0.59)
3. Sam Darnold, SEA (+0.51)
4. Caleb Williams, CHI (+0.40)
5. Drake Maye, NE (+0.39)
6. Geno Smith, NYJ (+0.37)
7. Bo Nix, DEN (+0.35)
8. Tyler Shough, NO (+0.29)
9. Jared Goff, DET (+0.28)
10. Michael Penix Jr., ATL (+0.26)
This is an example of how a 4-yard pass is much more impressive than the box score shows.
Look at Malik Willis stop, drop the arm angle, and make an accurate pass, knowing he's about to get hit.
Among players with more than 20 pass rush opportunities in Week 7, only one player had a higher pressure rate than Chop Robinson (21.7%), per Next Gen Stats.
Chop is ranked 11th by @PFN365 in Week 7 among all EDGE defenders.
Per @PFN365's NFL Impact grades, Malik Willis' performance on Sunday was given a preliminary grade of 86.2.
That was the second-best performance of the week and the 11th-best QB performance of the 2026 season.
It's also the 6th-best performance by a Dolphins QB since 2023.
Malik Willis made a statement today with his performance.
🎯 The highest-graded NFL quarterbacks of Week 7 so far, per PFN’s QB Impact metric:
1. Joe Burrow, CIN (88.9)
2. Malik Willis, MIA (86.2)
3. Drake Maye, NE (83.4)
4. Geno Smith, NYJ (82.6)
5. Caleb Williams, CHI (81.6)
6. Michael Penix Jr., ATL (81.5)
7. Tyler Huntley, BAL (80.6)
8. Tyler Shough, NO (80.4)
9. Deshaun Watson, CLE (78.4)
10. Brock Purdy, SF (75.1)
*Grades are provisional
Austin Jackson has remembered that he's Austin Jackson.
Jackson entered the week as literally the worst tackle in the NFL, per the @PFN365 Impact grades.
At 2:48 pm ET, the top 3 QBs in EPA per dropback this week are:
Malik Willis
Tyler Huntley
J.J. McCarthy
Just as we all thought.
The Dolphins are not getting behind the sticks on their first two possessions.
No penalties. No sacks.
And they have touchdown drives of 76 and 60 yards.
Amazing how that works.
Several big plays on the Dolphins' first possession.
Caleb Douglas then gets his first career touchdown.
And the Dolphins get their first lead of 2026. Against the Jets.
The Jersey native Jeff Hafley getting his first career win as a head coach in his first game in NJ?
It makes for a fun talking point.
The bigger story is that this might be Miami's best chance to get their first win -- and they might not have another good opportunity to win until mid-November against the Colts.
Give me Jeremiah Smith, Drew Mestemaker, or Colin Simmons please.
Somebody order a 2027 NFL mock draft? I got you covered. profootballnetwork.com/2027-…
