Keeping an eye on the long range MJO forecasts CFS has some MJO activity across the Pacific around mid November This could lead to a risk of the first real cold snap of the "season" in late Nov/early Dec Other factors involved but something to watch #UKweather #LakeDistrict

Models struggling with MJO Some getting MJO into phase 3 Thats heights to the E, just like what we've got coming up, if that were to develop again combined with any "drips" from SSW, then the potential would be there for some colder air to feed in from the NE, later in Nov. But this is purely speculation

How things aloft develop after this SSW is really unknown The seasonal models didnt see this on their October updates SO do we see a weak PV continue well into winter, with the trop leading the way? Or do we see a rapid recovery with a quick imprint lower down(meaning more unsettled perhaps)? Do we still see a big disruption later in winter like the seasonals modelled? Lots of spinning plates

We are looking at a strong disruption of the Polar Vortex Could become a technical SSW, which would be the earliest recorded What does this mean? Very hard to tell at the moment. We could see blocking patterns mid/late Nov into Dec, but this is uncertain #UKweather

So then High pressure to end October, and lasting through first 7-10 days of November seems likely Plenty dry weather, risk of fog and inversions perhaps Wind becoming light #UKweather #LakeDistrict

Uncharted territory going into the winter season…… 🤔 *Potential* for the earliest Sudden Strat Warming on record In other news, I am continuing to add cold weather gear to my hiking arsenal

High pressure is coming

Evening all Can’t wait for some Arctic air! #LakeDistrict

Good evening all youtube.com/watch?v=baoQnUfO…

Another mountain rescue callout With the days rapidly shortening it is crucial to pack TWO head torches I always have 2 with me, a Petzl Swift RL and a Petzl Bindi And of course enough layers and protection to keep you warm and dry 👍🏻 #LakeDistrict cumbriacrack.com/2026/10/22/…

Looks like the high not lasting as long as first thought now Probably fading through Tues/wed Might be some dampness spreading in the E/SE on Sat/Sun Disappointing!

Evening Hopefully won’t be too long before scenes like this I’m prepping all my outdoor gear ready for cold conditions I will be out in the coldest weather showing the scenes Anyone who likes mountain scenes let me know, gives me extra motivation to go out 👍🏻 #LakeDistrict

Good evening all

High pressure is on the way folks From this weekend Potential for inversions (fingers crossed) Dry Think it'll last for 5-7 days at least #UKweather #LakeDistrict