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The metaverse
Joined February 2022
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MetaCritic Capital retweeted
AI is creating so much volatility right now, which you can see everywhere except in the volatility statistics.
MetaCritic Capital retweeted
ok to put what i'm saying about demand in context
openrouter is the most successful model router, you can almost serve 100% of their deepseek traffic yesterday on a single GB300 rack
this is worth 6-7M...even if there's 10x this demand secretly that's still < 100M of compute
MetaCritic Capital retweeted
if dario has that dog in him (I think he does), the sequence of distillation ARR flush -> Opus 5.5 best model on planet earth -> reaccel -> October ARR disclosure -> Fable 5.5 so good it's scary -> $2T IPO might make for the most epic pre-IPO run of all time
MetaCritic Capital retweeted
If you want to understand what happened with the votes in the Brazilian election, this chat with Fable 5.1 explains it:
claude.ai/share/bf6861f1-4e8…
MetaCritic Capital retweeted
golden age
Cliff Sosin (@CliffordSosin) is one of my favorite people to call, ask some big questions, and then shut up and listen.
This conversation is a version of one of those calls.
We discuss:
- The limits of intelligence
- Owning the complements to it
- Meta, the frontier labs, and the AI build-out
- Capital markets
- Why he's comfortable with 80% of his portfolio in Carvana.
TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Intro
10:41 The Limits of Intelligence
18:03 Investing Beyond Cheap Intelligence
24:03 Will AI Become Commoditized?
35:10 Who Profits From AI?
43:00 AI Agents Reshape Competition
52:06 America's Capital Markets
58:04 Transforming Companies With AI
68:19 AI and Portfolio Concentration
73:16 Education in the AI Era
MetaCritic Capital retweeted
% of Anthropic compute & infra spend dedicated towards training+R&D / inference, per S-1:
2023: 94% / 6%
2024: 70% / 30%
H1 2025: 56% / 44%
H2 2025: 65% / 35%
H1 2026: 73% / 27%
inference share peaked H1 2025
if inference efficiencies continue to compound faster than training efficiencies, not hard to imagine a world where, despite continued inference growth, the terminal state of compute demand is that it is ~ all dedicated to training
believe this is much more likely than the consensus view that it is ends up being ~ all inference (though both will likely be important demand sources for some time)
MetaCritic Capital retweeted
I see this chart a bit differently:
- New companies are able to design their org/GTM from zero, and are adopting AI furiously
- Enterprises have cultural, political and technical reasons to move much slower on AI adoption
That’s pretty much it
MetaCritic Capital retweeted
Interesting piece. If compute gets much more expensive, maybe the only economically useful application of AI will be in hardening cybersecurity against AI.
New blog post on what would be true about the world if trendline continues and leading lab hits $1T in revenue by the end of next year.
In other words, why compute might get 10x+ more expensive in coming years
dwarkesh.com/p/why-compute-m…
MetaCritic Capital retweeted
ken griffin, founder of the $77 bn hedge fund firm citadel, has little patience for blaming every losing trade on hedge fund deleveraging.
he says people love that explanation because it removes their own accountability.
his first questions are about the prices changing, the information his team lacks, and what other investors may have worked out.
only after exhausting those paths does he want to discuss who might be forced to sell.
his concern with reaching for that explanation too quickly:
“I actually stop learning.”
MetaCritic Capital retweeted
The definition of a tech company is a company whose stock goes up. The definition of an AI company is a company whose stock and whose CDS go up.
MetaCritic Capital retweeted
“Passive killed Value” is the other side of the coin of HF guys always saying “hedge fund unwind” to explain losses … just all cope
King Ken laughs at it … Value guys cry
David Einhorn explains why the value investing industry has been defeated, and walks through how it leaves Greenlight as a "dinosaur"
“The market structure has changed, and there has been what I consider to be a broken market, or the value investing industry, I think, is defeated, so to speak."
"It used to be that most money was invested by these long-only investors, these big mutual funds and stuff like that."
"And they had money coming in every day, and they were getting nice fees on all of that money, and they had large research teams, and they would sit around following all of the companies with teams of analysts and they would say this company we think is undervalued by 30% and it might be a growth stock or a value stock or Magnificent Seven or otherwise, but they would say I think this is undervalued by 30% and if I buy it and I hold it I’ll make the S&P plus 30."
"Now as we’ve moved to passive they’ve lost their customers and the remaining customers are paying them lower fees and they have reduced their research staffs and they don’t have new money coming in to make new investments in any case."
"But the market is now dominated by passives, index funds, which buy what everyone else has already decided things are worth, or algorithms, which are basically trying to figure out what is everybody else doing and how do I front run that, or retail, which is buying things because they think it’s cool or they think it’s going up."
"And so most of the investing these days is no longer done by people who are buying something because they think it’s worth more. They have opinions about price, like what is the price going to be tomorrow. And so the result is most trading that is going on right now has nothing to do with value."
"So it leaves us sort of as a dinosaur. We’re one of the remaining few people left who are looking at things on a traditional basis.”
MetaCritic Capital retweeted
Um,
Companies are, in fact, vibe coding vendors out of existence.
Things are gonna get spicy
MetaCritic Capital retweeted
The truth is there are far fewer AI-maxis within the investing class than you might otherwise think.
Plenty of bottleneck bros. Lots of hyperscale truthers. Abundant semiconductor enjoyers. Infinite momo lovers.
But people who have actually glimpsed the future because they can think non-linearly and instantly understood Leo’s message back in mid-2024… an incredibly small handful.
The most fascinating part has been that neither Claude Code or Astra changed this.
The same people who can think abstractly before the proofpoint continue to be able to after. And everyone else still needs to be spoon fed.
I’d estimate within the TMT L/S community sub-5% are true maxis.
And no Coatue isn’t maxi. Neither is Gavin who I respect the fuck out of. But he’s rationally optimistic but cautious.
Maxi’s start with the assumption that models can be scaled up well past human intellect at a pace that the human mind can’t project and the economic value of that scale up is exponentially larger than existing gdp. Human bottlenecks are irrelevant as models get smarter.
And with that north star we work backwards because path function matters and we have to pay rent until the robots are made.
It’s a very different headspace vs starting with the premise that hyperscalers are likely to milk a couple hundred billion in cloud revs if this all goes to shit.
MetaCritic Capital retweeted
Management meetings/field research is more important than ever. Assume 75% of the work you do at your desk for 8-12 hours a day will be done better by agents running 24/7. Being on the road more should be part of the job description for analysts.
Model build tests as a screen to hire analysts will eventually go away and perhaps be replaced with mock management interviews or mock information synthesis.
Being a nob in shared meetings, sabotaging yourself and those you share with will become fatal.
Every possible input into the numbers inside one of the three financial statements – product, sales, distribution, input costs, discretionary opex, balance sheet utilization, capital allocation, etc , etc, etc . . . . seemingly always fall into one of two buckets.
1.) Things within management’s control.
and
2.) Things outside their control.
When given the opportunity to meet with company executives, it’s almost always more productive, when faced with limited time, to ask specifically about things they control. There are certain questions only management can answer. Ask those questions first. Too much time in management meetings is spent asking execs to speculate on short term things outside of their control.
MetaCritic Capital retweeted
If these bankers spoil Anthropic’s IPO they deserve a dunce hat.
Expectations should have never been allowed to go to $2T.
Morons.
MetaCritic Capital retweeted
I love that the market now hinges on a private US comapny reporting a european style mid-year sales update with everything riding on an unaudited, secondhand revenue number comped against a vague expectation that may or may not already have been revised down with the potential kicker of some "first two weeks of october" color... this is peak efficient market hypothesis