Carlos GeoTecnoEconoPolitics

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 Pentagon estimates Iran war caused up to $15 billion in damage to US military bases, WSJ reports.

🚨 ELON MUSK SAYS PHONES AND APPS WILL DISAPPEAR SOON Elon Musk believes traditional phones will be gone in 5 to 6 years. The device we use will turn into a simple edge node for AI. It will handle AI video and show you content without any apps or operating systems. Everything will come straight from AI. It will know what you might want and deliver it directly. Most music and videos people watch will be AI generated. The phone will just show the pixels and play the sounds the AI picks for you.

The Trump administration does not plan to recognize Flavio Bolsonaro as the legitimate leader of Brazil, despite having helped him flee to the United States after his defeat in the elections. This was reported by Reuters, which noted that Trump approved his entry on humanitarian grounds, after White House advisor Jason Miller helped arrange his flight from Argentina. Initially, Bolsonaro declared himself the "elected president," and then changed his statement, calling himself the "legitimate leader" of Brazil. Trump still does not want to damage relations with President Lula, whom he says he has a good relationship with, the news agency notes.

Map of the AI startups around San Francisco. 😳

Venezuela tiene un camino claro. Avanzamos hacia una transformación democrática, económica y social, con reformas a la justicia, diálogo y decisiones que se traduzcan en mejoras concretas de la calidad de vida de los venezolanos.

ÚLTIMA HORA: El ex presidiario de Brasil Lula Da Silva Da a conocer que en próximos días estará presentando una propuesta en el Senado para aumentar los impuestos al 31.3%, lo que convertiría a Brasil en la nación con el IVA más caro del planeta. 🇧🇷

🇨🇳 Controlled nuclear fusion has long been one of the greatest challenges facing scientists worldwide. On Bilibili, I watched footage presented by Chinese scientists showing the interior of EAST, a fusion device independently built by China. EAST has now achieved steady-state high-confinement plasma operation for 1,066 seconds at temperatures exceeding 100 million degrees Celsius. This is a major step forward in fusion research and a reminder of China's growing role in shaping the future of clean energy. China’s scientific community has no kings, no obsession with awards and no elite self-congratulation. It is driven by one determination: to bring science out of the laboratory and put it to work for humanity. China does not need Nobel Prizes to prove its worth. Chinese technology is not about accolades or trophies. It is about solving real problems and genuinely serving the people. China is not just transforming the world—it is building the future!

TIMELINE OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION (1930-1932): I am posting this since I believe that we are now at the edge of the cliff to Great Global Depression. The only other analog in economic history is the 1930-1932 period. 1) Oct 1929: stock market blows up. While this is considered as the main reason for the Great Depression by almost all Xtards and econotards, by the Spring 1930, the stock market mostly recovers. So, stock market crash has really nothing to do with the Depression. 3) Spring 1930: populist isolationist wave, equivalent to MAGA movement today. How that came out to be is beyond the scope of this post. If you do not understand MAGA, you cannot understand 1930 populism. But they emerged and existed for real. 4) June 1930: Congress passes Smoot-Hawley tariffs, which had a net average rate of 15% on imports. This tariff level is same as today, but much higher than 2% of post 1990 globalization era & less that what TACO started announcing in July (which is heading to 20-30% range). 5) Trade volumes start dropping immediately(happening today as well), and both exports & imports drop by -70% over the next two years. 6) Inflation starts decreasing, reaching -10% in a year and staying -10% through 1932. 7) Unemployment rate starts shooting up shortly after tariffs, climbing steadily until the end of 1932, reaching 30%. 8) As trade reduces revenue and debt cannot be serviced, banks start busting by the end of 1930 & continue through 1931. 9) Retail sales drop & industrial production drop by -50% by the end of 1932, immediately following on the imposition of tariffs. 10) In 1931, Germany, the second largest export county of that time, runs into troubles under tariffs & cannot service debts to US, left from WW1. 11) In June 1931, Hoover circulates the idea of debt moratorium to Germany. 12) In the Fall of 1931, debt moratorium fails, probably because Wall Street kills it. Riots start in Germany. Do not lose sight of the Centers of Usury through the Depression. Analog of today is H4L, with Powell/Fed & Dimon claiming that inflation is coming & rates might go up. They will NEVER let go of the debt that have injected since 1980s. 13) The inability of Germany to pay back debt spread to their UK debts. UK drops gold convertibility under financial strain to be able to print money. Many other European countries start printing money. 14) Starting in September 1931, FX rates of UK, Norway, Canada, Sweden start dropping up to -30% wrt to USD$. This devaluation of currencies helps with $ debt crisis, but drives the second phase of deflation in the US. 15) In the Fall of 1931, there is a renewed wave of bank failures in the US & up to 32,000 businesses fail. 16) In 1932, President & Congress are passing laws to give more powers to the Fed to print money & Fed starts purchasing US bonds tripling their holdings. These help mostly the stock market movements. Wall Street gets socialism. 17) At the same time, summer 1932, Hoover gets worried about tax income dropping under high unemployment & business failures and passes balanced budget law, to increase taxes & cutting federal spending. Main Street gets capitalism. We are now two years into the depression. 18) Nominal growth drops by -30% by the end of 1932 wrt to 1930. 19) Hitler comes to power in 1932. 20) Japan invades Manchuria and Shanghai. 21) Stocks drop by 90% by 1933, but there are 7 bear-market rallies ranging from 20% to 84% each, all fueled by various narratives and gov news. 22) With Roosevelt's election & MMT, the cycle is disrupted for 5 years but comes back in 1938. (That is for another post.)

Weimar printed money to devalue their currency and pay off excessive war reparations to other countries. It was a plan executed by the leadership. Once the debt was under control & US interfered, Germany shifted to land-based commodity currency & inflation was gone overnight. Not what is going on today, We are on a debt-based system. As debt goes up, inflation becomes impossible. Therefore, no inflation was generated as a result massive Fed easing since GFC. We are now heading back to deflation, even though everybody predict high inflation for the past 17 years.

BREAKING: 🇧🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸 Former Mossad operative got Bolsonaro out of Brazil, per CNN Brazilian Senator Flávio Bolsonaro fled Brazil with his wife and two daughters in a coordinated international operation involving assistance from a former Mossad operative, Argentina, and the U.S. The family crossed into Argentina on October 27 in two separate vans through the Tancredo Neves Bridge. A former Mossad operative, now a naturalized U.S. citizen, accompanied Bolsonaro during the escape, while officials linked to Argentine President Javier Milei assisted the operation. The family subsequently boarded a private Gulfstream jet, stopped in Ecuador, and arrived in Miami on October 28. The private jet was arranged by Trump adviser Jason Miller.