MikeB

Why I like LeBron tonight 👇 LeBron has been getting to the line consistently at home, averaging 6.47 FTA across his last 15 home games with a 93% hit rate over this number. He’s also cleared 3 FTA in 100% of his home games this season, averaging 4.8 attempts. Boston has been a softer matchup for PF free-throw volume, and LeBron’s recent home usage gives him plenty of chances to draw contact.

Why I like Amen tonight 👇 Amen has cleared 12.5 first-half PRA in 12 of 13 games this season, averaging 16.58 PRA in the first half. He’s also hit this in 9 of his last 10, averaging 16.8 PRA over that stretch. Against Phoenix, he’s gone over in 4 of the 5 matchups shown, with first-half PRA totals of 27, 20, 17, 12 and 17. The role and production have been extremely consistent early in games, and this line is still sitting well below his season average.

Why I like McDaniels tonight 👇 McDaniels has cleared this line in 9 of his last 10 games, averaging 6.8 over that stretch. With Anthony Edwards out, McDaniels has had much a bigger scoring role and more opportunities inside the arc. New Orleans has also been a favorable matchup for opposing PFs, ranking near the bottom of the league in 2-point makes allowed to the position. He is a DAWG. Lock it in

Why I like Hill tonight 👇 Hill has seen 3+ targets in 4 of his last 5 games, averaging 4.4 targets over that stretch. Jacksonville has also been a favorable matchup for RB involvement in the passing game, ranking 26th against RB targets over the last 5. The biggest thing for me is the QB situation. In the last game with Joe at QB, Hill saw 8 targets, and with the backup looking uncomfortable, I expect Baltimore to lean on shorter throws and checkdowns. Hill should have plenty of chances to get involved through the air tonight.

Why I like Matty tonight 👇 With Jared McCann out he is averaging 20.68 at home. Beniers is averaging 19.03 minutes over his last 10 home games and has cleared 18 minutes in 7 of those 10. He’s also on PP1, and Calgary is committing the 8th-most penalties per game this season at 4.33 - giving him a strong chance to pick up extra ice time on the power play. He should easily be over 19 tonight.

Hughes is averaging 30.10 minutes in away games without Spurgeon and 28.60 minutes in away games without Faber. He’s also cleared 27 minutes in every road game shown without Spurgeon, including 29.7+ in each of his last two. We only need 27+ minutes tonight. Hughes might play close to 30.

Why I like Sheppard tonight 👇 Sheppard has cleared 7 FG attempts in 6 of his first 7 games this season, averaging 10.14 attempts. The only miss came in a game where he played just 15 minutes — outside of that, the shot volume has been extremely consistent. He’s also cleared this number in 14 of his last 15 games overall, averaging 12.8 FG attempts across that stretch. If his minutes are normal tonight, 8 attempts feels sweat free.