Investment manager of ASYMMETRY® | Managed Portfolios for asymmetric risk/reward. Edge, trend, momentum, convexity, optionality, flows, sentiment, volatility.

Knoxville, Tennessee
Joined April 2009
Having tactically traded through the 1998 Russian crisis and LTCM collapse, the dot-com bubble and crash, the 2007–09 financial crisis, the COVID shock, and everything since—I can’t stress this enough: The best countertrend setups don’t come from just buying dips. They come after failed breakdowns or clear bullish divergences. Without those signals, you’re simply buying weakness and hoping for a bounce.
62
169
17
2,065
309,443
Mike Shell | Asymmetry® retweeted
Rally US reveals more 🇺🇸 A Nashville ceremonial start, a Knoxville base and gravel stages across Tennessee and Kentucky. The WRC’s return to America is taking shape 👀 wrc.com/en/news/rally-us-rev…
3
68
22
341
38,160
If true, some computer systems that plan things (delivery routes, factory schedules, chip designs, certain AI searches) might eventually get a little faster than experts thought possible. That could mean slightly better logistics, cheaper computing for hard problems, or new algorithms showing up in software years from now. Probably won’t change your phone, Netflix, or everyday apps anytime soon, and it doesn’t give anyone a magic button to solve hard problems instantly.
An internal model at OpenAI has produced a claimed refutation of ETH! Russell Impagliazzo, Mohan Paturi, and I have been asked to help organize an open and independent examination of this claim. 1/4
1
597
The most exciting time to be alive in human history. AI-driven progress is convex, not linear, and healthcare is next. The edge: stay healthy. Stay alive. Longevity is about to expand.
1
4
2,976
Mike Shell | Asymmetry® retweeted
Entering Twitter HQ – let that sink in!
58,151
154,877
42,866
1,224,879
The $80B headline is mostly accounting noise. The real question is why investors are willing to mark Anthropic dramatically higher while the business is still losing money. That says far more about what the market is willing to pay for future AI dominance than it does about today’s economics.
1
3
625
Mike Shell | Asymmetry® retweeted
You can't control the ocean, but you can steer your boat.
2
7
1,003
You can't control the ocean, but you can steer your boat.
2
7
1,003
“Life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness” comes from the Declaration of Independence. It expresses the idea that governments exist to protect basic individual rights rather than control people’s personal choices.
2
9
690
The kind of things we saw in the late 1990s. Fidelity raising RIA minimum to $100M, now this.
3
378
Mike Shell | Asymmetry® retweeted
130.3 db at Neyland Stadium 😱 The highest verified noise record in college football history 🔉 @Vol_Football
111
722
87
5,907
400,192
Mike Shell | Asymmetry® retweeted
NEW: Tennessee set the highest scientifically verified dB record in College Football history against Alabama on this play (130.3), the school announced. (via ABC) xitter.cf/gmannVOLS/status/21116…
292
1,862
302
15,661
2,551,022
Covered in coyote on this chilly Tennessee morning.
3
384
Mike Shell | Asymmetry® retweeted
Next year, I will give one of my SpaceX shares to every kid in America. This will be the first of many.
45,364
63,639
14,709
624,207
36,853,380
Mike Shell | Asymmetry® retweeted
"Capitalism is the force that drove down the price of almost everything it touched. The state is the force that blew up the price of almost everything it captured. And young people blame the first for the crimes of the second."
On my way to the office this morning, I passed a group of young people protesting, a Palestinian flag draped over their shoulders. And I asked myself a question I can't shake: why does this generation always fall into the same trap? No matter the history. No matter the context. Even the ones from wealthy families, who went to the best schools, who were dealt every good card. Always the same trap. I don't think it's stupidity. I think it's a mechanism. And a mechanism can be taken apart, piece by piece. A. The observation: everything the state touches becomes unaffordable. Look at economist Mark Perry's famous chart, the one people call "the chart of the century." It tracks US prices since 2000. At the top, what explodes: hospital services, college tuition, textbooks, childcare, housing. Increases of +100%, +150%, up to +250%, far above general inflation. At the bottom, what collapses: TVs, software, phones, toys, clothing. A TV today costs a fraction of what it did in 2000, for an infinitely better product. Look at what separates the two groups. It isn't technology. It isn't complexity. It's one variable: how much the state is involved. At the top, sectors that are subsidized, regulated, shielded from competition, where the state funds demand and blocks supply. At the bottom, sectors where companies fight every single morning to serve you better and cheaper. B. The mechanism: why it's systematic. When the state subsidizes demand without freeing supply, prices rise. Every time. Guaranteed student loans, and universities raise tuition. Housing aid plus blocked building permits, and rents skyrocket. Administered healthcare, and bureaucracy eats the budget before it ever reaches the patient. In France it's even more vicious, because the price doesn't disappear: it hides. You never see the hospital bill, you pay it through payroll contributions. You never see the cost of school, you pay it through taxes. Public spending at 57% of GDP, one of the heaviest tax burdens in the world, more than €3.4 trillion in debt. And the result? Overflowing ERs, falling PISA scores, young people who can't afford to live in the city where they work. The market didn't fail in these sectors. It was never allowed in. C. Suffering demands a culprit. A 22-year-old lives all of this in their bones. They can't find a place to live. Their degree either buries them in debt or opens no doors. The future feels blocked. That suffering is real, and I don't deny it for a second. But human beings can't stand suffering without a culprit. They need a face. A scapegoat. And this is where everything is decided: who taught them how to read the world? D. Whoever tells the story picks the villain. Schools are public. Universities are public. Culture runs on grants. Film goes through funding committees. Public broadcasting shapes the narratives. The people handing down the interpretive framework are, overwhelmingly, paid by the very system that creates the problem. Do you really think that system is going to name itself as the culprit? No. It names the capitalist. The boss. The landlord. "The rich." The multinational. The commercial West. Same role, same casting, every time. E. One lens, a thousand causes. And this brings me back to that flag. A generation taught to read every situation through a single lens, oppressor on one side, rich, Western, capitalist, oppressed on the other, will apply that lens everywhere. To housing. To climate. To conflicts on the other side of the world. The cause changes, the lens stays. That's why the trap is always the same: it's not the cause that draws them in, it's the way of thinking that was installed in them. F. The perfect inversion. Here's the irony. Capitalism is the force that drove down the price of almost everything it touched. The state is the force that blew up the price of almost everything it captured. And young people blame the first for the crimes of the second. It's like blaming the firefighter for the fire because you saw him at the scene. G. The ballot box confirms it. In the US, a few weeks out from the midterms, a large share of urban young voters is getting ready to vote Democrat for more state, more spending, more regulation. New York elected a self-described socialist mayor, carried by young voters, on promises of rent freezes and city-run grocery stores. Rent freezes, the policy that has made housing scarcer everywhere it's been tried. The cure that worsens the disease. In France, it's the same play in two acts. Part of the youth votes for the radical left, which promises more state. Another part votes for the center, which promises to "manage" the state well, and has dug the debt deeper than ever. Two different ballots, one shared assumption: the problem is the market, the solution is the state. H. The way out. These young people aren't stupid. They're right to be angry. They're just aiming at the wrong target. The day they understand that their rent, their tuition and their hospital are expensive precisely because the state runs them, their anger will change direction. They'll stop protesting against those who create. They'll start protesting against those who capture. That day, the greatest intellectual scam of our time will be over.
60
588
34
2,609
117,816
Mike Shell | Asymmetry® retweeted
she's a vibe 💨 @Vol_Football
24
196
21
2,773
76,799
Mike Shell | Asymmetry® retweeted
Good morning, Alabama fans!
287
574
50
6,700
202,526
Mike Shell | Asymmetry® retweeted
holy smokes they got knowles to buss down
193
2,558
294
16,001
1,045,963
Mike Shell | Asymmetry® retweeted
Turns out the future does have flying cars
47,966
99,919
32,765
834,017
79,420,336