Moonlit Monkey (@MoonlitMonkey69) header
Moonlit Monkey (@MoonlitMonkey69) profile picture

Kiwi. Pragmatic realist-centrist. Reason serves instinct, does not rule it. 'debate' w/o good faith, honesty, manners, or substance = blocked

The Circus
Joined February 2021
Photo by Moonlit Monkey (@MoonlitMonkey69)Photo by Moonlit Monkey (@MoonlitMonkey69)Photo by Moonlit Monkey (@MoonlitMonkey69)Photo by Moonlit Monkey (@MoonlitMonkey69)Photo by Moonlit Monkey (@MoonlitMonkey69)Photo by Moonlit Monkey (@MoonlitMonkey69)Photo by Moonlit Monkey (@MoonlitMonkey69)Photo by Moonlit Monkey (@MoonlitMonkey69)Photo by Moonlit Monkey (@MoonlitMonkey69)Photo by Moonlit Monkey (@MoonlitMonkey69)
Strong, open disagreement is exactly what makes consensus building possible in genuinely decentralized crypto, and also makes it very very hard. If the dissent part rubs you the wrong way, the consensus part probably isn't the right hill for you to try to climb.
1
4
196
You spend months waiting for a little exciting price action, and then get days of fireworks.
8
900M BTC longs rekt so far. Proper trapped they were.
1
33
Now, does this candle close bearish engulfing. Are we in a bear bull chop scenario, or do the bears have an upper hand?
23
I think the left is more naturally representive of the spirit of itself, the ideal of fairness, when it's for 'socialism' than when it's for identity politics.
2
119
Elon, Altman, Dario have all supported a pause on multiple occasions, including recently. They want this. They want it specifically because it's the only easy way they can become profitable. time.com/6266679/musk-ai-ope…
It’s a Brave New World
1
1
128
End race conditions? = can focus on efficiency and improve their margins. The alternative is a bubble pop. For US AI labs, a pause cannot come quick enough.
20
The least interesting title or headline I can imagine begins with "Anthropic says". I hear something resembling those words, and briefly flick directly into REM sleep.
1
87
How can you tell something is a bubble? Well, historically speaking, things that were bubbles, everyone called them a bubble.
4
63
The audacity of the extent of Trumps larp to pretend to care about his countrymen, is the legacy that will outlive him.
1
80
IF the Iran attack is going to happen, it'll probably happen by EOM, IMO. Trump has a deadline beyond which the democrats can attack the campaigns purse strings, and set limits on it's timespan.
76
A person using an LLM to try and understand something, is at a severe disadvantage to someone who just understands something.
2
118
I think the US effectively already has an AI slowdown. Where they restrict the newest models to govt, three letter agencies. Seems likely that will grow, not shrink. That prevents the likes of scientists for example, accessing the frontier.
1
3
141
I think economically, for the AI model makers themselves, a slowdown would be far more beneficial than the sort of gated/staggered release that imperial types or war hawks crave. They'd be able to maximize return, instead of burning capital non-productively.
1
26
I'm not honestly proposing a slow down. But I suspect gated access is likely to be worse, comparing the two.
16
I really don't much grasp this argument at all. The output of any model is literally text that can be posted on the internet, or distilled. The models themselves can be. How, supposedly, are higher benchmarking chatbots impacts limited to a countries borders?
At this important juncture of American history, I'd like to say few words that may impact countless lives: First, I still believe America 🇺🇸 will continue to lead the world in AI and, soon, in superintelligence. As a US citizen, I deeply hope that it does. However, if somehow America decides to pause AI development and undermine its own future, that will not stop the progress of super intelligence. The world is full of millions of brilliant, talented people who embrace the extraordinary empowerment that AI brings. There are also many countries that will gladly welcome the data centers, investments, and technological infrastructure that America turns away. China, with one of the world’s largest pools of AI talent and rapidly expanding energy and computing capacity, will quickly catch up and surpass the United States in the race toward superintelligence if America chooses to pause or slow down. Imagine the consequences if China becomes the first nation to command virtually unlimited digital supergeniuses and millions of highly intelligent robots. It will gain an overwhelming technological, economic, and strategic advantage over America and the rest of the world, reshaping the global balance of power forever. Yet billions of people around the world will also enter an extraordinary age of abundance, enjoying a quality of life equal to or better than what we have in America today. That's a great thing for humanity overall but not so good for America if we were to fall behind. My key point is this, ultimately, intelligence will continue to advance, and humanity will continue to progress and thrive, with or without America or European countries leading the way. Unfortunately thought, those who bring populist politicians to power to regulate, restrict, and slow technological progress will one day (in few years) deeply regret their choices. By then, however, it will be too late. Throughout history, power has changed hands many times because of disastrous decisions made by leaders and populations. Great civilizations have risen and fallen, often through their own shortsightedness. But this time will be fundamentally different. Once superintelligence becomes the foundation of economic, scientific, and technological power, the advantages of being first will compound at unprecedented speed. Those who fall behind will never be able to catch up. We have only a few years left before the outcome becomes irreversible. For some nations, it will be game over: their chance to become economic leaders will vanish, along with much of their global influence and power. For others, it will mark the dawn of an extraordinary new golden age of prosperity and unprecedented power. And inevitably, some will wield that power against others, just as humans have done throughout history whenever intelligence has given them an advantage. Let this be a final warning to those who fail to recognize what is at stake. Do not let fearmongers and populists convince you to embrace their agenda or accept their vision of a dystopian future. Do not allow fear of what might go wrong to blind you to everything that will go right. At the very least, look at history. One of the greatest reasons America became the world’s leading power was its extraordinary commitment to science, technology, innovation, and attracting and empowering brilliant minds. America prospered because it recognized the transformative power of human intelligence and created opportunities for that intelligence to flourish. And now, we stand at the threshold of the greatest explosion of intelligence in the history of life on Earth. There has never been a worse time to be shortsighted, intellectually complacent, or afraid of progress. And there has never been a better time to think from first principles, challenge conventional wisdom, and embrace the extraordinary possibilities ahead. So let this be my final warning: Embrace superintelligence with every ounce of ambition, courage, and determination we possess. It will be humanity’s greatest opportunity to solve virtually every problem we face, including those we do not yet even know exist. For the first time in the history of our species, we are approaching the ability to transcend our biological limitations, overcome diseases, reverse aging, eliminate scarcity, and free future generations from much of the suffering that humanity has endured for thousands of years. Think about what that means. We have spent the entirety of human civilization struggling against the limitations of our own biology and intelligence. Now, we are finally on the verge of breaking through those barriers. To turn away from that possibility, at the very moment it comes within our reach, will be one of the greatest tragedies in human history. We have a choice: help shape the greatest transformation civilization has ever experienced, or watch others build the future while we argue about whether it should exist. And perhaps, ironically, the best advice for this extraordinary moment is a new twist on my favorite motto: Stay foolish enough to believe the impossible is possible. Stay hungry for more intelligence, more discovery, and more abundance. And above all, never stop believing in and building the future. 🇺🇸
1
111
Honestly just fascinating psychology stuff in the markets sometimes. Market has decided that because the midterms vaguely constrain the length of any military operation, that suddenly the completely unchanged nature of the dispute is all fixed.
1
17
An interesting wrinkle to how the market has interpreted the midterms re the war: Congress doesn't come in till jan. They cannot restrict Trump fiscally in Iran till then. So there's actually the opposite in play: A time pressure to do the attack in the next two months.
20
Interesting market wide move. Looks energetic (but could just be relief from selling pressure). Will be keenly watching if there's a level reclaim or follow through.
72