Also on https://nitter.gq/t.co/kkjXuQGDtH - follow me there 🙃 // Communications @dena_news pushing renewables, ex-(Data) Journalist / Ex-@ndaktuell, ex-@YouGov_DE.
Berlin, Deutschland
Joined September 2016
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Moritz Wichmann retweeted
Biggest vote shifts to Democrats from 2024 to 2026, per NBC exit polls:
Independents +14
Under $50k +17
30-44 year olds +20
18-29 year olds +36
Economic populism works.
Moritz Wichmann retweeted
Biggest D gains in the US House popular vote versus 2022. Note that there are some slightly fancy adjustments here for uncontested districts:
Utah +29.5
North Dakota +28.6
Alabama +28.1
Indiana +24.6
Mississippi +23.7
Wyoming +23.0
Louisiana +21.7
All super red states.
Incumbency advantage for US congress down from 11 to 3 points 👇🏻
Crazy
🚨NEW HAMPSHIRE🚨
Democrats have won a *supermajority* in the New Hampshire House, which Republicans currently control. Democrats have also achieved their largest net gain in the New Hampshire Senate since 1847, when the Whigs were the opposition party.
They've flipped 99 House seats and 7 Senate seats.
9 House races are too close to call and could be affected by recounts.
New Hampshire results: projects.statenavigate.com/2…
Moritz Wichmann retweeted
Ein paar Updates mit neuen Zahlen aus dem Oktober. Vor allem das Ausmaß der Verluste ist größer geworden, viele Muster bleiben ähnlich. Allerdings entfremden sich mittlerweile auch Wähler, die an die politische Mitte verloren gingen, zunehmend von Merz und der Union. Thread🧵
Wäre kommenden Sonntag Bundestagswahl, würden CDU & CSU laut Umfragen rund ein Drittel ihrer Stimmen verlieren. Doch welche Wähler wenden sich ab und kann die Union sie zurückgewinnen? Eine Analyse mit Paneldaten seit Februar 2025.
Ein Thread 🧵(1/15)
juliuskoelzer.de/union-verlu…
Moritz Wichmann retweeted
Seit April sind die Bewertungen von Merz, der Union als Partei und ihrer Regierungsarbeit in allen Gruppen weiter eingebrochen. Auch Wechsler zu SPD/Grünen bewerten die Union und Merz inzwischen deutlich negativer. Letzteres gilt zunehmend auch für die verbliebenen Unionswähler.
Moritz Wichmann retweeted
🚨New in NBC News: How Abdul El-Sayed swung young men from Trump by 55 points in Michigan
"The El-Sayed team’s plan consisted of a laser focus on cost-of-living issues that proved especially salient for this age cohort, while showing a willingness to mix it up and go off script in spaces that might traditionally be hostile to Democrats. El-Sayed, 42, leaned into his millennial identity, as well as his ease talking about sports."
"The results were eye-popping. In Michigan, 66% of men between 18 and 29, who made up 7% of the electorate, backed El-Sayed, compared to 32% who supported his Republican opponent, former Rep. Mike Rogers, according to NBC News’ exit polling. That’s a 55-point shift toward Democrats from 2024, when Trump bested then-Vice President Kamala Harris by 21 points with this group."
“Young men chose Abdul because he chose us,” Milo Slevin, an El-Sayed campus organizing manager, said in a statement. “In every reel, town hall, and debate, we saw him acknowledge our anxieties about unmitigated AI growth, corrupt corporate politics, and the debilitating cost of living, and we saw him speak transparently about the bright future we can win when we fight back.”
nbcnews.com/politics/2026-el…
Moritz Wichmann retweeted
Good morning with good news: China's CO2 emissions from energy & industry fell 3.1% in Q3 2026 versus Q3 2025.
Emissions are flat or falling for 2.5 years.
Why?
Mainly, a HUGE rollout of renewables & EVs.
Coal fell from 70% share to 49.1% in 9/2026.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Moritz Wichmann retweeted
Across counties, there is not much evidence of direct policy effects on change in the Democratic House margin. Exposure to tariffs, gas price increases, and ICE arrests are unrelated to Democratic gains.
Moritz Wichmann retweeted
44 members of the incoming Democratic senate caucus are on the record in support of DC Statehood
the 10 who are NOT (by my tally):
AZ - Kelly
IL - Stratton
IA - Turek
KS - Hamilton
ME - King
MI - El-Sayed
MN - Flanagan
NC - Cooper
NH - Pappas
TX - Talarico
Moritz Wichmann retweeted
Class populism was common in Democratic campaigns before 2016, including increasingly negative references to the rich:
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/…
People are confusing a correct & specific critique of 2016 Clinton campaign with the incorrect claim the Sanders initiated this rhetoric
Moritz Wichmann retweeted
Moderate-affiliated candidates overperformed in swing areas; left-affiliated candidates overperformed in the most Democratic areas & underperformed in others
economist.com/graphic-detail…
Moritz Wichmann retweeted
WASHINGTON (AP) — Arizona Democrats gain a trifecta to control the state House, Senate and governor’s office for first time in 60 years.
Moritz Wichmann retweeted
Battery electric vehicles just had another record month in Germany.
37% of new cars registered in October were fully electric. Over the last 12 months, it was more than a quarter (27.2%).
Pure petrol vehicles dropped to an all-time low of 15.1%.
Moritz Wichmann retweeted
Breaking: China’s CO2 emissions fell 3.1% in Q3 of 2026, the largest drop since 2022 Covid lockdowns. High oil prices and EVs pushed down oil demand, clean energy growth displaced coal power, steel and cement emissions fell, and coal-to-chemicals industry growth kept slowing.
Moritz Wichmann retweeted
LaKesha Womack in #NC14:
- Supports Medicare-for-All
- On Israel: "I think any aid that we provide domestically or internationally should have conditions. ... Whether we're looking at SNAP benefits or USAID."
- On the speaker vote: "I definitely want to see who the options are and whoever is going to put forth the most progressive platform. And I don't think this is a time for us to be moderate."
axios.com/2026/11/06/house-d…
Moritz Wichmann retweeted
According to @davidshor, it's less important for candidates to be perceived as "moderate" than for them to be perceived as in touch with -- and focused on -- ordinary people's economic concerns.
(Though being seen as "moderate" also helps)
vox.com/politics/509476/midt…
Moritz Wichmann retweeted
To me, illustration of this is state trifectas. Democrats are projected to have 22 state trifectas, more than they have had in at least 36 years, and first lead in trifectas (+4) since the '10 GOP wave--which GOP used to gerrymander/consolidate in '14. It is the end of that era.
