Slot time has been decreased to 200ms. Solana is running at ~200ms since a while. It was widely thought this was going to cause troubles, but that's not what happened. We are few hours away from Alpenswitch, so it's useful to recap what happened 👇

There is one thing a lot of people in crypto don’t know about me: before joining the space I was obsessed with Bayesian analysis. One concept in particular stuck with me: dependency on the prior. This trained me to always ask “what happens if”. Since then I’ve tried to measure how much my conclusions depend on prior assumptions, and to update those priors when due. Prior updating is a very underrated concept. I find it the only way to actually understand a topic instead of just confirming what I already believed. Anyone should practice prior updating. That’s what I did after reading this. I updated my prior and checked for what I wasn’t looking at (because I'm dumb and I wasn't thinking hard). Yes: ~14% of the transactions from this informed searcher (the one using knowledge of future orderflow) buy after the trigger and close without any user transactions in between. 14%.

1/8 There are rumors of a new kind of sandwich on Solana. However, a sandwich needs one thing: knowing your trade before it lands. We looked at the on-chain data and found no sign of that. What we see is a momentum bet. 👇🧵