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Stocks Get Hammered as ES and NQ Plunge, Crude Oil Surges to $104.99, Gold Falls to $3,900 and Bonds Rally
MARKET RECAP — FRIDAY, OCTOBER 30, 2026
The ES and NQ are getting hammered again on Friday, the final trading day of October, as another wave of selling hits technology stocks, particularly the semiconductor and artificial intelligence sectors. The selling started overnight and carried into the regular session, with the Nasdaq taking the brunt of the damage.
The ES sold off to 7,613.00, down 141.25 points, or 1.82%, from Thursday's settlement of 7,754.25. The NQ plunged to 28,568.00, down 994.00 points, or 3.36%, from Thursday's settlement of 29,562.00.
The Nasdaq's losses are significantly larger than those of the S&P 500, highlighting the continued selling pressure in high-valuation technology and AI-related stocks.
The pressure intensified as investors digested earnings and guidance from Amazon ($AMZN) and Intel ($INTC). Investors are increasingly questioning whether the enormous amounts being invested in artificial intelligence infrastructure will generate sufficient returns. Concerns about capital spending, profitability and the sustainability of the AI boom continue to weigh on the technology sector.
Crude Oil ($CL) Rallies to $104.99
While equities continue to sell off, crude oil has moved sharply higher, trading up to $104.99 a barrel. Escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran and concerns about potential disruptions to Middle East energy supplies have helped support crude prices.
This is an unfavorable combination for the stock market. Higher crude oil prices can add to inflationary pressure just as investors are becoming increasingly concerned about the possibility of additional Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Gold ($GC) Plunges to $3,900
Gold has also come under heavy selling pressure, falling to $3,900 after breaking below the psychologically important $4,000 mark. The decline is particularly notable because gold is failing to attract sustained safe-haven buying despite the sharp selloff in the ES and NQ and rising geopolitical tensions.
The combination of falling stocks and falling gold suggests investors may be reducing risk and raising cash rather than simply rotating into precious metals.
U.S. Dollar ($DXY) Falls to 101.54 as Treasury Bonds Rally
Another notable development is the weakness in the U.S. dollar. The Dollar Index ($DXY) sold off to 101.54, while 30-year Treasury bond futures ($ZB) rallied to a reported 108.41 before pulling back to 107.53, up 0.20%.
The divergence is important. Normally, rising crude oil prices can put additional upward pressure on inflation expectations and Treasury yields. However, today's rally in bonds suggests investors are also seeking the relative safety of U.S. government debt as equities come under heavy pressure.
The weaker dollar, stronger bonds and lower stock prices indicate that investors are reassessing economic growth, interest rates and risk exposure.
Our View
What stands out today is the unusual combination of sharply lower equities, higher crude oil, a weaker dollar, a rally in Treasury bonds and heavy selling in gold.
The ES has traded down to 7,613, a decline of 1.82%, while the NQ plunged to 28,568, down 3.36% at the session low. Crude oil has rallied to $104.99, gold has dropped to $3,900, and the Dollar Index has slipped to 101.54.
I have said this many times: When bonds are going down and crude oil is going up, it's generally not a good combination for the ES and NQ. Today is different because bonds are rallying alongside crude oil while the equity markets continue to fall.
That tells me the market is dealing with more than just inflation concerns. Investors are also worried about economic growth, geopolitical risks and the enormous amounts of money being invested in artificial intelligence.
The other important factor is the calendar. Today is the final trading session of October, and month-end portfolio adjustments, institutional rebalancing and closing imbalances could add to volatility into the 4:00 PM ET cash close.
Historically, when the last trading day of October falls on a Friday, the S&P 500 has finished higher in six of the ten qualifying sessions from 2003 through 2025. However, the average return was slightly negative, suggesting that the seasonal tendency offers little protection against aggressive selling.
Our Lean
The ES and NQ remain vulnerable as long as technology stocks continue to lead the downside. The sharp divergence between crude oil and equities, combined with the rally in Treasury bonds and weakness in the dollar, suggests that investors are becoming increasingly defensive.
The big question is whether buyers can stabilize the ES and NQ after the sharp declines or whether month-end selling, portfolio rebalancing and closing imbalances accelerate the move into the 4:00 PM ET cash close.
@MrTopStep Futures Education and News
Happy FRYday : Need I say more?
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