Interested in mutinies, coups, military jackassery and political buffoonery
Joined September 2021
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Thread with summary of paper here: xitter.cf/MutinyMonitor/status/1…
Across all three cases, plots and rumors were the most likely candidates to be omitted based on source material. Ultimately, this suggests that for studies interested in coup conspiracies, engagement with a wider range of sources is critical for accuracy. 5/5
They explore this intuition with an in-depth study of coup cases in Syria, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia between 1949-1968. The cases vary based on their coup propensity according to existing datasets - during the heyday of coup activity in the Middle East. 4/
A key theoretical intuition here is that as a case's level of success and overt action degrees, so does its likelihood of being captured by Western media outlets and relevant datasets. Thus, successful coups are least susceptible to omission whereas plots and rumors are most 3/
The authors set out to explore whether modern datasets systematically omit coup cases based on the sources they consult. They point to a tendency to rely on Western-based sources, particularly among global datasets 2/
ICYMI, be sure to check out this latest piece on the presence of reporting bias in coup data. Thread below as well 🧵 1/
🚨 New paper alert 🚨
How does sourcing influence the collection of coup data? How do current datasets fare in the reporting of coup cases? Twitterless Salah Ben Hammou, @prof_powell, and @Bailey_Sellers8 explore these questions over at @IntlStudiesRev academic.oup.com/isr/article…
Mutiny Monitor retweeted
🚨 New paper alert 🚨
How does sourcing influence the collection of coup data? How do current datasets fare in the reporting of coup cases? Twitterless Salah Ben Hammou, @prof_powell, and @Bailey_Sellers8 explore these questions over at @IntlStudiesRev academic.oup.com/isr/article…
Mutiny Monitor retweeted
"Sourcing and Bias in the Study of #Coups: Lessons from the #MiddleEast" Unveiling critical insights into the #datacollection process behind coup datasets. Learn about the reliance on #internationalnews sources and the need for regional expertise. shorturl.at/sELU3
🚨 New paper alert 🚨
How does sourcing influence the collection of coup data? How do current datasets fare in the reporting of coup cases? Twitterless Salah Ben Hammou, @prof_powell, and @Bailey_Sellers8 explore these questions over at @IntlStudiesRev academic.oup.com/isr/article…
Mutiny Monitor retweeted
Guest contributor @austinsmatthews (@EastCarolina) discusses the #Sudan crisis, where a failed #coup resulted in a power struggle between the head of the military junta and the head of the Rapid Support Forces, and a deadly #civilwar. politicalviolenceataglance.o…
Mutiny Monitor retweeted
I'm proud of this one: I examine the incentives of military officers at the onset of civil war to remain loyal, side with the rebels, or resign (thread)
Rebel, Remain, or Resign? Military Elites’ Decision-Making at the Onset of the American Civil War journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.…
Mutiny Monitor retweeted
ICYMI, don't miss @SlaterPolitics on military supremacy in dictatorships. Slater, @Lucanway, @adam_e_casey and @jeanlach find the autonomy needed for armed forces to achieve and maintain supremacy depends on their own origins-- whether they emerged independently from the authoritarian parties.
“THE ORIGINS OF MILITARY SUPREMACY IN DICTATORSHIPS”
“The core lesson is simple: Unless an autocratic regime created the military, it will struggle to control the military.”
New @JoDemocracy article with @LucanWay, @adam_e_casey and Jean Lachapelle!
muse.jhu.edu/article/900429
Mutiny Monitor retweeted
My friends, it is finally happening. After 10 years in the making, my book is coming out with @OxUniPress on July 25!
"Soldiers of Democracy? Military Legacies and the Arab Spring"
Summary and reviews here: global.oup.com/academic/prod…
Discount code below to pre-order with 30% off!
🚨 New paper alert 🚨
What are the different electoral outcomes following military coups? What explains these different outcomes? @elischerafrica and Justin Hoyle explore these questions over at Contemporary Politics
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Mutiny Monitor retweeted
Salah Ben Hammou, a SPSIA doctoral student, has been awarded a 2023-24 Peace Scholar Fellowship Award for his dissertation: The Varieties of Civilian Praetorianism & The Politics of Post-Coup Trajectories. Congratulations Salah!
Mutiny Monitor retweeted
In my first article @AJEnglish I analyzed how the #SAF and #RSF stack up against each other, and explain how their tactical specializations set them up for a stalemate in the #SudanCrisis 🇸🇩 now.
Expert-interviews w/@_hudsonc @prof_powell @plichta_marcel aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/18…
Mutiny Monitor retweeted
Interested in civil service reform? popular uprisings? ethnography? Or want a real-time glimpse into how Sudan’s transition was unfurling before it was derailed? Check out this new paper, joint with @Kodouda in @WorldDevJournal 1/
sciencedirect.com/science/ar…
Be sure to check out @austinsmatthews' latest on leader capture during coups d'etat!
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Mutiny Monitor retweeted
Al-Burhan and Dagalo are at a stalemate in Sudan 🇸🇩. But I mentioned in this thread that this situation gives the #FFC and civilian democratizers *unprecedented* leverage. I’d like to explain this a bit more in a quick thread🧵#SudanCrisis #Sudancoup #KeepYourEyesOnSudan
I've been asked about the origins of the origins of power struggle between Dagalo and Al-Burhan in Sudan🇸🇩 and its implications a few times in the last days. A quick 🧵 with some thoughts on the bigger picture of the #SudanCrisis, legacies of the #Sudancoup, and an outlook