We fact-check NFL hot takes with data. QB rankings every Tuesday. The numbers do not care about your team. Free newsletter: https://nitter.gq/t.co/jth5iyelLt
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THE NUMBERS DO NOT CARE ABOUT YOUR TEAM
Caleb Williams threw 4 interceptions against the toughest defense in the NFL.
Adjusted for that defense, his game still graded above average.
He's no longer No. 1. Joe Burrow is.
Burrow is the only S-tier QB in football. S tier means a grade of 35 or higher, the elite level in our rankings, where 0 is league average.
Top 10 through Week 9:
WHO OWNS THE TRENCHES? EVERY NFL DEFENSIVE LINE, RANKED
The Eagles have the weakest 4-man pass rush in football. Pressure on just 6.9% of plain 4-man rushes.
Seattle is No. 1, top 3 at both rushing the passer and stopping the run.
Cowboys 29th. Panthers dead last.
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Every ranking we make (QBs, O-lines, D-lines and more) lands in the free newsletter first: datadisrespect.substack.com
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THE MOST BANGED-UP TEAMS IN THE NFL, RANKED
The Eagles and Ravens both started their third-string QB last week.
Philly has 7 key players injured, including Jalen Hurts (out for the season) and his backup.
Meanwhile, 5 teams didn't miss a single key player: the Bengals, Falcons, Raiders, Dolphins and Saints.
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Full QB rankings, O-line rankings and every chart we make land in the free newsletter first: datadisrespect.substack.com
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EVERY NFL OFFENSIVE LINE, RANKED 1 TO 32
The 1-7 Titans protect their QB better than anyone in football. 6 sacks allowed all year. Whatever's wrong in Tennessee, it isn't the line.
The Eagles? 26.6% of their runs get stuffed at or behind the line. Most in the NFL. The most famous line in football is now dead last in run blocking.
Top 5: 49ers, Falcons, Titans, Broncos, Bills
Bottom 5: Commanders, Eagles, Giants, Chargers, Browns
The Browns have allowed 31 sacks. Only 3 were the QB's fault. Shedeur deserves better.
Pass protection 55%, run blocking 35%, line penalties 10%. Opponent-adjusted, garbage time removed.
Full breakdown of all 32 lines in the newsletter 👇
Full breakdown of all 32 lines, plus why the offensive line matters more than you think:
datadisrespect.substack.com/…
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Full rankings for all 34 QBs, plus how the grades work, free in your inbox: datadisrespect.substack.com
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Mr. Irrelevant vs. his scouting report 📋
The NFL's 2022 draft profile on Brock Purdy:
"throwing is more of a chore than a talent"
"Certain areas of the field will be off limits"
"not dynamic enough" as a runner
Pick #262. Last pick of the draft.
His rank among 33 QBs with 1,000+ dropbacks since 2022:
• EPA per dropback: #1
• Yards per attempt: #1
• Efficiency outside the numbers: #1
• Efficiency on 20+ yd throws: #2
• Completion % over expected: #5
• Less reliant on yards after catch than 25 of the 33
For context on EPA per dropback: Purdy +0.228, Josh Allen +0.206, Patrick Mahomes +0.182.
Where the scouts were right:
• Scramble efficiency: #16, dead average
• INT rate: #28, his real weak spot
Record as a starter: 42-19 (37-16 regular season, 5-3 playoffs)
"System QB" doesn't survive the data.
#NFL #49ers #FTTB
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THE NUMBERS DO NOT CARE ABOUT YOUR TEAM
Monday night: the Bills' 4th-ranked offense meets the Vikings' defense, the most aggressive in football.
The Vikings blitz on 73% of dropbacks. League average is 32%.
Kyler Murray is out. Vegas has the Bills by 3.5.
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THE NUMBERS DO NOT CARE ABOUT YOUR TEAM
The Los Angeles Chargers are 0-8.
They're also 0-7-1 against the spread.
8 games. Zero covers. They missed the number by 9.6 points a game.
Vegas keeps lowering the bar. The Chargers keep going under it.
Bears-Bucs tonight, by the numbers:
Caleb Williams: No. 1 QB in our grades after the hardest schedule in the league.
Tampa Bay: No. 1 defense in our ratings.
The big bettors are on the Bucs: 76% of the money, 22% of the bets.
Vegas and our model both say Bears by 6.
Somebody's wrong.
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Every week someone fades an #NFL team for the short week, the cross-country flight, or backs one off a bye.
I measured all of it. 3,606 NFL games, 2012–2025, against the closing line.
Pooled effect: −0.05 points. 95% range ±0.74.
All of it is worth nothing. And two of them run backwards.
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The Jacksonville Jaguars' defense has a turnover problem.
4th in the NFL with turnovers. 14th without them.
No defense in the league leans on takeaways more. Tonight they face Joe Fagnano in his first career start, so they may get a few more.
Biggest moves with turnovers taken out:
Philadelphia Eagles: 24th to 15th
Los Angeles Chargers: 11th to 19th
Cincinnati Bengals: 17th to 25th
Are takeaways skill or luck?
#NFL #DUUUVAL
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How it works: every interception and lost fumble counts as a neutral play, and each defense is adjusted for the offenses it faced. Full ratings at datadisrespect.com
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Josh Allen won by 26 and graded like a disaster. Mahomes lost and graded +31.
Week 8 quarterbacks the scoreboard lied about:
Allen won 36-10: -18.5
Stafford won 24-9: -22.2
Rodgers won 27-6: -10.0
Mahomes lost 28-24 at Denver: +31.0 (321 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, against a top-10 defense)
Every dropback graded for expected points, completion rate over expected and staying on schedule, then adjusted for the defense faced. Zero is average.
One caveat: Allen ran 7 times for 30 yards, and the grade counts dropbacks only.
Full rankings: datadisrespect.com
#NFL #Bills #Rams #Steelers #Chiefs #Broncos #Ravens #Chargers #Browns
