I’ll add this to the free section to explain what I call “two-tails.” What makes El Niños unique is that precipitation becomes more predictable (clustered), while temps tend to rise in specific regions and timeframes. This is why so many traders are piling into the El Niño trade: it’s predictable, which means a higher probability of directional price outcomes. nicoaiq.substack.com/p/el-ni…

Live video of me reviewing @usda_nass and WASDE decisions one by one. “OMG there more yield issues in each state” On a serious note, don’t mess with this man’s 🐝 🐝

FERPs masquerade as experts in the age of AI, but accidentally make posts that show they don't know the slightest about how the business works. Do people think that if the Bulgarian Lev or Russian Ruble devals that wheat prices magically fall by that much everywhere?

One of the favorite past times for Brazilians and Argentines is to plan their holidays in whichever country offer better bang for the buck. BRL to ARS is in the 90th percentile discount

Friendly reminder that @USDA picks and chooses when to adopt its own agency's figures w/no public explanation. Let's see what they do with this change in November. Domestic demand for meal is growing, but not corn? What do animals eat? A broken process.

Tuesday, October 27, 2026: Let’s Put a Little Context Around What We Witnessed in Brazil Today. Cash Grain Basis Is Acting As We’d Expect. CFTC to Start Semi-Weekly Reporting — It’s a Nothingburger.

tomorrow morning I'll send out the first look at how South Africa's growing season started.

Today's move in the BRL makes top 10 all-time in the last 30+ years in weekly moves. The largest single day devaluation since 2003. A testament to how crowded these trades become in the current era.

This is what the Civil War map looked like.

Old enough to remember when Truflation was nothing more than thinly veiled propaganda… oh yeah, still trash lol. Seems like little more than a lagging glorified energy and logistics beta, with some downward biases.

🇺🇸 Costs of ag production were moving in the wrong direction, and got less competitive after today. 🇧🇷 Growing season starts out much more favorable after this move.

someone's blowing out of sugar

Now's probably a great time to review what I wrote back in July on Brazil and stocks to watch. nicoaiq.substack.com/p/the-l…

Great read, straightforward, digestible for everyone.

BRAZIL IS THE COUNTRY OF THE FUTURE AND ALWAYS WILL BE -Bunge executive circa 2009

After the first round, I shared the following charts showing how sudden shocks to the Brazilian currency filtered through in a single session (or two) depending on when. Look for some extra weakness if Lula is confirmed as the winner.

Hard to take these guys serious when they self-report errors and claim it had no impact after driving realized report volatility sky-high.