Macro. Compte personnel

Paris, France
Joined December 2013
France's nominal private demand (PDFP) has grown more slowly than the 10 Y OAT yield for nine straight quarters, and it ran below the ECB deposit rate from Q1 2024.
France is the Biggest Loser in the Global Rates Reset theovershoot.co/p/france-is-… In much of the rich world, the uptick in the cost of capital corresponds to a relatively benign change in (nominal) growth trajectories. This is less true for Europe, and especially for France.
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Nicolas Goetzmann retweeted
New York Fed president John C. Williams spoke with CNBC this morning. Watch his interview: nyfed.org/4ylsJmG
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Back to the Trichet era. Great.
This is really cool. Someone has created ECBLock! james-j-liu.github.io/ecbloc…
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Nicolas Goetzmann retweeted
With Warsh declining to talk his about reaction function, John Williams really takes on the role of Fed leadership and speaking for the center of the FOMC.
NY Fed President John Williams says he "strongly" supported last week's policy decision and reaffirms the reaction function he sketched out last month. He expects inflation to decline but says "it would absolutely be appropriate" to raise rates if inflation doesn't. "I am quite honestly focused quite a bit on, what are we seeing in the core inflation ​data over the next several months, and is that consistent with a kind of a run rate of inflation moving towards 2% and really on a disinflationary path consistent ​with us achieving our 2% inflation goal on a sustained basis by 2028." "My forecast personally is for inflation to come down in ⁠the second half of this year and come down further next year." "If ​the economy is not on a trajectory that will bring inflation back down to 2% ... it would absolutely be appropriate to act to get us on a trajectory that does bring inflation back ​to 2%.” via Reuters @michaelsderby reuters.com/business/feds-wi…
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Isabel Schnabel "Given the size and the persistence of the current shock, looking through is no longer an option in my view."
Incoming data increasingly suggest that the energy price shock is feeding into broader inflation developments, Executive Board member @Isabel_Schnabel tells @Reuters. Given the size and persistence of the shock, looking through is no longer an option. ecb.europa.eu/press/inter/da…
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Germany — 7-year stagnation in core private domestic demand (real private domestic final purchases). Q4’18 → Q4’25: +0.08%.
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« Chinese imports to the euro zone are up by 27% in volume terms since the start of 2024, with prices down by 8%, Panetta said, adding that this was driving down the price of goods exposed to Chinese competition » reuters.com/world/china/ecbs…
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Nicolas Goetzmann retweeted
France and Germany are carving up the ECB: @LionelRALaurent & @marcusashworth bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… via @opinion
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While NGDP is above 8%, nominal PDFP is 6.2%—strong, but not exceptional, i.e. below Q2 2019, right when the Fed pivoted to cuts.
"The Federal Reserve has cut rates only a handful of times when nominal growth was greater than 8 per cent and most of those instances were in the 1970s." Richard Bernstein @RBAdvisors in the FT ft.com/content/94112b05-ac15…
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The Global Trade Effects of the AI Infrastructure Boom "The U.S. leads globally in terms of the AI infrastructure build-out and planned investments, followed by China, with other economies, notably Europe, lagging" federalreserve.gov/econres/n…
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Weak private demand is the core problem—tied to weak productivity (Draghi). Strip out the noise (Ireland’s MNE distortions, NGEU one-offs) and focus on the core euro area (FR+DE): the ECB tightening cycle is hard to miss. Core private domestic demand is the adjustment margin.
Replying to @Isabel_Schnabel
The key shortfall is a sustained weakness in domestic demand. Since 1999 real private consumption in Germany has grown by less than 1% per year. Domestic investment remained subdued as well. This is mirrored in the sharp rise in Germany’s current account surplus. 15/20
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L'inflation en France continue de s'effondrer... divisée par 2 en 3 mois ! HICP est passé de +0,8% YoY en novembre à +0,4% YoY en janvier (1ère estimation)
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Nicolas Goetzmann retweeted
The day wouldn't be complete without another profound & insightful Kevin Warsh commentary. All kidding aside, Warsh's life is going to be very complicated and not just because of Trump.👇👇👇 omfif.org/2026/02/no-easy-an…
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Nicolas Goetzmann retweeted
New episode! Scott Sumner on Monetary Policy Confusion in Our Current Policy Debates Scott lays out for @DavidBeckworth why people have been reversing the cause and effect of the eurozone crisis.
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