Nobody. (@NobodyFund) header
Nobody. (@NobodyFund) profile picture

DEX & CEX Market Maker

Geneva
Joined October 2024
🚨 TODAY: Pumpfun deposits another 129,798 solana:So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112 worth $14.07M to Kraken, bringing its total solana:So11111111111111111111111111111111111111112 sold to 5.48M, or about $875.5M, per Arkham data.
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Not talking out of jealousy or any of that but Kimchi joining @Pumpfun and dropping the link in his YouTube vlog is the clearest signal yet that the platform has finished its transformation from a trench tool into a celebrity extraction machine. The guy’s entire public identity rests on an unverified $40M (sometimes $50M) claim from the official TRUMP launch in January 2025. No wallet has ever been publicly verified with entry, size, and exit that matches the number. The story spread because Orangie interviewed him days before the launch, he said he’d stop at eight figures, then TRUMP printed and he went quiet while posting lifestyle. That’s the folklore. Multiple write-ups and on-chain digs have pointed out the absence of concrete proof. People still treat the number as settled fact and are now lining up to send him money through a coin. He put the @Pumpfun profile in the description of the “october 2026” vlog. Alon publicly framed him as the first trader to cross into actual pop-culture celebrity status and the model for the next wave of retail. The associated Kimchi / Aura Final Boss coin immediately ran to tens of millions in market cap. Holders and randoms are shipping supply and volume to a profile that just appeared, on the strength of a legend that still has no public on-chain receipt. He already has the lifestyle, the cars, the meals, and the quiet exit. He does not need the bags. The trenches are feeding him anyway. This is what @Pumpfun has optimized for. Low friction plus creator rewards plus social trading means the highest-ROI activity is no longer finding a coin early or building something that holds attention for more than a day. It is attaching a known name, a vlog, or a verified profile and letting the platform’s distribution and the culture’s reflex do the rest. Celebrity launches and “onboarded” KOLs now print faster and cleaner than most organic trench plays. The platform takes the fees either way. The identity of the trenches—scanning, sizing risk, catching the meta before the narrative is fully packaged—gets replaced by “who did Alon just post and whose YouTube description has the link.” None of this requires believing Kimchi is lying about everything. It requires noticing that the verification bar for extracting from the platform has collapsed to “people say he made a lot once and he posted the link.” When a platform’s growth strategy is signing the unverified legends and letting the community fund the next chapter, the original skill set and culture get crowded out. The coins still move, the volume still prints, and the trenches keep getting told this is the future of onboarding. The difference is that the future now looks a lot more like paid lifestyle content with a contract address than anything that used to define the game. This is another reason I left the trenches. @Pumpfun turned the whole thing into a machine that rewards the celebrity package over the actual game, and once that became the dominant meta there wasn’t much left worth staying for.
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Black swan 🦢 or black Monday doesn’t happen when every amateur is talking about it non stop online. Black swan happens when you’re sleeping and wake up to market down 20%. It happened to me in 2015 when I was sleeping in Roanoke Virginia. I was short EURCHF at 1.2 and woke up next day to 0.85 $eurchf after Swiss SNB abandoned the peg .
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And somehow you can feel all four at once
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What does a repeat of '08 look like? I have seen a lot of doomsday like takes around here last few days, so I thought I'd review 2008-scale drawdown requirements, grounded in numbers. > S&P 500 fell ~57% peak-to-trough in 2008. Reaching anything close from current levels needs simultaneous pressure on both the concentrated mega-caps and the already-weak remainder of the index, plus earnings deterioration. > Mag7 / top 10 must fall hard. They are ~35% of the index. A 25% decline in these names produces only a ~10% index drag. A 40%+ decline is required to generate the bulk of a crisis-level move. Several already trade at mid-to-high teens to low-20s forward P/E (let's put NVDA aside for cyclical concerns, we still have META ~21–22x, AMZN ~24–28x); a further 40% price drop would push many into the low-to-mid teens for the best companies in the world. > The rest of the index still needs another large leg lower. Equal-weight forward P/E is already ~16x (near or below recent averages). 84% of S&P 500 stocks are ≥10% off highs, 59% ≥20% off, and 41% ≥30% off. Another major (30%+) decline in the average stock is required on top of that. Pure multiple compression from ~16x offers only limited room (~10–15% to reach long-run norms); most of any additional drop would have to come from earnings estimate cuts (will get to that next). > Earnings must be revised down substantially. Consensus growth expectations remain elevated. This is the real systemic risk, I think. A 25% reduction in forward earnings estimates across the index (recession, margin pressure, AI capex ROI disappointment) would drive much of the required price decline even without extreme multiple compression. This is the thing to watch. HOWEVER, the major AI players are tending to see earnings ACCELERATION (see $ASML's report from Weds). > A systemic catalyst is probably necessary. 2008 was driven by credit collapse, forced deleveraging, and recession. Comparable drivers today would include datacenter financing stress, private credit issues tied to AI infrastructure / capex, a sharp slowdown in hyperscaler spending, runaway higher rates, or a broader economic contraction that hits consumer and enterprise demand. These things are all possible and straining, hence smart folks shouting for a crash - but valuation and breadth alone are not enough. And it will take something much larger than CoreWeave having a bunch of debt that matures in 2031.
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Trump trying to pump crypto, stocks, and metals all at the same time:
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true 😂
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2 years later… No airdrop or even talk of it. No reason reason to buy their token. No streams even worth watching. No progress on overtaking IG, TikTok, and Twitch Am I wrong?
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Recent BTC move gives more Oct '23 vibes than Jan '23: Jan '23 marked the end of the bear market. After hovering around 16k for 2 months, BTC rallied and reclaimed 20k for the first time since the FTX blow-up. The rally was mainly a short squeeze; there was no real catalyst or fundamental change. BTC would chop between 20k and 30k until Q4. Then, in Oct '23, we had the infamous CoinTelegraph fake ETF approval. Despite - or because of - the news being fake, it led to BTC starting its bull run due to one simple fact; everyone realized they were underallocated to a BTC spot ETF approval. We were reminded that it was the reaction to the news that mattered, not the news itself. What we saw last week led to an immediate reaction in the two go-to assets for the debasement trade: gold and BTC. Both rallied on the news, with BTC's move amplified by several significant short squeezes. The move is reminiscent of the fake BTC ETF approval; it showed everyone that they are underallocated to the debasement trade. The main difference is speed: that the debasement narrative evolves much slower than the BTC ETF approval. The US isn't going bankrupt anytime soon, whereas the BTC ETF approval was a mere 3 months later in Jan '24. But I believe the psychology underlying the price action is the same.
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moon carl made a literal billion dollars shilling his bybit reflink to plumbers but you are so much more honorable impaling each other in the trenches over a soup and sandwich worth of sol in the sunsetting of the crypto industry while the sun rises on the 4th industrial revolution there is no honor to working hard at the wrong table than choosing the right table at the right time (arguably higher level skill anyway)
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My plan for $HYPE in long-term You can call me crazy if you want but remember I was shorted it at $74 and making 40% A project having a good product doesn't mean its price will be good too. I've been investing in crypto for over 7 years and have seen many projects with good products that still strong dropped
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OTC crypto trading hit $478B in volume in 2024 Growing 24.8% year over year. P2P OTC specifically up 313% in a single year. And yet every single platform handling this volume is centralised. Custodial. Gated behind KYC and minimum deal sizes. The decentralised layer for OTC doesn't exist yet. Until now. somebody.deal
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You want to swap LARGE AMOUNT of tokens The OTC desk asks for your passport. Proof of address. Source of funds. 3 business days to verify. Somebody asks for one thing. Your wallet. That's it. Connect, create a deal, swap. Fully on-chain, fully private. somebody.deal
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New day new favourite ☕️ @ZachXBT’s investigation teaser sparked a frenzy: total Polymarket volume is now $30M. Flow: Day 1: most bets on Pumpfun Later: volume moved to Meteora Today: anonymous “insiders” started placing big bets on Axiom, now leading at 34% We’ll find out which project it is later today.
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Gm if you gm, wish you stay profitable despite all nukes
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Hyperliquid dropped out of the top 5 protocols by revenue over the last 24 hours. This looks like a short term shift caused by high activity on the @BagsApp memepad. Overall, @HyperliquidX is still the most profitable perp DEX on the market. Despite many attempts from competitors like @edgeX_exchange , @OfficialApeXdex, @Aster_DEX , and @Lighter_xyz , no one has been able to beat Hyperliquid in the long run so far.
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Replying to @bonkfun
Bonk.fun removed fees first, trying to stay ahead of @Pumpfun. another lesson come to the public with a solution not an idea
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