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Oil Stock Trader

@OilStockTrader

SHORT TERM technical trader focused exclusively on the Energy Sector. Trading Timeframe: 3-10 day swing plays. University of Alabama Law '93 - #RollTide

tradingenergystocks.substack.com/
Joined December 2014
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Photo by Oil Stock Trader (@OilStockTrader)Photo by Oil Stock Trader (@OilStockTrader)Photo by Oil Stock Trader (@OilStockTrader)Photo by Oil Stock Trader (@OilStockTrader)Photo by Oil Stock Trader (@OilStockTrader)Photo by Oil Stock Trader (@OilStockTrader)Photo by Oil Stock Trader (@OilStockTrader)Photo by Oil Stock Trader (@OilStockTrader)Photo by Oil Stock Trader (@OilStockTrader)Photo by Oil Stock Trader (@OilStockTrader)
Back From Vacation - What Have You Guys Done?? Review and Outlook: Where Does the Market Go From Here? tradingenergystocks.substack…
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Congrats Aidan on ringing the closing bell today! @Thatmathguy47
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Powell vs. Warsh. Commodities tell you a lot about rates. Powell started raising rates around $DJP ~38. Warsh started raising around $DJP ~52, or about 40% higher. Should Powell have done more? Do commodities respond to this hiking cycle like they did to the 2022 cycle?
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Weekend Review: Intermarket Macro Picture, Sector Review, Random Observations and Some Trading Ideas for the Week. tradingenergystocks.substack…
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Weekend Review: Intermarket and Sector Review, This Week's Trade Setups and Some Random Market Obversations. tradingenergystocks.substack…
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If you are buying into this $SMH rip, be damn sure you aren't being used as exit liquidity. The 600 test should be coming soon. Three outcomes: 1) breakout and run higher, 2) 600 consolidation for a few days then a break higher, or C) stop hunt/upthrust at 600 and total failure.
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$SMH got the 600 test, but it's looking like path #1 is probably out. That leaves either 2) consolidation (probably healthy) in this 580-610 area for a few days or 3) this 600 test fails and heads back down toward that lower range boundary ~540. Bulls need to hold 578-580 close.
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Looking to start in on the initial $XOP short position in the first hour today. $CL pushing 87.50, up +3.65%, will be patient to see how much momentum there is in it before entering $XOP. Would love to see a spike up to 190, but intermarket macro very weak today.
Oil Stock Trader (@OilStockTrader) profile pictureOil Stock Trader@OilStockTraderAug 19
Energy Short Trade Setup in $XLE $XOP. tradingenergystocks.substack…
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Initial short entry for 25% position made at 190. Next add decision point is in the 195-200 area.
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Covered the $XOP 190 short position breakeven. Was a little early on this one. Probably should have continued the build at 200. I'm out of energy for the time being. Will be looking to put the short play back on if/when geopolitical flares up again for a move closer to 200+.
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Weekend Review: Time to Exit the Market? tradingenergystocks.substack…
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Offense wins games, defense wins championships. A. $XLF is breaking down on higher rates, that's a warning. B. $GDX heading toward the 86-90 buy zone, be patient. C. $IYT, especially trucking breaking down, that doesn't mesh with a "strengthening economy". $XRT $ITB same issue.
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Weekend Review: Bessent vs. Warsh, Gold Topping, Bonds Failing, 65 Billion Barrels of Venezuelan Oil and Some Stock Picks and Watches for the Week. tradingenergystocks.substack…
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Daughter was walking home from the gym and ran into this guy! @EinsteinoWallSt Recognized him from a speech he gave at her college. She said he was super nice and very friendly. Thanks for the pic Mr Tuchman!
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Let's see if this is strike two. This is how the downward spiral starts. If this pump fails like last week's, the bears gain more and more strength. Bessent is on the wrong track thinking he's bigger than the market, he's adding to a losing trade with these desperation moves.
*Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) profile picture*Walter Bloomberg
@DeItaoneAug 24
BESSENT COULD TAP NEAR $1 TRILLION TREASURY GENERAL ACCOUNT TO FUND BOND BUYBACKS, SOURCES SAID
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Watch this Canada situation. If Trump oversteps, Canada could take the nuclear option and close the oil taps flowing into the US, which could cause a massive price spike. It wouldn't take much of a supply decline to cause that either. And then were does the US get its heavy?
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Weekend Review: Bessent's Battle, Stalling Semis, Fading Retail and a Dangerous Wyckoff Upthrust. tradingenergystocks.substack…
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Caution here $GDX 103 after this +$30 run. Bessent's attempt at manipulating the bond market could backfire. Commodities are screaming an inflation response. That's going to cause FED problems. If inflation causes a rate hike shift, $GDX could top and reverse back down violently.
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Energy Short Trade Setup in $XLE $XOP. tradingenergystocks.substack…
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No way that bond news from Bessent is a positive for this market. It's an admission that there's a big problem. It does explain the recent $TLT up, $DXY down, $GC moves though. This bond buying has likely been happening for awhile. Close is everything today, does this move hold?
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Looks like the market is willing to sell Bessent all the bonds he can eat. Publicly acknowledging a serious problem in the bond market yesterday might not have been his best decision. How long does he try to fight the market? $SMH was the tell Wed, fast money pulling back.
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