Verified NFL officiating data from the fan side. Every crew, team and game checked against two sources. Open methods. Every correction public.
Dallas, TX
Joined November 2024
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Week 8: all 17 crews are in the normal range. None above the league standard, none below it.
What changed: Novak's crew (+30%, likely range -2% to +65%) and Wrolstad's (+21%, -2% to +45%) were Above standard after week 7. Both ranges now include zero.
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Tonight's BUF at MIN crew, led by Carl Cheffers, has thrown 14.9 flags a game in 7 games this season. The same teams drew 17.8 a game from other crews.
Fewer so far, but 7 games is a small sample: likely range 35% below to 3% above standard. Typical.
#BUFvsMIN #BillsMafia #Skol
Our forecast, logged Nov 3 before kickoff: 14 accepted flags, both teams, 80% range 9 to 20. Declined and offsetting flags excluded. Not betting advice.
97% of our 30 graded forecasts landed inside their range, so ranges may run wide. Graded tomorrow. #BUFvsMIN #BillsMafia #Skol
Sunday night, TB at CHI: 17 accepted flags (CHI 9, TB 8), checked against ESPN.
Our forecast, posted Saturday before kickoff: 14, 80% range 9 to 19. Inside.
Final: Bears 27, Buccaneers 24. #TBvsCHI #WeAreTheKrewe #DaBears
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Week 9 forecasts, logged before kickoff. Expected accepted flags, 80% range.
Every game sits at about 13 to 16, and nine of 14 round to 14. The ranges overlap, so no real gap.
Most of the swing is chance. Not betting advice. We don't bet, and we take no betting money.
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Tonight's JAX at BAL crew (referee Brad Allen) has worked 7 games in 2026. Its flag rate is typical: 1.07 times the expected rate for the teams it had (likely range 0.85 to 1.30).
His crews ran lower in 2025 (0.85, 15 games) and 2024 (0.87, 16).
#JAXvsBAL #DUUUVAL #RavensFlock
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Our forecast, logged Nov 3 before kickoff: 14 accepted flags, 80% range 9 to 20. Most of the swing is chance. Not betting advice.
28 of our 29 graded forecasts landed inside their range. More than 80%, so our ranges may run wide. Graded tomorrow. #JAXvsBAL #DUUUVAL #RavensFlock
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Sunday night, PHI at WAS: 15 accepted flags (WAS 9, PHI 6), checked against ESPN.
Our forecast, logged Saturday before kickoff: 15, 80% range 9 to 20. Inside.
Final: Commanders 27, Eagles 10. #PHIvsWAS #FlyEaglesFly #RaiseHail
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Week 8 forecasts, logged before kickoff. Expected accepted flags, 80% range.
Fewest: LAC at LA and ATL at TB, 13 (8-19)
NE at MIA and PHI at WAS are held while we recheck a data input.
Most of the swing is chance. Not betting advice. We don't bet, and we take no betting money.
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Week 7 crew report. 2 of 17 NFL crews are above the league standard. The other 15 are in the normal range.
Scott Novak's crew: +41% (likely range +10% to +70%)
Craig Wrolstad's crew: +26% (+1% to +50%), new this week
% = flags a game vs what the same teams drew from other crews
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Tonight's crew for DAL at PHI has worked 5 games this season. Its flag rate is typical for the teams it has had: 0.93 times the expected rate (range 0.66 to 1.19).
Crew per Football Zebras; ESPN can't confirm until it's played. #DALvsPHI #DallasCowboys #FlyEaglesFly
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Tonight's assigned crew for KC at SEA has worked 5 games this season. Its flag rate is typical for the teams it has had.
Our forecast, logged Oct 20: 14 accepted flags, 80% range 9 to 20. Most of the swing is chance. Not betting advice.
Live counts in this thread. #KCvsSEA
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End of Q1, Chiefs at Seahawks, 0-0: just 1 flag so far, on the Chiefs for 5 yards. None on Seattle.
This crew has thrown 18.2 flags a game this season (5 games).
Live count is unofficial (ESPN feed). Checked total tomorrow.
#KCvsSEA
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Bengals-Ravens flags: Ravens 10 for 57 yards, Bengals 1 for 15. 6 of Baltimore's 10 were false starts or a delay of game.
See a Bengals hold that drew no flag? Reply with quarter and clock. We'll check the tape.
Unofficial count from ESPN. Checked numbers this week.
#CINvsBAL
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Week 7 forecasts, logged before kickoff. Expected accepted flags per game, 80% range.
Most: CLE at TEN 16 (11-22), GB at DET 16 (10-22)
Fewest: SF at ATL 13 (8-19), LA at LV 13 (8-19)
Most of the swing is chance. Not betting advice. We don't bet, and we take no betting money.
We post the forecast before kickoff and grade it the next day, hit or miss. Thursday: inside the range.
Checked: 19 accepted flags (Patriots 10 for 71 yds, Bears 9 for 69), 21 thrown. Our live count matched exactly.
Forecast before kickoff: 14, with an 80% range of 9 to 19. Result: 19, inside the range at the top end.
Source: nflverse, checked against ESPN. Not betting advice.
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Tonight, NE at CHI (7:15 PM CT, Prime Video): Alan Eck's crew.
They've thrown 16.4 flags per game in 2026 (5 games) and 13.8 over 2024-26 (37 games). Source: nflverse play-by-play, checked against ESPN.
Live flag counts at each quarter break below. Checked total tomorrow.
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End of Q1, WAS-SF: 3 flags (SF 2 for 20 yds, WAS 1 for 10).
This crew has averaged 18.5 flags a game, checked against ESPN and Football Zebras, 2024-26.
Live count is unofficial (via ESPN's live feed). We'll post the checked total after the game.
This account is now Open Officiating.
An independent, fan-side record of NFL officiating: how often each crew throws flags vs. what the same teams draw from other crews, checked against ESPN and Football Zebras before it's published.
Every correction public. Site coming soon.
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The NFL and its refs are at war. The NFLPA says replacement refs are a player safety risk. They're both right. But they're arguing over the wrong solution. 🧵
I'll believe in a better refereeing system when I see it.
If they pull off the things they are proposing, it COULD play a part in making it better, but I still believe that AI is the future of NFL Officiating.
NFL is looking for more access to officials year round for training and development. Right now, the NFL cannot speak to the officials from the day after the Super Bowl until May 15. So accessibility, flexibility, accountability are the league’s priorities and it has explained that to the union.
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