I heard this is where all the cool kids hangout! ex JPM, BlackRock, and Macro L/S HF trader. #NFA
Joined October 2023
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- Stanley Druckenmiller -
"I'm constantly fighting my bearishness about the world. One of the great hedge fund managers of all rime, Bob Wilson, greatest short seller ever, said he made 90% of his money on the long side, the math just works against you. If you're perfect on a short, you can double your money. But if you're wrong on a short, you can lose 10 times your money. If you're dead wrong on a long, you lose your money. But if you're right, you can make 10 times your money. It's a mathematical inverse of that with shorting. You don't have to be a rocket scientist. I know, therefore, that if you have a bearish bias, you have to be very aware of it. You have to work around it. And I always have."
SPEARPOINT DAILY SITREP | Thu 29 Oct 2026
The WSJ reports the US told Gulf states to prepare for a short, intense campaign against Iran after the midterms. The Fed held rates, but two officials wanted a hike. Microsoft rose and Alphabet sank on earnings. Amazon reports tonight.
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 WSJ: The US has warned several Gulf states to prepare for a possible short, intense military campaign against Iran after the midterms. US and Israeli forces are preparing options for renewed strikes.
This is the clearest signal yet of what comes after Nov 3.
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🇺🇸 Asked if he'd order a strike after the election, Trump said "anything is possible."
The day before, he said he'd "absolutely" attack Iran again given the same choice, calling the war's economic fallout "short-term pain" for "long-term gain."
4/
🕊️ QATAR DRAFT: Conflicting reports. An official briefed on the talks told Reuters Qatar gave Tehran a new draft deal Sunday, with a response expected by week's end.
A senior Iranian official told Reuters there is no new proposal and called Doha's ideas unacceptable.
5/
🇮🇷 Read: Iran is denying a proposal exists while reportedly still reviewing it.
A Friday response from Tehran is the last diplomatic checkpoint before Nov 3. Watch for it.
11/
⚓ GULF: Sharjah closed its beaches after an oil spill from a tanker threatened its coast. Kuwait summoned Iran's ambassador over what it called "blatant interference" in its internal affairs.
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🇾🇪 The Houthis called for the immediate evacuation of Aden's airport, claiming a Saudi military cargo plane was delivering weapons there. Residents reported explosions beforehand.
Aden is the seat of Yemen's Saudi-backed government.
13/
🇬🇧 The UK's budget watchdog now expects inflation to average 3.4% in 2027, up from 2%, and to peak at 3.75% early next year.
UK inflation already hit 3.5% in September. The energy shock from the Iran war is now feeding Europe's forecasts.
14/
🇮🇷 INSIDE IRAN: Schools are being told to send students to Wednesday-night pro-government rallies and to a Nov 4 march. Iran's civil defense chief calls the rallies a new form of wartime defense.
The regime is mobilizing the public ahead of possible strikes.
My quick take: The WSJ report is the most important item today. Washington is now preparing its Gulf partners for strikes, not just signaling.
Combined with Trump's "anything is possible," Nov 4–10 is now the highest-risk week of this war.
What could still change that: a real Iranian answer to Qatar by Friday, or an expanded Russian presence at Iranian nuclear sites.
For markets, expect oil volatility around Nov 3, and a hawkish Fed facing an energy-driven inflation spike if strikes happen.
SPEARPOINT DAILY SITREP | Wed 28 Oct 2026
Israel's election ended in deadlock: Likud is the largest party, but neither bloc has a majority. The Fed decides at 2pm ET, with a hold priced in. Iran reports another mine hit, and its nuclear file is now before the UN Security Council.
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🇮🇱 ISRAEL COUNT: With 84.5% of ballot boxes counted, Netanyahu's bloc has 54 seats and Eisenkot's bloc 49. Arab-led parties have 17.
61 seats are needed to govern. Neither side gets there on its own.
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🇮🇱 Likud remains the largest party with 27 seats, Eisenkot's Yashar has 22. Opposition parties plus the Arab parties total 66 seats, but forming a government that way is politically difficult.
Turnout hit 74.3% by 8pm, the highest at that hour since 1988.
4/
🇮🇱 Both leaders claimed victory. Netanyahu: "Likud is the largest party in Israel."
Democrats leader Yair Golan says Netanyahu lost and wants a government backed by the Arab parties. Axios sees stalemate as the most likely outcome.
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🇮🇱 Grading my call: I said Netanyahu was the underdog. He fell short of a majority but outperformed the pre-election polls, and Likud came first. Partial credit at best.
Special ballots, including soldiers' votes with 79.9% turnout, could still move seats.
11/
🇮🇷🇾🇪 The day after hosting Saudi Arabia's defense minister, Iran's security chief Rezaei met a Houthi envoy and praised the group's attacks.
Read: Tehran is talking to Riyadh and backing the Houthis in the same week.
12/
🇾🇪 The Houthis say they repelled an advance by Saudi-backed forces near Bab el-Mandeb with ballistic missiles and heavy weapons. Saudi Arabia hasn't confirmed.
Separately, a drone was shot down near Baghdad's Green Zone.
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🇮🇷 Iran's oil minister hit back at Bessent's advice to stockpile fuel: "While gas diplomacy is under way in Moscow, America is looking for diesel."
At the Moscow gas summit, Pezeshkian warned that attacks on Iran's energy sites would threaten the global economy.
14/
🇮🇷 Exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi says the regime is "weaker than ever" and fears a nationwide uprising. He urged security forces to side with the public.
Separately, Netanyahu has said Israel is working toward regime change. Watch for these two efforts to converge.
15/
🇧🇷 BRAZIL: Bolsonaro's court challenge to annul Lula's win is still pending; analysts see it as a long shot given the 4.4M-vote margin.
Watch whether the real and the Ibovespa stabilize after Monday's historic selloff.
My quick take: Three elections in nine days produced three different results: a shock reversal in Brazil, deadlock in Israel, and the US vote still to come. The pattern: incumbents are weakened but not knocked out.
On Iran, the Security Council referral, mine strikes and Tehran's two-track diplomacy all point to escalation.
A caretaker Netanyahu, Trump's post-midterm freedom and inspectors still blocked make Nov 4 onward the highest-risk window of this war.
SPEARPOINT DAILY SITREP | Tue 27 Oct 2026
Brazil saw its worst stock-market day since 1998 after Lula's win, and Bolsonaro is seeking to annul the result. Israel votes today, with Netanyahu trailing in most polls. Trump calls an Iran ceasefire "a waste of time."
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🇧🇷 BRAZIL CRASH: The Ibovespa closed down 13.88% at 176,608 after falling as much as 17% intraday. The dollar jumped 8.79% against the real.
B3 halted trading for 30 minutes, its first circuit breaker since the COVID crash in 2020.
3/
🇧🇷 The Treasury canceled its Oct 27–29 debt auctions. At a 15% drop, the Ibovespa was already on track for its biggest one-day fall since 1998, per Reuters.
ING: "There was a strong consensus that it was going the way of Bolsonaro."
4/
🇧🇷 FINAL COUNT: Lula 51.79%, Bolsonaro 48.21%, a margin of 4.43M votes. Pollsters say higher turnout carried Lula.
Bolsonaro is asking the courts to annul the result, citing a two-hour voting extension the Supreme Court ordered. Analysts see the challenge as a long shot.
5/
🇧🇷 Read: the market loaded up on the Bolsonaro trade, and I did too. Before the vote, BTG Pactual had warned a Lula win could knock the Ibovespa down about 17% to ~170K. That's almost exactly what happened.
Strong commodity revenue should cushion the real somewhat.
11/
🇺🇸 TRUMP: He called a ceasefire with Iran "sort of a waste of time," touting the blockade and claiming US "total control."
Qatar says mediation needs Iran to show good faith, stop threatening Arab states and reopen Hormuz. The gap hasn't moved.
12/
💰 Bessent told Iran International that Iranians should stock up on gasoline and heating fuel ahead of expected shortages.
He predicts Iran's economy will shrink by more than a quarter in the year to March 2027.
13/
☢️ An Iranian lawmaker called for leaving the nuclear treaty and building a bomb: "if war breaks out again, we will set the world on fire."
He said leaving the treaty would need sign-off from the National Security Council. This is the second such call in a week.
14/
🇮🇷 Rezaei met Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on Hormuz, relations with neighbors and ending the "neither war nor peace" state.
Parliament speaker Ghalibaf says Khamenei is in "full health." Both claims are aimed at quieting rumors about his condition.
15/
⚓ Iran's new strait authority threatens legal action from Nov 1 against vessels of South Korean shipper Sinokor, citing more passage violations than any other company.
The US has sanctioned this authority. Shippers are caught between US and Iranian rules.
16/
🇰🇷 Iran's ambassador warned South Korea not to get more involved as Seoul weighs options to protect shipping near Hormuz.
Read: the Sinokor threat is pressure on Seoul.
17/
🇷🇺 Pezeshkian met Qatar's emir at the gas exporters' summit in Moscow; a meeting with Putin is expected.
Qatar is now buying US LNG to cover lost Hormuz exports, a big shift in global gas flows.
18/
🇬🇧 FAIRFORD: Two men were charged under the UK's National Security Act over activity near the US-operated base. Police say Iran is the foreign intelligence service involved.
My Quick take: Two lessons from Brazil. When the market leans hard one way, a surprise hits violently. And prediction markets near 80% still lose one time in five.
I'm applying that to Israel: Netanyahu is the underdog in most polls, not the favorite.
On Iran: Tehran won't talk until its conditions are met, Washington won't agree to a ceasefire, and the Tehran meeting produced only more talks.
The stalemate continues into Nov 3. Israel's result tonight is the next major factor in the strike calculation.
Thoughts from Michael Hartnett, BofA | Enter The Dragon
Zeitgeist quotes:
•"Worst thing that could happen to this bull move in Treasuries is a recession."
•"If I bought a cemetery, people would stop dying," client on being long China.
While markets remain focused on AI valuations and the Fed, several developments suggest a broader shift in global risk:
•China's deflationary pressure: The CSI 300 has entered bear-market territory, property investment continues to decline, and China's high-tech exports reached a record $147bn in September, up 63% YoY. Weak domestic demand is increasingly translating into aggressive export competition and pressure on global corporate margins.
•AI investment concerns: Massive hyperscaler capex commitments are raising questions about future returns. "No AI boom = no boom" captures how dependent earnings expectations have become on continued AI investment.
•Bond market warning: US Treasuries have experienced their worst rolling 10-year returns in a century. Yet bonds are attracting renewed inflows as investors reassess growth risks.
•A significant rotation: Technology funds attracted $18.8bn in a single week, while consumer funds experienced record outflows. Market leadership is becoming increasingly concentrated even as technology valuations face scrutiny.
•2027 earnings expectations: Global technology EPS growth forecasts have climbed to 43%, leaving considerable room for disappointment if AI investment slows.
The paradox is that weaker growth could support government bonds while simultaneously undermining the corporate earnings assumptions supporting equity valuations.
The key risk is not necessarily an immediate market crash, but a combination of Chinese export deflation, tighter credit conditions and an AI investment slowdown.
Are markets pricing a temporary correction, or the beginning of a more fundamental repricing of global growth expectations
SPEARPOINT DAILY SITREP | Mon 26 Oct 2026
Weekend headline: Lula won Brazil's runoff in a historic comeback, and Brazilian assets are being hit hard. US intel warns of advanced Iranian plots against US diplomats. Israel votes tomorrow.
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🔥 WEEKEND TOP 5:
1Lula beat Bolsonaro, and the Brazil ETF plunged
2Brent settled at $116.72 Friday
3Iranian assassination plots and US embassy drawdowns
4Trump: make a deal or "finish them off"
5Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani officials meet Iran in Tehran today
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🇧🇷 BRAZIL: Lula won 51.76% to Bolsonaro's 48.24%, a margin of over 4 million votes. He is the first candidate since 1989 to win a runoff after finishing second in the first round.
⚠️ My base case leaned Bolsonaro, in line with polls and prediction markets. That was wrong.
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🇧🇷 MARKET HIT: The US-listed Brazil ETF (EWZ) plunged nearly 20% in overnight trading, reversing the rally after Bolsonaro's first-round win. Reports say Bolsonaro has refused to concede.
Expect the real and the Ibovespa to fall sharply today. Watch Bolsonaro's next move.
5/
🇧🇷 Read: Lula will face a right-leaning Congress after the right's gains in the first round. Expect gridlock on budget and fiscal policy.
A strained relationship with Trump's Washington is now likely, given US backing for Bolsonaro.
16/
🇷🇺 Iran's President Pezeshkian goes to Moscow for the Oct 27 gas exporters' summit, where Araghchi says he will meet Putin.
Watch for Russian support for Iran, including help with gas supply.
17/
⚓ HORMUZ: A tanker leaving through the strait was struck and disabled Friday (reported late). The crew is safe.
CENTCOM says it has helped more than 3,000 commercial vessels through, and Gulf partners have exported over 1.5B barrels.
18/
🇶🇦 ENERGY SHIFT: Reuters says QatarEnergy is negotiating long-term US LNG purchases from Woodside, on top of a Cheniere deal and advanced talks with Venture Global.
The Hormuz disruption is driving lasting changes in global LNG supply.
19/
🇮🇱 ISRAEL VOTES TOMORROW: Netanyahu posted an AI-generated video of Iran's Supreme Leader "endorsing" him: "only Likud can stop Iran."
He has warned of a forceful response to any Iranian interference in the vote.
My quick take: Last week's market call was right, the Brazil call was wrong.
Brent ran past $113 to $116.72 as flagged. But I underweighted Lula's ability to consolidate centrist and anti-Bolsonaro votes. Lesson: a first-round lead doesn't guarantee a runoff win.
On Iran, all the signals point to a decision soon after Nov 3: embassy drawdowns, assassination plots, "finish them off" rhetoric.
The Tehran meeting is the last regional diplomatic push before then. Without a breakthrough, Brent at $120+ is the November base case.
