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A Retail investor's breakdown of the acquisition that quietly reshaped $ONDS - and why I think most of the market missed its importance.
$ONDS Q3 earnings preview Nov 12
Q2 recap:
- Revenue $83.8M (+67% QoQ, 13x YoY)
- $175M in new orders
- Backlog $613M, or $757M pro forma
with DZYNE + Cyberhawk
- $1.4B cash
- Adj. EBITDA loss of $50.6M, which management says was the peak
Q3 guide: $140–155M
That's ~75% QoQ growth at the midpoint. They'd already booked $105M in new Q3 orders by Aug 10
Q4 is where it gets wild:
The FY26 guide is $525–550M. Take out H1 (~$134M) and Q3, and Q4 lands around $235–275M
~$250M × 4 = a $1B annualized run rate exiting 2026, that's the bar heading into '27
They're also targeting operating-platform EBITDA profitability in Q4
What I'm watching:
1. Q3 revenue vs ~$148M Street
2. FY26 guide reaffirmed or raised
3. The Q4 bridge to the $1B run rate
4. EBITDA loss actually shrinking
5. Backlog + order flow
The stock has bled since the last print while revenue is about to nearly double QoQ. Nov 12 decides which chart is wrong
Long $ONDS NFA
$ONDS IT’S TIME!
BUCKLE UP...
This algo has historically returned TRIPLE buy and hold, and it just gave an entry signal saying $ONDS is about to RIP... 🤯
trendspider.cc/ONDS1hrORB
🚨 Anduril is reportedly eyeing a ~$120B valuation for a new round in Q1 2027
That's roughly 2x the $61B it raised at in May
Private money is screaming that defense tech + autonomy is the trade of the decade
Now look at the public side:
Anduril: ~$120B on ~$2.2B last reported revenue = ~55x sales
$ONDS: ~$3.6B market cap on a $525–550M 2026 revenue guide = ~7x sales
Same playbook. A fraction of the price
Why $ONDS is basically the public mini Anduril:
- Counter-drone: Anduril has Anvil + Roadrunner. Ondas has Iron Drone Raider interceptors + Sentrycs RF takeover
- Autonomous drones: Anduril's Ghost & Bolt, Ondas' Optimus drone-in-a-box + DZYNE
- Ground robots: Roboteam UGVs
- ISR from the edge of space: World View
- Same M&A roll-up strategy: Anduril bought Area-I, Dive, Blue Force, Ondas is stacking DZYNE, Sentrycs, Mistral, Roboteam, World View, Cyberhawk
- Selling into the US + allied militaries
Revenue guide went from $140M to $525+ million in one year
The difference? You can't buy Anduril, You can buy $ONDS
Q3 earnings Nov 12, I’ll be watching closely
Not financial advice. I hold $ONDS
"Ondas dilutes too much" is the #1 reply I get when I “shill” $ONDS
So let's do the math on it
Shares outstanding:
- 2025: ~222M (avg)
- Today: ~582M
That's ~2.6x more shares, the bears like to stop there
Now look at revenue:
- 2025: $50.7M
- 2026 guide: $525–550M
That's ~10x more revenue
Revenue PER SHARE, the number that actually matters to you:
- 2025: ~$0.23
- 2026: ~$0.92
- 2027 (~$1B, ~662M shares after the January DZYNE shares): ~$1.51
So each share you own now has ~4x the revenue behind it than it did a year ago, even after all the dilution
Next year it's on track for another +60%
Dilution only hurts when the money gets wasted. Here it bought DZYNE, Sentrycs, Mistral, Cyberhawk, and so much more. It also broughta $757M backlog
The share count went up 2.6x, the business behind every share went up 4x
Next time you try to shitpost $ONDS for being a “dilution machine” open your eyes and do the math, then we can talk
Not financial advice I own $ONDS
Hugo 🇨🇦 retweeted
$ONDS is about to do a heavy reversal, IMO
Respecting the support level perfectly
Check out the RSI on the weekly, on the verge of breaking above the bearish formation
If it does, the reversal is in
NFA
I think one of the most underrated assets inside $ONDS is DZYNE's ULTRA which is an Air Force-deployed Group 5 drone that can stay airborne for over 3 days carrying ~400 pounds of sensors.
And at just ~$10M compared to ~$40M for an MQ-9 you can see how the military could potentially field 4 ULTRAs for the price of one which fits perfectly with its growing push toward affordable mass.
Hugo 🇨🇦 retweeted
I think one of the most underrated assets inside $ONDS is DZYNE's ULTRA which is an Air Force-deployed Group 5 drone that can stay airborne for over 3 days carrying ~400 pounds of sensors.
And at just ~$10M compared to ~$40M for an MQ-9 you can see how the military could potentially field 4 ULTRAs for the price of one which fits perfectly with its growing push toward affordable mass.
Let's do some revenue math on $ONDS
The stock is ~$6. Market cap is ~$3.6B
They're sitting on roughly $1B in cash, and they're guiding $525–550M in revenue THIS year, with ~$1B expected next year
That means the market values the actual business at under 3x next year's sales, for a drone + counter-drone company growing 10x this year
Let's see what happens if a few things go right:
1. The baseline (already in guidance)
- 2026 guide: $525–550M
- Pro forma backlog: $757M at June 30
- +$270M in new orders since then
- 2-year pipeline: $11 billion+
- DZYNE alone: $191M this year, $300 million+ next year
~$1B in 2027 is the BASE. Everything below is upside on top of that
2. Dronebuster REACH
The handheld Dronebuster has sold 3,000+ units in 50+ countries at ~$30- 60K each. It's the only American-made handheld of its kind
REACH just launched as the long-range version. No price is announced yet, but long-range jammers usually sell for 4–6x their handheld versions. Call it 5x, or ~$150K per unit
- REACH sells 1/3 of what the handheld did: 1,000 × $150K = ~$150M
- REACH matches the handheld: 3,000 × $150K = ~$450M
They're selling to the same customers in the same 50 countries. This is an installed base, not a new start
3. ULTRA vs the Reaper
After losses over Iran, the Air Force's Reaper fleet is down to ~135 aircraft. It says it needs 189
The Reaper production line is closed and would take 2-3 years to restart, and each Reaper runs ~$30M
ULTRA flies 80+ hours (vs ~27 for a Reaper) and costs ~$8-9M.
- Just fill the gap (54 aircraft × ~$9M): ~$486M
- Cover the full 189 requirement: ~$1.7B
ULTRA is a surveillance aircraft and carries no weapons. Think wingman/gap-filler, not a 1:1 swap
DZYNE built it for the Air Force precisely because the big primes were too expensive
5. The $1.5T defense budget
The FY27 request is $1.5T, with ~$75B for drones and counter-drone. That's the biggest drone investment in US history
- Ondas wins 0.5% of that: ~$375M/yr
- Wins 1%: ~$750M/yr
5. The extra stuff people forget
- $56M precision strike order for a European loitering munition
- Regna AI, built with Palantir
- IonStrike kinetic interceptor
- DZYNE margins: mid-teens in 2027, mid-20s in 2028
- Company-wide EBITDA positive targeted for Q4 2027
- ~40% of the float is sold short
"But dilution!" (I know you're typing it 😂), Assume M&A slows. The known dilution:
- 45M DZYNE shares issue Jan 4, 2027. Already announced, not a surprise
- Stock comp of ~15–20M shares a year
That take us from ~582M - ~695M by 2029 in my base case, with no new raise needed: ~$1B in cash, shrinking burn, EBITDA positive by Q4 2027
Bonus: the 121M warrants from January have a $28 strike. If they ever get exercised, Ondas collects $3.4B in cash. That's a problem I'd love to have
So what's it worth?
Bear: growth stalls at $0.8–1.15B, they raise at the lows (~820M shares),
priced at 2x sales = ~$4
Base: $1B -> $1.4B -> $1.8B, no raise,
priced at 5.5x sales 1 yr: ~$9.60 | 2 yr: ~$12.60 | 3 yr: ~$15.70+
Bull: REACH + ULTRA + budget wins stack on top, $1.3B -> $2B -> $2.8B, priced at 7x sales: 1 yr: ~$16 | 2 yr: ~$23 | 3 yr: ~$32
From ~$6 today, that's bear -35%, base ~2.5x, bull ~5x
Street targets sat in the high teens as recently as this summer
And honestly the bull case is starting to seem more and more like the base case
The downside is "it gets cheaper." The upside is "it becomes a real defense prime.", that's the asymmetry
Next checkpoint is Q3 earnings (~Nov 12), with a guide of $140-155 million. Hit it and the revenue chart keeps going one direction and we head for that $1B 27 ARR in Q4
Not financial advice. I own $ONDS, do your own math, I just did mine
Hugo 🇨🇦 retweeted
Anthropic is reportedly committing over $600B to future compute after generating $16B in revenue on nearly $9B of compute spending during 1H26.
That's ~$1.80 in revenue for every dollar spent on compute and and shows just how much future demand could flow toward AI infrastructure providers like $IREN, $CRWV and $NBIS.
$ONDS
"Ondas just buys revenue."
Okay, Let's take acquisitions out
If you pretend $ONDS owned every one of its current businesses a year ago and compare same portfolio vs same portfolio, Q2 revenue still grew 85% YoY.
That's not M&A math, that's the businesses they bought growing faster after Ondas bought them
The acquisitions add the revenue. The platform is what's making it grow.
Incredibly undervalued, long $ONDS
NFA
Hugo 🇨🇦 retweeted
$ONDS “But what about dilution?”
Ondas issued shares to strategically buy top businesses, stack cash & land defense deals.
Result: revenue exploding (guidance $525-550M), huge backlog, $270M+ new orders.
Growth is outrunning the share count.
That’s how you win.
