Just an outspoken geek, with a side interest in finance, investing and semiconductors. Not advice. https://nitter.gq/t.co/3fzuVDPQrh
Joined February 2013
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🧵Proof that Peter Lynch was (and possibly still is in his private investing these days) the greatest investor ever -
images.aqr.com/-/media/AQR/D…
People seem to have forgotten about Lynch in comparison to Buffett.
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FYI, I might not be posting much here and on Substack for a while ...
My surgery is scheduled for next week at UCSF. The recovery after the final 4th round of chemo has been the slowest and most difficult. But I'm glad it's done for now. Toughest thing I've done. The tumor shrank a fair bit and cancer activity levels have come down. The remaining needs to be removed by surgery. Since my hip bone was also involved it will unfortunately involve portions of it to be removed in a hemipelvectomy. Will need to undergo major rehab and PT afterwards. Might be six months before I'm able to walk without an assistive device. But the important part is that the cancer be gone.
Been debating whether to make this post, but I've met and talked with so many wonderful folks here and on Substack that I decided to share.
The news isn't good. I have cancer. Hip and leg pain turned out to be a tumor in my pelvis. Baffling case, and tests still running at UCSF, but it's likely some form of Germ Cell Tumor.
Completely out of the blue. I'm no Ironman, but I ran a few miles a day before all this with zero clues. I'm staying positive and resolved to beat it, though it's brutal on family. Starting chemo today.
I'll keep writing here as much as I'm able, likely at a slower pace. My one regret is not pursuing my passion fulltime sooner.
Be thankful for what you have, count your blessings, and live life to the fullest every day.
Recovering after 2nd round chemo finished yesterday. Confirmation from tests that it’s a germ cell tumor with teratoma and likely somatic transformations. Localized so far. Scans in between will tell more. Consulting with Stanford as well.
You think you are tough and then you undergo chemo. Respect to anyone who endured. Thank you for all the wishes❤️
My surgery is scheduled for next week at UCSF. The recovery after the final 4th round of chemo has been the slowest and most difficult. But I'm glad it's done for now. Toughest thing I've done. The tumor shrank a fair bit and cancer activity levels have come down. The remaining needs to be removed by surgery. Since my hip bone was also involved it will unfortunately involve portions of it to be removed in a hemipelvectomy. Will need to undergo major rehab and PT afterwards. Might be six months before I'm able to walk without an assistive device. But the important part is that the cancer be gone.
Speaking of aircraft manufacturers, the post below about $EMBJ is my favorite Substack post but alas the least read -
outspokengeek.substack.com/p…
Except that @MebFaber is forgetting that aircraft manufacturers made a lot of money. Which could mean the semiconductor firms will continue to make money.
Except that @MebFaber is forgetting that aircraft manufacturers made a lot of money. Which could mean the semiconductor firms will continue to make money.
Best analogy I've heard recently for the bear case on AI (via @unpopularvc)
AI firms are like the airlines.
Amazing invention
Changed the world
Everyone uses them
Trillion dollar biz
.....but....
Extremely competitive
High capital requirements
Absolute garbage investment
See also -
nitter.gq/Jesse_Livermore/status…
That was the greatest capex before AI and the railroad equipment manufacturers made a lot more money.
Interestingly enough I remember that Peter Lynch made a similar argument but w.r.t bonds vs. stocks when it comes to income in 'Beating the Street' (Chapter 3).
The growth in dividends is key -
Lessons one keeps learning... Even for dividends, growth can be all that matters!
Of course, it helps if you had the conviction to not sell most of it, unlike me -
nitter.gq/OutspokenGeek/status/1…
The human brain has trouble understanding exponentials and extreme compounding.
e.g. $NVDA recently increased dividends -
finance.yahoo.com/markets/st…
The dividends paid each year now are greater than your cost basis if you had a long enough holding period!
Lessons one keeps learning... Even for dividends, growth can be all that matters!
Of course, it helps if you had the conviction to not sell most of it, unlike me -
nitter.gq/OutspokenGeek/status/1…
🧵My first 100 bagger.
Before, you become jealous (or congratulate me), it's more like a million-dollar mistake! Wait, what?
I'll explain more in this thread. This was before I had gained enough experience or read the excellent 100 bagger book by @chriswmayer
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ALT $NVDA 100 bagger
OutspokenGeek retweeted
BREAKING: THE GOATS LISA AND FEI-FEI ARE TEAMING UP!
So excited to welcome @theworldlabs and @drfeifei to the @AMD family! I’ve always been a huge fan of Fei-Fei and her pioneering research in AI. Together, we’ll combine World Labs’ deep expertise in AI and world models with AMD’s compute leadership to power the future of AI and strengthen the open AI ecosystem. Can’t wait for all we’ll accomplish!
Apple has deemed it necessary it seems.
"... would be offered in two versions: one with two of Apple’s forthcoming M8 Ultra chips and a more souped-up edition with four of the M8 Ultra chips." -
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Wow it’s still this bad. Also does not bother anyone else that when folded it has rounded edges only one side given Apple and Jobs’ obsession with that?
Android does this better with rectangular edges. Don’t get fetish with round. Screens naturally/mathematically are rectangles.
For running enthusiasts, Apple Watch Ultra has been frustrating esp. during Interval Training as HR readings suck. Makes using a Polar chest strap necessary. For Ultra 4 they've published a new study -
apple.com/legal/more-resourc…
But @Apple how about fixing the Polar BLE connection to Apple Watch as well? That has been a source of frustration as well. Hopefully improved in Ultra 4.
Remember this? -
"This means technically they are eligible for inclusion in the S&P 500, although that’s at the discretion of the committee later in the year."
Well, it's happening now! S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that $BE will be joining the S&P 500 on Sep 21.
Guess what/who helps you avoid all this?
@elonmusk said it so well.
Finding a gas turbine ≠ getting power.
You still need permits, interconnection and emissions compliance—especially SCR. Each can become a 12+ month bottleneck.
The real AI power shortage is not equipment. It's deployment lead time.
Please refer to the report below for details.
fundaai.substack.com/p/deepa…
How many people truly understand what a GPU is and most importantly why? -
How are GPUs VLIW like, even if the internal instruction format could be?
GPUs are SIMT throughput machines which execute the same instruction across many over-subscribed threads, interleave many such groups to hide latency, and coalesce their memory accesses (row access) to consume DRAM/HBM at maximum bandwidth.
The reason for that is the physics of parallel computing/DRAM and is fundamentally different from anything TPU like.