If I see one more p/ocf chart for what are now capex heavy businesses I’m going to bang all your moms
PSA to all of the tweet replies I got who said the move is normal in EMs
BREAKING: Brazil's -19.8% stock market crash on Monday was one of the rarest market events in the last two decades, according to our analysis.
Brazil's EWZ ETF plunged -19.8% on October 26th, marking an 8.4 standard deviation move.
For context, the ETF's average daily move over the last 20 years has been just +0.04%, with a standard deviation of 2.36%.
Under a normal distribution, the probability of a decline this extreme is approximately 1 in 58 quadrillion.
In other words, this event should be virtually impossible under conventional statistical models.
What just happened in Brazil was *almost* impossible.
I know nearly nothing about Brazilian politics but have alot of Brazilian connections on social media. The reaction to the election results was unanimously positive / happy
Another 2-3x normal volume day bc of Brazil election. Think it’s positive it was barely down & rallied from morning despite >20% of rev from BRL
Also worth noting they said they have 500 employees already working on it for 2 years. That’s 1/3rd of NBIS with no revenue from it. They already have 25k GPUs supporting core biz (w/mismatch s&d bc of peak retail/gaming periods)
Some costs are already in current ebit
Prepared Remarks retweeted
Goldman: Rotations in the equity market this week reflected a sharp hedge fund derisking.
On Thursday our Hedge Fund VIP long/short basket pair fell by 4%, a decline only rivaled during the past decade on DeepSeek Monday in January 2025 and during the COVID sell-off in March 2020.
Likewise, GS Prime Services data show a large decline in gross leverage that has contributed to an unusually challenging environment for hedge fund returns. Following the unwind of the last two weeks, they estimate that fundamental hedge fund net leverage registers close to 5-year lows while gross leverage remains well above historical averages.
Nobody is grossing/netting up into war escalation and midterms. Soxx will take out the July lows before there’s any sustained rally from there
$SE is a war stock
