Managing Partner and co-founder @augeopartners
New York
Joined January 2011
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Paolo Timoni retweeted
Jamie Dimon says he refused to let political pressure stop him from working with Trump: “Forget all that. What’s the right thing to do? And then do it.” 🇺🇸
“When Trump became president, I went on his business council. My daughter wrote me a long, beautiful, elegant, thoughtful letter ending with a quote from Martin Luther King Jr.‘s Letter from Birmingham Jail. My other daughter and my wife said, ‘Ditto. And don’t come home for dinner.’
I wrote back and said, ‘You got everything right except for one thing. Martin Luther King would have gone to the White House every day to further his goals and his values.’
People get pushed around by the press. Don’t do that. Forget all that. What’s the right thing to do? And then do it.
We’ve always tried to support the American government under every president. The press attacks you from the left and the right. I’m used to that.”
In America, there’s been this silent shift of divide that’s only continued to increase. Many Americans forget we’re on the same team, and should support whoever wins and gets into office. Because it’s a direct representation of what the majority believed to be the right decision. No matter what political party they identify with. Elections are cyclical.
Paolo Timoni retweeted
Immigration policy must be driven by the present, not the past, and business leaders are too terrified of the left AND the right to acknowledge this.
Recent H1B discourse revolves around a longstanding immigration sleight-of-hand. H1B proponents point to exceptional people who came here decades ago as if they represent the current state of the program in the same way that advocates for low-skill/illegal immigration point to very favorable immigrant crime/welfare/education/etc statistics that do, in truth, have them beating native-born Americans on many fronts.
It is all a sham. The world that created those statistics, people, and businesses no longer exists. Brilliant but desperate Vietnamese fathers who fled communism have nothing in common with young men from Honduras, and the crime rates/economic acccomplishments/integration of the former should not be used to justify mass migration of the latter.
Nor should the accomplishments of people who managed to get an H1B visa in the 90s (when the program was capped to just 65,000 visas) be used to justify staffing agencies and tech companies using the program to replace American jobs for less money. The obvious abuse going on is politically suicidal and something that even the most ardent supporters of the visa should want to crack down on, no immigration program can possibly survive the obvious and widely known reality of what is going on. I am a longtime outspoken advocate for stealing the best people from other countries to make our own better, runaway abuse of existing programs robs the government of the worker trust required to do so.
Lots of people in the tech space know this. Even the dumb people are smart enough to see it. Nobody actually believes these are all incredible people with unique talents performing jobs no American can. Everyone knows the guy in Cubicle Bay 7 doing mediocre but functional web design for half the salary of his American peers is no savant and doesn't meet the statutory requirements for his H-1B visa.
Unfortunately, most people with power or profile are terrified that any public statement or acknowledgement will get them attacked by the right (You guys have been screwing over American workers for years with visa abuse, you damn hypocrite!) or the left (You are racist, sexist, misogynist, and sucking up to this fascist administration!). Or, more likely, both. I know too many tech execs in particular who feel trapped, like the only winning move is to stay silent.
JD is blowing the whole thing wide open by putting facts and stats front and center that nobody wants to engage with. Critics will talk about anything and everything else but these damning facts and this obvious truth, that H1B visas serve neither their original purpose, legal purpose, invented purpose, or the American people.
Vice President JD Vance breaks down the data:
"If you are working as an H-1B visa in the United States of America, you’re earning $20,000 less than an American citizen hired in the same position. If you were brought in by one of these foreign outsourcing firms, you’re making $48,000 less than an American citizen in a similar position. So I’m sure that everybody here understands the game that is being played. You bring in indentured servants from outside the country, you lay off American workers and, if you’re a corporation, you make a ton of money by under cutting the wages of American workers, replacing them with people who frankly shouldn’t be in the United States of America to begin with."
Paolo Timoni retweeted
INSANE 🚨 100% of New York adult daycares that were audited WERE FRAUD
“We audited 15 of these — There's no record of a single meal, activity, single hour of supervision”
ILLEGAL KICKBACKS were also reported with these adult daycares. How the scam works is the daycares will sign people up and offer them $1,000 per month cash
The adult daycare can bill about $120 per day to taxpayers. So they make about $3,600 per person and give the person $1,000 of it per month back as a kickback
So they pocket $2,600. The person with the Medicaid insurance gets $1,000
Taxpayers are being robbed blind
Paolo Timoni retweeted
Let me explain reality… if you have but sixty seconds:
They were targeting Elon
They were targeting him with fake charges because the socialist-industrial complex is terrified that he would expose their long grift.
They came after him for the Model 3 and Elon’s claims around its potential.
That potential was realized, and it became, along with the Model Y, the best-selling electric vehicle ever created.
These were fake charges to try to stop somebody from building the best category-defining product.
Let that sink in: that's how evil these motherfuckers are.
The loooooong grift has been exposed: socialist grifters are stealing our tax dollars to fund fringe lunacy, NGOs and government programs without oversight or audits.
They’re parasites incapable of creating any product or service that has to compete in the open market.
Elon creates a couple of cutting-edge products each year, and half of them succeed.
Some of them actually change the world. Some of them fail brutally.
It's called capitalism. It's called creation.
This is what moves the human condition forward: trying things.
Trying really hard things.
Socialists come for the people building valuable products and services — that’s the tell
Keep your eye out for the people who've created nothing and risked nothing, but who are attacking the people who risk everything to create Something.
That's the tell.
Paolo Timoni retweeted
BREAKING: Citadel founder Ken Griffin says AI is "almost certainly" a bubble, noting that companies are struggling to turn AI spending into productivity gains.
However, Griffin says he is bullish on AI's long-term potential.
Paolo Timoni retweeted
People worry rising long-term interest rates are bearish. But if long rates rise faster than short rates, it is actually bullish because it increases the yield spread and banks’ desire to lend. The more banks lend, the more money there is for all forms of economic activity on Main Street and on Wall Street—and stocks tend to do well in that environment.
Paolo Timoni retweeted
For too long, New Yorkers have been told to accept crime, fraud, and disorder. It doesn't have to be this way.
As Attorney General, I'll do what I've done my entire career: Just Fight Crime.
If you're ready to help us win, chip in today: bit.ly/45yqyPX
Paolo Timoni retweeted
What Elon Musk just announced is revolutionary. To understand why, you have to go back to July.
In July, Zanny Minton Beddoes, editor-in-chief of The Economist, sat down with Musk. He told her what he's been saying for years: AI and robots will create an age of abundance. Not universal basic income. Universal high income.
She asked the question every economist asks: "Where's the revenue coming from?" If you just issue checks, you get inflation.
At the time, even Musk gave the old answer: the Treasury should issue checks.
This morning, he gave a completely different one. One SpaceX share to every kid in America. The first of many.
Not printed money. Ownership of the value itself. That's the real answer to her question. The revenue comes from where the value is created.
And in the age of AI, where is value created? In private companies. Not in ministries, not in agencies, not in parliaments. The models, the robots, the chips, the energy, the rockets. Almost every productivity explosion of the next twenty years will happen inside companies that build.
Once you understand that, the question of the century changes. It's no longer "will there be abundance?" It's "how do we share it?"
There are only two models.
In the first, the State sits in the middle. It taxes the companies that create value, then redistributes it. Every dollar passes through politicians, agencies, committees, lobbies. It arrives late, it arrives smaller, and it arrives captured. And it's inflationary by nature, because the State injects money without owning any of the production behind it.
In the second, the entrepreneur distributes directly. Those who create the value hand ownership of it to citizens. No intermediary. Your income grows at the speed of the value being created. And deflation stops being your enemy: when AI drives the cost of everything toward zero, you're not holding a fixed check that politicians forgot to index. You own the machine that's driving prices down.
We already know the State is a useless layer. Everything it touches becomes unaffordable: housing, tuition, healthcare. Everything it leaves alone gets cheaper and better every year.
And in the age of superintelligence, that layer becomes even more absurd. Musk believes AI will exceed the intelligence of all humans combined within five years. In that world, what exactly is the function of a bureaucracy whose job is to take from one hand and give to the other, slowly, taking its cut along the way? The State was a slow layer in a slow world. In an exponential world, it's a bottleneck.
QED: Elon Musk is disrupting the State.
Not by fighting it. By making it unnecessary. It's the same playbook he's always run. He didn't lobby NASA to get better, he built SpaceX. He didn't beg carmakers to go electric, he built Tesla. He's not asking the State to redistribute better. He's building the alternative, and letting everyone compare.
In 2008, everyone bet he'd go bankrupt. They bet rockets would never land. They bet electric cars would never sell.
Now they're betting the State is irreplaceable.
Don't bet against Elon.
Two days ago I wrote about a mechanism: everything the state touches becomes unaffordable, and the young people suffering from it blame capitalism instead of the state.
This morning, Elon Musk announced he'll give one SpaceX share to every kid in America. And this is the move that breaks that mechanism completely.
Go back to Mark Perry's chart. At the top, what explodes: housing, tuition, healthcare, childcare. Sectors where the state subsidizes demand and blocks supply. At the bottom, what collapses: TVs, phones, software. Sectors where companies compete to serve you better and cheaper.
Now look at the two models of universal income through that chart.
The state model sends you a check. A check is subsidized demand. And we know exactly what happens when you subsidize demand without freeing supply: prices rise to swallow it. Give everyone $1,000 a month while building permits stay blocked, and landlords capture it within two years. The state check feeds the top of the chart. It's the same mechanism that made tuition explode, applied to an entire economy.
Musk's model gives you ownership. Not a check, a stake in the machine at the bottom of the chart, the deflation machine. When AI and robots drive the cost of almost everything toward zero, you're not waiting for a politician to vote you a raise. You own the thing that's creating the abundance.
But the real checkmate is narrative.
The whole system runs on one story: the capitalist is the villain. The boss, the rich, the multinational. Schools tell it, universities tell it, subsidized culture tells it. Because the system will never name itself as the culprit.
What happens to that story when the richest man in the world puts a piece of his company in the hands of every child in the country?
It collapses. A 12-year-old who owns SpaceX doesn't grow up reading the world as oppressor versus oppressed. He grows up as an owner. He watches his share move when a rocket lands. He understands, in his gut and not from a textbook, that value comes from people who build, not from people who redistribute.
You can't make capital the enemy when capital is in your account. You can't attack a gift to children without exposing what you're really defending: the intermediary. The bureaucrat. The middle layer that lives off the gap between those who create and those who receive.
That's the checkmate. Not an argument. Not a debate. Musk isn't trying to convince this generation that the state is the problem. He's making the state irrelevant, and letting them see it for themselves.
The last generation learned to protest against those who create.
The next one will grow up owning them.
Paolo Timoni retweeted
Let me fix that tweet for you:
1. The people rioting in Paris are criminals who are committing crimes.
2. Destroying hard-working people’s businesses is evil and not a valid form of protest.
From the high schools of France to the streets of Madrid to the universities of Tirana, young people are telling their governments the same thing: in an age of massive wealth inequality, they want a future they can believe in.
In France, students and teachers are asking for safe schools, enough teachers and smaller classes.
In Spain, for affordable rent and housing.
In Albania, for good jobs and an end to corruption.
@JDVance says this is what happens when a nation lets in too many immigrants from the global south.
He is not just morally wrong, but misreading the moment.
The is what happens when nations let wealth and power accumulate in the hands of a few.
This is what happens when young people lose hope in their future.
In America, let us listen to our young.
We need an economic and political transformation.
America's Next New Deal.
Paolo Timoni retweeted
Premise:
Incentives drive all human behavior.
The corollary:
How to destroy a country:
A vast social security and support system that serves as a magnet for those who would rather not work.
An open immigration policy that does not screen immigrants to determine their ability and willingness to provide for themselves and their families.
An open immigration policy that does not screen for political and/or religious ideologies that are a threat to the country.
Economic incentives large enough to incentivize immigrants on the state dole to have large numbers of children, but insufficient for educated and economically productive mothers to be able to quit to raise a family.
The declining fertility of the most educated and productive women due to their delay to begin a family as a result of their desire and/or need to advance their careers, among other reasons, to live a life they deem consistent with their educational achievements and/or to repay their student debts.
Amnesty programs that give citizenship and voting power to illegal immigrants without consideration of their economic productivity or their threat to the country due to their religious or political ideologies.
The changing demographics and increased population due to the above factors.
The state responding to protests by increasing social support.
The continued failure to punish and hold accountable violent and looting rioters.
Government managed by a massive and growing unelected bureaucracy.
Government fraud, waste, and abuse contributed to ballooning budgets.
Anti-business legislation that makes it difficult for businesses to compete in a global marketplace being disrupted by AI, including restrictions on firing even poorly performing employees.
Overly burdensome, globally uncompetitive, corporate taxation.
Continuous increases in personal taxes to raise funds to provide for the rapidly growing welfare state.
The substantial majority of the tax burden levied on a small percentage of the population.
A growing percentage of the electorate paying no taxes and receiving welfare.
The introduction or threat of a wealth tax including the taxation of unrealized gains, i.e., taxes on paper wealth.
The flight of the most productive business builders and highest taxpayers to lower tax countries with lesser security concerns.
A growing percentage of the electorate voting for candidates that support increased welfare and laws favorable to, and/or that match the cultural and ideological needs and desires of a growing unproductive immigrant population.
The rapid rise in anti-semitism and inadequate efforts to address this hatred.
Increased borrowing by the state to fund the growing social burden.
Higher sovereign interest rates due to all of the above.
The resulting need to reduce expenditures to make the math work.
Increasingly violent protests that make life less livable for the productive and law abiding citizens leading to their accelerated departure.
And so on…
Paolo Timoni retweeted
A 34-year-old man was shot and killed in a Midtown Manhattan subway station after an argument on the platform.
This happened at the 7th Avenue and 53rd Street station. Near Rockefeller Center and Times Square. Near Central Park and Broadway theaters. And it happened in the middle of the day — 12:21 p.m.
This is why so many families, workers, and tourists no longer feel safe in the subways.
I am running for Attorney General to put an end to this chaos. We all deserve a safer New York.
nypost.com/2026/10/17/us-new…
Paolo Timoni retweeted
Tonight, France burned. America, you should be watching very carefully.
Today, October 17, 2026, more than half a million people marched across France against the cost of living. By 8pm, around 400 had been arrested. In Paris, police turned water cannons on the crowds at Place de la République, and one march was stopped 150 meters from the Élysée Palace. Of the 195 people arrested in the capital by the afternoon, only one actually lived in Paris. Mobs forced their way into the city halls of Marseille and Lille. In Lyon, a tourism office was set on fire. In Rennes, barricades burned. Near Limoges, a highway was blocked and police cars were torched.
And then came Limoges.
A crowd of very young people stormed the city hall, a protected historic monument built in the 1880s. They flipped police cars in front of it and set them ablaze, then set the building itself on fire. The flames took the roof, the wedding hall, and the civil registry, the office that records every birth, every marriage, every death in the city. Tonight, the bell tower that has crowned Limoges for nearly 150 years collapsed.
The mayor's response: "It's a monument that is burning, not the Republic."
That is the problem in one sentence. Our leaders still think words can put out fires.
None of this came out of nowhere. For twenty years, the French political class has excused everything. Every riot was "anger." Every burned car was a "social symptom." Every attack on police was "a reaction to provocation." And the hard left, La France Insoumise, which officially backed today's mobilization, built its electoral machine on an alliance with political Islamism: refusing to condemn, refusing to name, trading secularism and public order for votes. In France we have a word for it. Islamo-gauchisme. Islamo-leftism.
Tonight you saw where that culture of excuse ends. A country where a mob can burn down a town hall, and the state arrives after the roof has already fallen in.
My dear American friends,
I say this with love, as someone who has lived among you and owes you a great deal: your midterms are on November 3rd. And the same alliance is growing inside your Democratic Party. The same far-left wing that treats disorder as protest and police as the enemy. The same activists who refuse to draw a line between legitimate dissent and those who openly despise the West. The same politicians who think tolerance means tolerating everything, including the people who want to burn it down.
It always starts with excuses. Then comes impunity. Then come the flames.
Same causes, same effects. If you create the conditions we created, you will get exactly what we got tonight.
France was the country of the Enlightenment, of cathedrals and town halls that stood for centuries. Tonight, one of them collapsed live on social media while the government called for calm.
My dear American friends, the only advantage you have over us is that you've been warned.
Vote like your city hall depends on it. Because one day, it will.
Paolo Timoni retweeted
If you hear the interview Joe Longsdale did to Nick Marwell and Sholto Douglas, Nick says something along the lines like "you need to protect frontier labs given the huge investment they did."
To me, that's denegerate. To think you can raise billions, corner the GPU market, scale as crazy so you do the classic VC play where winner takes all. That's all a big bet, and to think that if you miscalculated that competition would take less time to catch up then regulation should come to save you, is degeneracy. Sam Altman would even go as far as saying the government should bail them out.
Paolo Timoni retweeted
Is 10²⁵ FLOPs Still the Frontier?
A new Anthropic-written safety bill is circulating on Capitol Hill. Some of its ideas could be reasonable if limited to true frontier companies. As written, however, it will eventually sweep in most of Silicon Valley, damaging the startup ecosystem.
The bill defines the “frontier” as any model trained on 10²⁵ FLOPs — the EU standard from 2023. Biden’s executive order, California’s SB 53, and New York’s RAISE Act used 10²⁶ (ten times more). 10²⁷ is where the frontier actually is today (e.g., GPT-6 Astra).
Astra was reportedly trained on 100,000+ Grace Blackwell GPUs. A 10²⁵ model can be trained on as few as several hundred GB300 chips in three months. That is not frontier in 2026.
The definition is also cumulative: it adds FLOPs from fine-tuning, reinforcement learning, or other material modifications. In practice, that captures almost all meaningful post-training — work that is becoming commonplace in the enterprise.
The enterprise trend is toward thousands of smaller custom models built for specific workloads. These pose no frontier risk. Treating them as frontier systems would impose large compliance costs across corporate America for no safety gain.
Dario has claimed that Anthropic designs rules to disadvantage frontier companies like his own while advantaging smaller competitors. This definition does the opposite.
A stale 2023 cutoff favors incumbents who already clear the bar and can absorb the costs. It hobbles the open model ecosystem that threatens Anthropic’s pricing power.
The frontier keeps moving. Any definition meant to track risk should move with it.
Anthropic should clarify if they really believe 10²⁵ FLOPs represents the frontier.
Paolo Timoni retweeted
My jaw is on the floor
A look at the financial information of a taxpayer funded charter school in Minnesota called Lionsgate Academy shows it’s getting $33.4 million with ONLY 150 STUDENTS ENROLLED
“Graduation rate, 23%…. $34 million, they can't read or write, and their graduation rate is 23%. Why does this school exist? — What is it serving”
I looked into it and confirmed that of their over $33 million dollars in annual funding, 99% comes from taxpayers
What in the heck is going on in Minnesota??
Americans taxpayers are being robbed blind