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🧠 AI Engineer šŸˆ Fantasy, Contests & Sports Betting šŸ‘Øā€šŸ’» Building My AI Prediction Model Suite šŸ€ā›³ļøāš¾ļøšŸ¤– šŸ‘‰ Follow for Free Picks, Insights & Education šŸ“ššŸ»

Joined November 2023
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PGA OAD Ownership Projections ā›³ļø PGA Championship 1ļøāƒ£ 13.2% Jon Rahm (22% used) 2ļøāƒ£ 10.4% Rory McIlroy (52% used) 3ļøāƒ£ 10.2% Scottie Scheffler (60% used) 4ļøāƒ£ 8.6% Cameron Young (50% used) 5ļøāƒ£ 7.0% Bryson DeChambeau (13% used) 6ļøāƒ£ 5.7% Brooks Koepka (17% used) 7ļøāƒ£ 4.3% Rickie Fowler (14% used) 8ļøāƒ£ 4.3% Xander Schauffele (53% used) 9ļøāƒ£ 4.2% Ludvig Aberg (48% used) šŸ”Ÿ 4.0% Matt Fitzpatrick (52% used) Important to note — while this is 1 of 4 Majors, the purse last year was $19M so just below the 8 signature events which are $20M each. 3.8% Patrick Cantlay (40% used) 3.1% Collin Morikawa (49% used) 2.4% Justin Rose (15% used) 2.2% Tommy Fleetwood (42% used) 1.3% Min Woo Lee (23% used) 1.1% Sam Burns (20% used) 1.1% Nicolai Hojgaard (29% used) 1.1% Chris Gotterup (34% used) 1.0% Russell Henley (59% used) 0.9% J.J. Spaun (15% used)
1
4
8,964
Cardinals rookie running back Jeremiyah Love is dealing with a high ankle sprain, per sources. It makes it unlikely that Love plays again this preseason, with the team hoping he can return for the Sept. 13 regular-season opener vs the Chargers.
254
460
306
7,711
3,995,678
Ownership Projections Recap ā›³ļø PGA Championship My Top 10 vs Actual 🟢 Rahm: 13% (1) → 14% (1) šŸ”“ McIlroy: 10% (2) → 4% (7) 🟢 Scheffler: 10% (3) → 10% (4) 🟢 Young: 9% (4) → 12% (2) 🟢 DeChambeau: 7% (5) → 11% (3) 🟔 Koepka: 6% (6) → 2% (12) 🟢 Fowler: 4% (7) → 3% (10) 🟢 Schauffele: 4% (8) → 3% (11) 🟔 Aberg: 4% (9) → 8% (5) 🟢 Fitzpatrick: 4% (10) → 4% (8) Also in Actual Top 10 🟔 Hatton: <2% (20+) → 4% (6) 🟢 Fleetwood: 2% (14) → 4% (9) Hit Rates 🟩 Top 5: 4/5 (80%) 🟩 Top 10: 8/10 (80%) 🟩 Top 20: 17/20 (85%) šŸ“Š Spearman ρ: 0.82 (rank accuracy)
PGA OAD Ownership Projections ā›³ļø PGA Championship 1ļøāƒ£ 13.2% Jon Rahm (22% used) 2ļøāƒ£ 10.4% Rory McIlroy (52% used) 3ļøāƒ£ 10.2% Scottie Scheffler (60% used) 4ļøāƒ£ 8.6% Cameron Young (50% used) 5ļøāƒ£ 7.0% Bryson DeChambeau (13% used) 6ļøāƒ£ 5.7% Brooks Koepka (17% used) 7ļøāƒ£ 4.3% Rickie Fowler (14% used) 8ļøāƒ£ 4.3% Xander Schauffele (53% used) 9ļøāƒ£ 4.2% Ludvig Aberg (48% used) šŸ”Ÿ 4.0% Matt Fitzpatrick (52% used) Important to note — while this is 1 of 4 Majors, the purse last year was $19M so just below the 8 signature events which are $20M each. 3.8% Patrick Cantlay (40% used) 3.1% Collin Morikawa (49% used) 2.4% Justin Rose (15% used) 2.2% Tommy Fleetwood (42% used) 1.3% Min Woo Lee (23% used) 1.1% Sam Burns (20% used) 1.1% Nicolai Hojgaard (29% used) 1.1% Chris Gotterup (34% used) 1.0% Russell Henley (59% used) 0.9% J.J. Spaun (15% used)
1
2,015
PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings ā›³ļø PGA Championship Since there is only 1 PGA event in the alst 10 years at Aronimink (2018), I bumped up the SG filters for PGA Champiosnhip cumualtive history as well as Majors history instead. Haven't fully decided on my 3rd, but I do like taking both Ludvig Aberg and Patrick Cantlay here. Probably not worth burning Scottie. I might take a shot on Mi Woo Lee, Nicolai Hojgaard or say fuck it and just take Bryson 🤮
PGA OAD Ownership Projections ā›³ļø PGA Championship 1ļøāƒ£ 13.2% Jon Rahm (22% used) 2ļøāƒ£ 10.4% Rory McIlroy (52% used) 3ļøāƒ£ 10.2% Scottie Scheffler (60% used) 4ļøāƒ£ 8.6% Cameron Young (50% used) 5ļøāƒ£ 7.0% Bryson DeChambeau (13% used) 6ļøāƒ£ 5.7% Brooks Koepka (17% used) 7ļøāƒ£ 4.3% Rickie Fowler (14% used) 8ļøāƒ£ 4.3% Xander Schauffele (53% used) 9ļøāƒ£ 4.2% Ludvig Aberg (48% used) šŸ”Ÿ 4.0% Matt Fitzpatrick (52% used) Important to note — while this is 1 of 4 Majors, the purse last year was $19M so just below the 8 signature events which are $20M each. 3.8% Patrick Cantlay (40% used) 3.1% Collin Morikawa (49% used) 2.4% Justin Rose (15% used) 2.2% Tommy Fleetwood (42% used) 1.3% Min Woo Lee (23% used) 1.1% Sam Burns (20% used) 1.1% Nicolai Hojgaard (29% used) 1.1% Chris Gotterup (34% used) 1.0% Russell Henley (59% used) 0.9% J.J. Spaun (15% used)
1
2
3,710
Rolling with 2 Xander & 1 Hovland
PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings ā›³ļø Truist Championship Still deciding who I want to pull the trigger on. I don't have any Si Woo left, he feels like a good shot for low ownership plays. JT as well, has player well at this course. Hard to trust Fleetwood right now, but he should have a safe floor and good leverage.
2
1,561
PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings ā›³ļø Truist Championship Still deciding who I want to pull the trigger on. I don't have any Si Woo left, he feels like a good shot for low ownership plays. JT as well, has player well at this course. Hard to trust Fleetwood right now, but he should have a safe floor and good leverage.
PGA OAD Ownership Projections ā›³ļø Truist Championship 1ļøāƒ£ 21.1% Rory McIlroy (28% used) 2ļøāƒ£ 12.5% Xander Schauffele (38% used) 3ļøāƒ£ 12.0% Cameron Young (46% used) 4ļøāƒ£ 8.1% Ludvig Aberg (36% used) 5ļøāƒ£ 7.2% Matt Fitzpatrick (48% used) 6ļøāƒ£ 5.7% Adam Scott (7% used) 7ļøāƒ£ 3.2% Sam Burns (17% used) 8ļøāƒ£ 3.1% Si Woo Kim (65% used) 9ļøāƒ£ 3.0% Tommy Fleetwood (39% used) šŸ”Ÿ 2.1% Robert MacIntyre (17% used) 2.0% Min Woo Lee (21% used) 1.9% Patrick Cantlay (39% used) 1.6% Chris Gotterup (33% used) 1.6% Rickie Fowler (12% used) 1.1% Sepp Straka (27% used) 1.0% Viktor Hovland (22% used) 0.8% J.J. Spaun (15% used) 0.8% Hideki Matsuyama (43% used) 0.7% Ben Griffin (18% used) 0.5% Maverick McNealy (40% used)
1
1
3
5,700
PGA OAD Ownership Projections ā›³ļø Truist Championship 1ļøāƒ£ 21.1% Rory McIlroy (28% used) 2ļøāƒ£ 12.5% Xander Schauffele (38% used) 3ļøāƒ£ 12.0% Cameron Young (46% used) 4ļøāƒ£ 8.1% Ludvig Aberg (36% used) 5ļøāƒ£ 7.2% Matt Fitzpatrick (48% used) 6ļøāƒ£ 5.7% Adam Scott (7% used) 7ļøāƒ£ 3.2% Sam Burns (17% used) 8ļøāƒ£ 3.1% Si Woo Kim (65% used) 9ļøāƒ£ 3.0% Tommy Fleetwood (39% used) šŸ”Ÿ 2.1% Robert MacIntyre (17% used) 2.0% Min Woo Lee (21% used) 1.9% Patrick Cantlay (39% used) 1.6% Chris Gotterup (33% used) 1.6% Rickie Fowler (12% used) 1.1% Sepp Straka (27% used) 1.0% Viktor Hovland (22% used) 0.8% J.J. Spaun (15% used) 0.8% Hideki Matsuyama (43% used) 0.7% Ben Griffin (18% used) 0.5% Maverick McNealy (40% used)
1
4
6,385
Cadillac Championship OAD Recap Pat's Pick 1 — Scottie Scheffler ($2.16M - 2nd) Pat's Pick 2 — Russell Henley ($48K - 52nd) Pat's Pick 3 — Collin Morikawa ($42K - 63rd) Shoulda just rode the top 2 model picks...
PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings ā›³ļø Cadillac Championship Bumped the Venue Form Signal all the way down to 0% because Trump National Doral Miami has not been on tour since 2016. Model loves all the chalk options in what's a relatively weak field for a Signature event. Not a bad time to deploy Scottie. Pat's Picks (3 entries) šŸŽÆ Scottie Scheffler šŸŽÆ Collin Morikawa šŸŽÆ Russell Henley
1
1,611
PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings ā›³ļø Cadillac Championship Bumped the Venue Form Signal all the way down to 0% because Trump National Doral Miami has not been on tour since 2016. Model loves all the chalk options in what's a relatively weak field for a Signature event. Not a bad time to deploy Scottie. Pat's Picks (3 entries) šŸŽÆ Scottie Scheffler šŸŽÆ Collin Morikawa šŸŽÆ Russell Henley
PGA OAD Ownership Projections ā›³ļø Cadillac Championship 1ļøāƒ£ 12.2% Cameron Young (29% used) 2ļøāƒ£ 8.1% Chris Gotterup (33% used) 3ļøāƒ£ 8.1% Scottie Scheffler (50% used) 4ļøāƒ£ 7.3% Collin Morikawa (49% used) 5ļøāƒ£ 6.5% Min Woo Lee (17% used) 6ļøāƒ£ 6.3% Sam Burns (17% used) 7ļøāƒ£ 5.8% Jake Knapp (35% used) 8ļøāƒ£ 4.4% Russell Henley (59% used) 9ļøāƒ£ 4.2% Patrick Cantlay (39% used) šŸ”Ÿ 3.5% Tommy Fleetwood (39% used) 3.3% Justin Rose (15% used) 3.2% Adam Scott 3.1% Si Woo Kim (62% used) 3.0% Hideki Matsuyama (43% used) 2.6% Viktor Hovland (22% used) 2.2% Harris English (7% used) 1.9% Maverick McNealy (40% used) 1.6% Jacob Bridgeman (25% used) 1.5% Nicolai Hojgaard (29% used) 1.4% Akshay Bhatia
1
1
2
4,019
PGA OAD Ownership Projections ā›³ļø Cadillac Championship 1ļøāƒ£ 12.2% Cameron Young (29% used) 2ļøāƒ£ 8.1% Chris Gotterup (33% used) 3ļøāƒ£ 8.1% Scottie Scheffler (50% used) 4ļøāƒ£ 7.3% Collin Morikawa (49% used) 5ļøāƒ£ 6.5% Min Woo Lee (17% used) 6ļøāƒ£ 6.3% Sam Burns (17% used) 7ļøāƒ£ 5.8% Jake Knapp (35% used) 8ļøāƒ£ 4.4% Russell Henley (59% used) 9ļøāƒ£ 4.2% Patrick Cantlay (39% used) šŸ”Ÿ 3.5% Tommy Fleetwood (39% used) 3.3% Justin Rose (15% used) 3.2% Adam Scott 3.1% Si Woo Kim (62% used) 3.0% Hideki Matsuyama (43% used) 2.6% Viktor Hovland (22% used) 2.2% Harris English (7% used) 1.9% Maverick McNealy (40% used) 1.6% Jacob Bridgeman (25% used) 1.5% Nicolai Hojgaard (29% used) 1.4% Akshay Bhatia
1
1
4
5,084
Ownership Projections Recap ā›³ļø RBC Heritage My Top 10 vs Actual 🟢 Fitzpatrick: 10% (1) → 10% (3) 🟢 Henley: 10% (2) → 11% (1) 🟢 Schauffele: 10% (3) → 7% (5) 🟢 Scheffler: 8% (4) → 10% (4) 🟔 Young: 8% (5) → 3% (9) 🟢 Spieth: 7% (6) → 7% (6) 🟔 Cantlay: 7% (7) → 11% (2) 🟢 Fleetwood: 4% (8) → 4% (7) 🟢 Morikawa: 3% (9) → 2% (18) 🟢 Aberg: 3% (10) → 3% (8) Also in Actual Top 10 🟢 Bridgeman: 1% (19) → 3% (10) Hit Rates 🟩 Top 5: 4/5 (80%) 🟩 Top 10: 9/10 (90%) 🟩 Top 20: 19/20 (95%) šŸ“Š Spearman ρ: 0.72 (rank accuracy)
PGA OAD Ownership Projections ā›³ļø RBC Heritage 1ļøāƒ£ 10.2% Matt Fitzpatrick (38% used) 2ļøāƒ£ 10.1% Russell Henley (47% used) 3ļøāƒ£ 10.0% Xander Schauffele (30% used) 4ļøāƒ£ 8.4% Scottie Scheffler (40% used) 5ļøāƒ£ 8.0% Cameron Young (26% used) 6ļøāƒ£ 7.4% Jordan Spieth (22% used) 7ļøāƒ£ 6.9% Patrick Cantlay (29% used) 8ļøāƒ£ 3.9% Tommy Fleetwood (36% used) 9ļøāƒ£ 3.5% Collin Morikawa (48% used) šŸ”Ÿ 3.3% Ludvig Aberg (33% used) 3.3% Sam Burns (15% used) 2.2% Robert MacIntyre (16% used) 2.1% Viktor Hovland (20% used) 2.1% Jake Knapp (33% used) 2.0% Sepp Straka (23% used) 2.0% Si Woo Kim (60% used) 1.6% Justin Thomas (8% used) 1.0% Akshay Bhatia 1.0% Jacob Bridgeman (23% used) 1.0% Maverick McNealy (37% used)
1
1,767
PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings ā›³ļø RBC Heritage Important to note that Collin is still battling his back injury. But he seemed to get through the mental block from round 1 at the Masters finishing with 3 great rounds. I will be taking a shot on him as I need to pick up ground on the field. Similar profile to Rory with injury concerns last week, he will be lower owned and it's a great opportunity to use a top player in a high leverage spot. With a $20 Million dollar purse I want to target lower owned studs in this one. Pat's Picks (3 entries) šŸŽÆ Collin Morikawa šŸŽÆ Ludvig Aberg šŸŽÆ Tommy Fleetwood
PGA OAD Ownership Projections ā›³ļø RBC Heritage 1ļøāƒ£ 10.2% Matt Fitzpatrick (38% used) 2ļøāƒ£ 10.1% Russell Henley (47% used) 3ļøāƒ£ 10.0% Xander Schauffele (30% used) 4ļøāƒ£ 8.4% Scottie Scheffler (40% used) 5ļøāƒ£ 8.0% Cameron Young (26% used) 6ļøāƒ£ 7.4% Jordan Spieth (22% used) 7ļøāƒ£ 6.9% Patrick Cantlay (29% used) 8ļøāƒ£ 3.9% Tommy Fleetwood (36% used) 9ļøāƒ£ 3.5% Collin Morikawa (48% used) šŸ”Ÿ 3.3% Ludvig Aberg (33% used) 3.3% Sam Burns (15% used) 2.2% Robert MacIntyre (16% used) 2.1% Viktor Hovland (20% used) 2.1% Jake Knapp (33% used) 2.0% Sepp Straka (23% used) 2.0% Si Woo Kim (60% used) 1.6% Justin Thomas (8% used) 1.0% Akshay Bhatia 1.0% Jacob Bridgeman (23% used) 1.0% Maverick McNealy (37% used)
1
1
1,780
PGA OAD Ownership Projections ā›³ļø RBC Heritage 1ļøāƒ£ 10.2% Matt Fitzpatrick (38% used) 2ļøāƒ£ 10.1% Russell Henley (47% used) 3ļøāƒ£ 10.0% Xander Schauffele (30% used) 4ļøāƒ£ 8.4% Scottie Scheffler (40% used) 5ļøāƒ£ 8.0% Cameron Young (26% used) 6ļøāƒ£ 7.4% Jordan Spieth (22% used) 7ļøāƒ£ 6.9% Patrick Cantlay (29% used) 8ļøāƒ£ 3.9% Tommy Fleetwood (36% used) 9ļøāƒ£ 3.5% Collin Morikawa (48% used) šŸ”Ÿ 3.3% Ludvig Aberg (33% used) 3.3% Sam Burns (15% used) 2.2% Robert MacIntyre (16% used) 2.1% Viktor Hovland (20% used) 2.1% Jake Knapp (33% used) 2.0% Sepp Straka (23% used) 2.0% Si Woo Kim (60% used) 1.6% Justin Thomas (8% used) 1.0% Akshay Bhatia 1.0% Jacob Bridgeman (23% used) 1.0% Maverick McNealy (37% used)
1
5
5,156
Masters Tournament OAD Recap Pat's Pick 1 — Scottie Scheffler ($2.43M - 2nd) Pat's Pick 2 — Xander Schauffele ($630K - T10) Pat's Pick 3 — Matt Fitzpatrick ($315K - 20th)
PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings ā›³ļø The Masters (4/9/26) 2 tweaks for this week that I am testing. If I get them working trustworthy enough I will update. 🧊 Clutch Factor (NEW) — How each player's weekend performance compares to their own baseline, weighted toward major championship Saturdays/Sundays and top-10 contention rounds. šŸ¦… Par 5 Scoring (NEW) — Augusta's four reachable par 5s separate contenders from the field. This metric is a blend of 2026 Par 5 scoring with Masters Par 5 history. The more I think about it, I feel like Scottie might be 10%+ owned here. I really want to pick him, and since I have 3 entries I think I am going to. But the other two picks both better value imo. Pat's Picks šŸŽÆ Xander Schauffele šŸŽÆ Matt Fitzpatrick šŸŽÆ Scottie Scheffler
1
1,081
Ownership Projections Recap ā›³ļø Masters Tournament My Top 20 vs Actual 🟢 Rahm: 19% (1) → 22% (1) 🟢 DeChambeau: 11% (2) → 13% (3) 🟔 Schauffele: 9% (3) → 14% (2) 🟢 Scheffler: 9% (4) → 7% (6) 🟢 Young: 7% (5) → 6% (7) 🟢 Fitzpatrick: 6% (6) → 3% (8) 🟢 Fleetwood: 6% (7) → 3% (9) 🟔 Aberg: 6% (8) → 9% (5) 🟢 McIlroy: 5% (9) → 3% (10) šŸ”“ Reed: 4% (10) → 9% (4) Hit Rates 🟨 Top 5: 3/5 (60%) 🟩 Top 10: 10/10 (100%) 🟩 Top 20: 17/20 (85%) šŸ“Š Spearman ρ: 0.89 (rank accuracy)
PGA OAD Ownership Projections ā›³ļø Masters Tournament 1ļøāƒ£ 18.6% Jon Rahm (0% used) 2ļøāƒ£ 11.4% Bryson DeChambeau (0% used) 3ļøāƒ£ 9.3% Xander Schauffele (17% used) 4ļøāƒ£ 8.8% Scottie Scheffler (33% used) 5ļøāƒ£ 7.3% Cameron Young (21% used) 6ļøāƒ£ 5.8% Matt Fitzpatrick (35% used) 7ļøāƒ£ 5.8% Tommy Fleetwood (33% used) 8ļøāƒ£ 5.7% Ludvig Aberg (25% used) 9ļøāƒ£ 4.9% Rory McIlroy (25% used) šŸ”Ÿ 4.4% Patrick Reed (0% used) Welp here we are! MASSIVE Prize Pool up for grabs in OAD. I feel generally confident in these ownership numbers, but bear in mind this is a very hard thing to project for with top LIV players only getting to play in the 4 Majors. Plus McIlroy and Morikawa playing through injuries. I don't plan to be too contrarian here, big dogs win the Masters. 2.5% Min Woo Lee (16% used) 1.8% Robert MacIntyre (15% used) 0.7% Justin Rose (14% used) 0.6% Hideki Matsuyama (42% used) 0.5% Russell Henley (47% used) 0.5% Akshay Bhatia (1% used) 0.4% Si Woo Kim (60% used) 0.4% Jake Knapp (33% used) 0.4% Jacob Bridgeman (22% used) 0.4% Collin Morikawa (48% used)
1,710
PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings ā›³ļø The Masters (4/9/26) 2 tweaks for this week that I am testing. If I get them working trustworthy enough I will update. 🧊 Clutch Factor (NEW) — How each player's weekend performance compares to their own baseline, weighted toward major championship Saturdays/Sundays and top-10 contention rounds. šŸ¦… Par 5 Scoring (NEW) — Augusta's four reachable par 5s separate contenders from the field. This metric is a blend of 2026 Par 5 scoring with Masters Par 5 history. The more I think about it, I feel like Scottie might be 10%+ owned here. I really want to pick him, and since I have 3 entries I think I am going to. But the other two picks both better value imo. Pat's Picks šŸŽÆ Xander Schauffele šŸŽÆ Matt Fitzpatrick šŸŽÆ Scottie Scheffler
PGA OAD Ownership Projections ā›³ļø Masters Tournament 1ļøāƒ£ 18.6% Jon Rahm (0% used) 2ļøāƒ£ 11.4% Bryson DeChambeau (0% used) 3ļøāƒ£ 9.3% Xander Schauffele (17% used) 4ļøāƒ£ 8.8% Scottie Scheffler (33% used) 5ļøāƒ£ 7.3% Cameron Young (21% used) 6ļøāƒ£ 5.8% Matt Fitzpatrick (35% used) 7ļøāƒ£ 5.8% Tommy Fleetwood (33% used) 8ļøāƒ£ 5.7% Ludvig Aberg (25% used) 9ļøāƒ£ 4.9% Rory McIlroy (25% used) šŸ”Ÿ 4.4% Patrick Reed (0% used) Welp here we are! MASSIVE Prize Pool up for grabs in OAD. I feel generally confident in these ownership numbers, but bear in mind this is a very hard thing to project for with top LIV players only getting to play in the 4 Majors. Plus McIlroy and Morikawa playing through injuries. I don't plan to be too contrarian here, big dogs win the Masters. 2.5% Min Woo Lee (16% used) 1.8% Robert MacIntyre (15% used) 0.7% Justin Rose (14% used) 0.6% Hideki Matsuyama (42% used) 0.5% Russell Henley (47% used) 0.5% Akshay Bhatia (1% used) 0.4% Si Woo Kim (60% used) 0.4% Jake Knapp (33% used) 0.4% Jacob Bridgeman (22% used) 0.4% Collin Morikawa (48% used)
1
1
2,593
Valero Texas Open OAD Recap Pat's Pick 1 — Ryo Hisatsune ($296K - T8) Pat's Pick 2 — S. Yellamaraju ($159K - T14) Pat's Pick 3 — Hideki Matsuyama ($99K - T21)
PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings ā›³ļø Valero Texas Open I made a slight tweak this week, as there are so many players in the field with mostly DNP experience at TPC San Antonio. Instead of counting course form the full weight, I am now power scaling its contribution based on number of appearances. Best example is Ryo Hisatsune. Only ever played here once, made the cut, but had an awful final round which killed his SG Total. We want to weight this much smaller than say Matsuyama who has played in 4/5. Pat's Picks šŸŽÆ Hideki Matsuyama šŸŽÆ Ryo Hisatune šŸŽÆ Sudarshan Yellamar
932
PGA OAD Ownership Projections ā›³ļø Masters Tournament 1ļøāƒ£ 18.6% Jon Rahm (0% used) 2ļøāƒ£ 11.4% Bryson DeChambeau (0% used) 3ļøāƒ£ 9.3% Xander Schauffele (17% used) 4ļøāƒ£ 8.8% Scottie Scheffler (33% used) 5ļøāƒ£ 7.3% Cameron Young (21% used) 6ļøāƒ£ 5.8% Matt Fitzpatrick (35% used) 7ļøāƒ£ 5.8% Tommy Fleetwood (33% used) 8ļøāƒ£ 5.7% Ludvig Aberg (25% used) 9ļøāƒ£ 4.9% Rory McIlroy (25% used) šŸ”Ÿ 4.4% Patrick Reed (0% used) Welp here we are! MASSIVE Prize Pool up for grabs in OAD. I feel generally confident in these ownership numbers, but bear in mind this is a very hard thing to project for with top LIV players only getting to play in the 4 Majors. Plus McIlroy and Morikawa playing through injuries. I don't plan to be too contrarian here, big dogs win the Masters. 2.5% Min Woo Lee (16% used) 1.8% Robert MacIntyre (15% used) 0.7% Justin Rose (14% used) 0.6% Hideki Matsuyama (42% used) 0.5% Russell Henley (47% used) 0.5% Akshay Bhatia (1% used) 0.4% Si Woo Kim (60% used) 0.4% Jake Knapp (33% used) 0.4% Jacob Bridgeman (22% used) 0.4% Collin Morikawa (48% used)
1
3
5,487
Ownership Projections Recap ā›³ļø Valero Texas Open My Top 10 vs Actual 🟢 Spieth: 16% (1) → 14% (2) šŸ”“ Aberg: 14% (2) → 3% (14) 🟢 Straka: 11% (3) → 15% (1) 🟢 MacIntyre: 7% (4) → 8% (3) 🟢 Henley: 6% (5) → 7% (4) 🟢 Fowler: 5% (6) → 4% (9) 🟢 Thorbjornsen: 4% (7) → 4% (10) 🟔 McNealy: 4% (8) → 6% (5) 🟢 Fleetwood: 3% (9) → 3% (15) 🟢 Matsuyama: 3% (10) → 2% (16) Also in Actual Top 10 🟢 Hisatsune: 3% (12) → 4% (6) 🟔 Kim: 1% (17) → 4% (7) 🟔 McCarthy: 2% (16) → 4% (8) Hit Rates 🟩 Top 5: 4/5 (80%) 🟨 Top 10: 7/10 (70%) 🟩 Top 20: 18/20 (90%) šŸ“Š Spearman ρ: 0.57 (rank accuracy) Just a massive miss on Aberg, but everything else checks out. Folks saw what he did at the Players and really must be saving to deploy at the Masters next week.
Missed the Morikawa WD šŸ‘‡ Updated numbers 1ļøāƒ£ 16.5% Jordan Spieth (7% used) 2ļøāƒ£ 14.2% Ludvig Aberg (22% used) 3ļøāƒ£ 10.6% Sepp Straka (9% used) 4ļøāƒ£ 7.4% Robert MacIntyre (7% used) 5ļøāƒ£ 6.0% Russell Henley (40% used) 6ļøāƒ£ 4.8% Rickie Fowler (8% used) 7ļøāƒ£ 3.8% Michael Thorbjornsen (13% used) 8ļøāƒ£ 3.6% Maverick McNealy (31% used) 9ļøāƒ£ 3.4% Tommy Fleetwood (30% used) šŸ”Ÿ 3.3% Hideki Matsuyama (40% used) 3.2% Keith Mitchell 2.8% Ryo Hisatsune (10% used) 2.4% Alex Noren 1.8% Sudarshan Yellamaraju 1.6% Daniel Berger (7% used) 1.5% Denny McCarthy 1.2% Si Woo Kim (56% used) 1.0% J.J. Spaun (13% used) 0.5% Thorbjorn Olesen 0.5% Marco Penge
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1,714
PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings ā›³ļø Valero Texas Open I made a slight tweak this week, as there are so many players in the field with mostly DNP experience at TPC San Antonio. Instead of counting course form the full weight, I am now power scaling its contribution based on number of appearances. Best example is Ryo Hisatsune. Only ever played here once, made the cut, but had an awful final round which killed his SG Total. We want to weight this much smaller than say Matsuyama who has played in 4/5. Pat's Picks šŸŽÆ Hideki Matsuyama šŸŽÆ Ryo Hisatune šŸŽÆ Sudarshan Yellamar
Missed the Morikawa WD šŸ‘‡ Updated numbers 1ļøāƒ£ 16.5% Jordan Spieth (7% used) 2ļøāƒ£ 14.2% Ludvig Aberg (22% used) 3ļøāƒ£ 10.6% Sepp Straka (9% used) 4ļøāƒ£ 7.4% Robert MacIntyre (7% used) 5ļøāƒ£ 6.0% Russell Henley (40% used) 6ļøāƒ£ 4.8% Rickie Fowler (8% used) 7ļøāƒ£ 3.8% Michael Thorbjornsen (13% used) 8ļøāƒ£ 3.6% Maverick McNealy (31% used) 9ļøāƒ£ 3.4% Tommy Fleetwood (30% used) šŸ”Ÿ 3.3% Hideki Matsuyama (40% used) 3.2% Keith Mitchell 2.8% Ryo Hisatsune (10% used) 2.4% Alex Noren 1.8% Sudarshan Yellamaraju 1.6% Daniel Berger (7% used) 1.5% Denny McCarthy 1.2% Si Woo Kim (56% used) 1.0% J.J. Spaun (13% used) 0.5% Thorbjorn Olesen 0.5% Marco Penge
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