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PGA OAD Ownership Projections
ā³ļø PGA Championship
1ļøā£ 13.2% Jon Rahm (22% used)
2ļøā£ 10.4% Rory McIlroy (52% used)
3ļøā£ 10.2% Scottie Scheffler (60% used)
4ļøā£ 8.6% Cameron Young (50% used)
5ļøā£ 7.0% Bryson DeChambeau (13% used)
6ļøā£ 5.7% Brooks Koepka (17% used)
7ļøā£ 4.3% Rickie Fowler (14% used)
8ļøā£ 4.3% Xander Schauffele (53% used)
9ļøā£ 4.2% Ludvig Aberg (48% used)
š 4.0% Matt Fitzpatrick (52% used)
Important to note ā while this is 1 of 4 Majors, the purse last year was $19M so just below the 8 signature events which are $20M each.
3.8% Patrick Cantlay (40% used)
3.1% Collin Morikawa (49% used)
2.4% Justin Rose (15% used)
2.2% Tommy Fleetwood (42% used)
1.3% Min Woo Lee (23% used)
1.1% Sam Burns (20% used)
1.1% Nicolai Hojgaard (29% used)
1.1% Chris Gotterup (34% used)
1.0% Russell Henley (59% used)
0.9% J.J. Spaun (15% used)
Pat retweeted
Cardinals rookie running back Jeremiyah Love is dealing with a high ankle sprain, per sources. It makes it unlikely that Love plays again this preseason, with the team hoping he can return for the Sept. 13 regular-season opener vs the Chargers.
Ownership Projections Recap
ā³ļø PGA Championship
My Top 10 vs Actual
š¢ Rahm: 13% (1) ā 14% (1)
š“ McIlroy: 10% (2) ā 4% (7)
š¢ Scheffler: 10% (3) ā 10% (4)
š¢ Young: 9% (4) ā 12% (2)
š¢ DeChambeau: 7% (5) ā 11% (3)
š” Koepka: 6% (6) ā 2% (12)
š¢ Fowler: 4% (7) ā 3% (10)
š¢ Schauffele: 4% (8) ā 3% (11)
š” Aberg: 4% (9) ā 8% (5)
š¢ Fitzpatrick: 4% (10) ā 4% (8)
Also in Actual Top 10
š” Hatton: <2% (20+) ā 4% (6)
š¢ Fleetwood: 2% (14) ā 4% (9)
Hit Rates
š© Top 5: 4/5 (80%)
š© Top 10: 8/10 (80%)
š© Top 20: 17/20 (85%)
š Spearman Ļ: 0.82 (rank accuracy)
PGA OAD Ownership Projections
ā³ļø PGA Championship
1ļøā£ 13.2% Jon Rahm (22% used)
2ļøā£ 10.4% Rory McIlroy (52% used)
3ļøā£ 10.2% Scottie Scheffler (60% used)
4ļøā£ 8.6% Cameron Young (50% used)
5ļøā£ 7.0% Bryson DeChambeau (13% used)
6ļøā£ 5.7% Brooks Koepka (17% used)
7ļøā£ 4.3% Rickie Fowler (14% used)
8ļøā£ 4.3% Xander Schauffele (53% used)
9ļøā£ 4.2% Ludvig Aberg (48% used)
š 4.0% Matt Fitzpatrick (52% used)
Important to note ā while this is 1 of 4 Majors, the purse last year was $19M so just below the 8 signature events which are $20M each.
3.8% Patrick Cantlay (40% used)
3.1% Collin Morikawa (49% used)
2.4% Justin Rose (15% used)
2.2% Tommy Fleetwood (42% used)
1.3% Min Woo Lee (23% used)
1.1% Sam Burns (20% used)
1.1% Nicolai Hojgaard (29% used)
1.1% Chris Gotterup (34% used)
1.0% Russell Henley (59% used)
0.9% J.J. Spaun (15% used)
PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings
ā³ļø PGA Championship
Since there is only 1 PGA event in the alst 10 years at Aronimink (2018), I bumped up the SG filters for PGA Champiosnhip cumualtive history as well as Majors history instead.
Haven't fully decided on my 3rd, but I do like taking both Ludvig Aberg and Patrick Cantlay here.
Probably not worth burning Scottie. I might take a shot on Mi Woo Lee, Nicolai Hojgaard or say fuck it and just take Bryson š¤®
PGA OAD Ownership Projections
ā³ļø PGA Championship
1ļøā£ 13.2% Jon Rahm (22% used)
2ļøā£ 10.4% Rory McIlroy (52% used)
3ļøā£ 10.2% Scottie Scheffler (60% used)
4ļøā£ 8.6% Cameron Young (50% used)
5ļøā£ 7.0% Bryson DeChambeau (13% used)
6ļøā£ 5.7% Brooks Koepka (17% used)
7ļøā£ 4.3% Rickie Fowler (14% used)
8ļøā£ 4.3% Xander Schauffele (53% used)
9ļøā£ 4.2% Ludvig Aberg (48% used)
š 4.0% Matt Fitzpatrick (52% used)
Important to note ā while this is 1 of 4 Majors, the purse last year was $19M so just below the 8 signature events which are $20M each.
3.8% Patrick Cantlay (40% used)
3.1% Collin Morikawa (49% used)
2.4% Justin Rose (15% used)
2.2% Tommy Fleetwood (42% used)
1.3% Min Woo Lee (23% used)
1.1% Sam Burns (20% used)
1.1% Nicolai Hojgaard (29% used)
1.1% Chris Gotterup (34% used)
1.0% Russell Henley (59% used)
0.9% J.J. Spaun (15% used)
Rolling with 2 Xander & 1 Hovland
PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings
ā³ļø Truist Championship
Still deciding who I want to pull the trigger on.
I don't have any Si Woo left, he feels like a good shot for low ownership plays.
JT as well, has player well at this course.
Hard to trust Fleetwood right now, but he should have a safe floor and good leverage.
PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings
ā³ļø Truist Championship
Still deciding who I want to pull the trigger on.
I don't have any Si Woo left, he feels like a good shot for low ownership plays.
JT as well, has player well at this course.
Hard to trust Fleetwood right now, but he should have a safe floor and good leverage.
PGA OAD Ownership Projections
ā³ļø Truist Championship
1ļøā£ 21.1% Rory McIlroy (28% used)
2ļøā£ 12.5% Xander Schauffele (38% used)
3ļøā£ 12.0% Cameron Young (46% used)
4ļøā£ 8.1% Ludvig Aberg (36% used)
5ļøā£ 7.2% Matt Fitzpatrick (48% used)
6ļøā£ 5.7% Adam Scott (7% used)
7ļøā£ 3.2% Sam Burns (17% used)
8ļøā£ 3.1% Si Woo Kim (65% used)
9ļøā£ 3.0% Tommy Fleetwood (39% used)
š 2.1% Robert MacIntyre (17% used)
2.0% Min Woo Lee (21% used)
1.9% Patrick Cantlay (39% used)
1.6% Chris Gotterup (33% used)
1.6% Rickie Fowler (12% used)
1.1% Sepp Straka (27% used)
1.0% Viktor Hovland (22% used)
0.8% J.J. Spaun (15% used)
0.8% Hideki Matsuyama (43% used)
0.7% Ben Griffin (18% used)
0.5% Maverick McNealy (40% used)
PGA OAD Ownership Projections
ā³ļø Truist Championship
1ļøā£ 21.1% Rory McIlroy (28% used)
2ļøā£ 12.5% Xander Schauffele (38% used)
3ļøā£ 12.0% Cameron Young (46% used)
4ļøā£ 8.1% Ludvig Aberg (36% used)
5ļøā£ 7.2% Matt Fitzpatrick (48% used)
6ļøā£ 5.7% Adam Scott (7% used)
7ļøā£ 3.2% Sam Burns (17% used)
8ļøā£ 3.1% Si Woo Kim (65% used)
9ļøā£ 3.0% Tommy Fleetwood (39% used)
š 2.1% Robert MacIntyre (17% used)
2.0% Min Woo Lee (21% used)
1.9% Patrick Cantlay (39% used)
1.6% Chris Gotterup (33% used)
1.6% Rickie Fowler (12% used)
1.1% Sepp Straka (27% used)
1.0% Viktor Hovland (22% used)
0.8% J.J. Spaun (15% used)
0.8% Hideki Matsuyama (43% used)
0.7% Ben Griffin (18% used)
0.5% Maverick McNealy (40% used)
Cadillac Championship OAD Recap
Pat's Pick 1 ā Scottie Scheffler ($2.16M - 2nd)
Pat's Pick 2 ā Russell Henley ($48K - 52nd)
Pat's Pick 3 ā Collin Morikawa ($42K - 63rd)
Shoulda just rode the top 2 model picks...
PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings
ā³ļø Cadillac Championship
Bumped the Venue Form Signal all the way down to 0% because Trump National Doral Miami has not been on tour since 2016.
Model loves all the chalk options in what's a relatively weak field for a Signature event. Not a bad time to deploy Scottie.
Pat's Picks (3 entries)
šÆ Scottie Scheffler
šÆ Collin Morikawa
šÆ Russell Henley
PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings
ā³ļø Cadillac Championship
Bumped the Venue Form Signal all the way down to 0% because Trump National Doral Miami has not been on tour since 2016.
Model loves all the chalk options in what's a relatively weak field for a Signature event. Not a bad time to deploy Scottie.
Pat's Picks (3 entries)
šÆ Scottie Scheffler
šÆ Collin Morikawa
šÆ Russell Henley
PGA OAD Ownership Projections
ā³ļø Cadillac Championship
1ļøā£ 12.2% Cameron Young (29% used)
2ļøā£ 8.1% Chris Gotterup (33% used)
3ļøā£ 8.1% Scottie Scheffler (50% used)
4ļøā£ 7.3% Collin Morikawa (49% used)
5ļøā£ 6.5% Min Woo Lee (17% used)
6ļøā£ 6.3% Sam Burns (17% used)
7ļøā£ 5.8% Jake Knapp (35% used)
8ļøā£ 4.4% Russell Henley (59% used)
9ļøā£ 4.2% Patrick Cantlay (39% used)
š 3.5% Tommy Fleetwood (39% used)
3.3% Justin Rose (15% used)
3.2% Adam Scott
3.1% Si Woo Kim (62% used)
3.0% Hideki Matsuyama (43% used)
2.6% Viktor Hovland (22% used)
2.2% Harris English (7% used)
1.9% Maverick McNealy (40% used)
1.6% Jacob Bridgeman (25% used)
1.5% Nicolai Hojgaard (29% used)
1.4% Akshay Bhatia
PGA OAD Ownership Projections
ā³ļø Cadillac Championship
1ļøā£ 12.2% Cameron Young (29% used)
2ļøā£ 8.1% Chris Gotterup (33% used)
3ļøā£ 8.1% Scottie Scheffler (50% used)
4ļøā£ 7.3% Collin Morikawa (49% used)
5ļøā£ 6.5% Min Woo Lee (17% used)
6ļøā£ 6.3% Sam Burns (17% used)
7ļøā£ 5.8% Jake Knapp (35% used)
8ļøā£ 4.4% Russell Henley (59% used)
9ļøā£ 4.2% Patrick Cantlay (39% used)
š 3.5% Tommy Fleetwood (39% used)
3.3% Justin Rose (15% used)
3.2% Adam Scott
3.1% Si Woo Kim (62% used)
3.0% Hideki Matsuyama (43% used)
2.6% Viktor Hovland (22% used)
2.2% Harris English (7% used)
1.9% Maverick McNealy (40% used)
1.6% Jacob Bridgeman (25% used)
1.5% Nicolai Hojgaard (29% used)
1.4% Akshay Bhatia
Ownership Projections Recap
ā³ļø RBC Heritage
My Top 10 vs Actual
š¢ Fitzpatrick: 10% (1) ā 10% (3)
š¢ Henley: 10% (2) ā 11% (1)
š¢ Schauffele: 10% (3) ā 7% (5)
š¢ Scheffler: 8% (4) ā 10% (4)
š” Young: 8% (5) ā 3% (9)
š¢ Spieth: 7% (6) ā 7% (6)
š” Cantlay: 7% (7) ā 11% (2)
š¢ Fleetwood: 4% (8) ā 4% (7)
š¢ Morikawa: 3% (9) ā 2% (18)
š¢ Aberg: 3% (10) ā 3% (8)
Also in Actual Top 10
š¢ Bridgeman: 1% (19) ā 3% (10)
Hit Rates
š© Top 5: 4/5 (80%)
š© Top 10: 9/10 (90%)
š© Top 20: 19/20 (95%)
š Spearman Ļ: 0.72 (rank accuracy)
PGA OAD Ownership Projections
ā³ļø RBC Heritage
1ļøā£ 10.2% Matt Fitzpatrick (38% used)
2ļøā£ 10.1% Russell Henley (47% used)
3ļøā£ 10.0% Xander Schauffele (30% used)
4ļøā£ 8.4% Scottie Scheffler (40% used)
5ļøā£ 8.0% Cameron Young (26% used)
6ļøā£ 7.4% Jordan Spieth (22% used)
7ļøā£ 6.9% Patrick Cantlay (29% used)
8ļøā£ 3.9% Tommy Fleetwood (36% used)
9ļøā£ 3.5% Collin Morikawa (48% used)
š 3.3% Ludvig Aberg (33% used)
3.3% Sam Burns (15% used)
2.2% Robert MacIntyre (16% used)
2.1% Viktor Hovland (20% used)
2.1% Jake Knapp (33% used)
2.0% Sepp Straka (23% used)
2.0% Si Woo Kim (60% used)
1.6% Justin Thomas (8% used)
1.0% Akshay Bhatia
1.0% Jacob Bridgeman (23% used)
1.0% Maverick McNealy (37% used)
PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings
ā³ļø RBC Heritage
Important to note that Collin is still battling his back injury. But he seemed to get through the mental block from round 1 at the Masters finishing with 3 great rounds.
I will be taking a shot on him as I need to pick up ground on the field.
Similar profile to Rory with injury concerns last week, he will be lower owned and it's a great opportunity to use a top player in a high leverage spot.
With a $20 Million dollar purse I want to target lower owned studs in this one.
Pat's Picks (3 entries)
šÆ Collin Morikawa
šÆ Ludvig Aberg
šÆ Tommy Fleetwood
PGA OAD Ownership Projections
ā³ļø RBC Heritage
1ļøā£ 10.2% Matt Fitzpatrick (38% used)
2ļøā£ 10.1% Russell Henley (47% used)
3ļøā£ 10.0% Xander Schauffele (30% used)
4ļøā£ 8.4% Scottie Scheffler (40% used)
5ļøā£ 8.0% Cameron Young (26% used)
6ļøā£ 7.4% Jordan Spieth (22% used)
7ļøā£ 6.9% Patrick Cantlay (29% used)
8ļøā£ 3.9% Tommy Fleetwood (36% used)
9ļøā£ 3.5% Collin Morikawa (48% used)
š 3.3% Ludvig Aberg (33% used)
3.3% Sam Burns (15% used)
2.2% Robert MacIntyre (16% used)
2.1% Viktor Hovland (20% used)
2.1% Jake Knapp (33% used)
2.0% Sepp Straka (23% used)
2.0% Si Woo Kim (60% used)
1.6% Justin Thomas (8% used)
1.0% Akshay Bhatia
1.0% Jacob Bridgeman (23% used)
1.0% Maverick McNealy (37% used)
PGA OAD Ownership Projections
ā³ļø RBC Heritage
1ļøā£ 10.2% Matt Fitzpatrick (38% used)
2ļøā£ 10.1% Russell Henley (47% used)
3ļøā£ 10.0% Xander Schauffele (30% used)
4ļøā£ 8.4% Scottie Scheffler (40% used)
5ļøā£ 8.0% Cameron Young (26% used)
6ļøā£ 7.4% Jordan Spieth (22% used)
7ļøā£ 6.9% Patrick Cantlay (29% used)
8ļøā£ 3.9% Tommy Fleetwood (36% used)
9ļøā£ 3.5% Collin Morikawa (48% used)
š 3.3% Ludvig Aberg (33% used)
3.3% Sam Burns (15% used)
2.2% Robert MacIntyre (16% used)
2.1% Viktor Hovland (20% used)
2.1% Jake Knapp (33% used)
2.0% Sepp Straka (23% used)
2.0% Si Woo Kim (60% used)
1.6% Justin Thomas (8% used)
1.0% Akshay Bhatia
1.0% Jacob Bridgeman (23% used)
1.0% Maverick McNealy (37% used)
Masters Tournament OAD Recap
Pat's Pick 1 ā Scottie Scheffler ($2.43M - 2nd)
Pat's Pick 2 ā Xander Schauffele ($630K - T10)
Pat's Pick 3 ā Matt Fitzpatrick ($315K - 20th)
PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings
ā³ļø The Masters (4/9/26)
2 tweaks for this week that I am testing. If I get them working trustworthy enough I will update.
š§ Clutch Factor (NEW) ā How each player's weekend performance compares to their own baseline, weighted toward major championship Saturdays/Sundays and top-10 contention rounds.
š¦
Par 5 Scoring (NEW) ā Augusta's four reachable par 5s separate contenders from the field. This metric is a blend of 2026 Par 5 scoring with Masters Par 5 history.
The more I think about it, I feel like Scottie might be 10%+ owned here. I really want to pick him, and since I have 3 entries I think I am going to. But the other two picks both better value imo.
Pat's Picks
šÆ Xander Schauffele
šÆ Matt Fitzpatrick
šÆ Scottie Scheffler
Ownership Projections Recap
ā³ļø Masters Tournament
My Top 20 vs Actual
š¢ Rahm: 19% (1) ā 22% (1)
š¢ DeChambeau: 11% (2) ā 13% (3)
š” Schauffele: 9% (3) ā 14% (2)
š¢ Scheffler: 9% (4) ā 7% (6)
š¢ Young: 7% (5) ā 6% (7)
š¢ Fitzpatrick: 6% (6) ā 3% (8)
š¢ Fleetwood: 6% (7) ā 3% (9)
š” Aberg: 6% (8) ā 9% (5)
š¢ McIlroy: 5% (9) ā 3% (10)
š“ Reed: 4% (10) ā 9% (4)
Hit Rates
šØ Top 5: 3/5 (60%)
š© Top 10: 10/10 (100%)
š© Top 20: 17/20 (85%)
š Spearman Ļ: 0.89 (rank accuracy)
PGA OAD Ownership Projections
ā³ļø Masters Tournament
1ļøā£ 18.6% Jon Rahm (0% used)
2ļøā£ 11.4% Bryson DeChambeau (0% used)
3ļøā£ 9.3% Xander Schauffele (17% used)
4ļøā£ 8.8% Scottie Scheffler (33% used)
5ļøā£ 7.3% Cameron Young (21% used)
6ļøā£ 5.8% Matt Fitzpatrick (35% used)
7ļøā£ 5.8% Tommy Fleetwood (33% used)
8ļøā£ 5.7% Ludvig Aberg (25% used)
9ļøā£ 4.9% Rory McIlroy (25% used)
š 4.4% Patrick Reed (0% used)
Welp here we are! MASSIVE Prize Pool up for grabs in OAD.
I feel generally confident in these ownership numbers, but bear in mind this is a very hard thing to project for with top LIV players only getting to play in the 4 Majors. Plus McIlroy and Morikawa playing through injuries.
I don't plan to be too contrarian here, big dogs win the Masters.
2.5% Min Woo Lee (16% used)
1.8% Robert MacIntyre (15% used)
0.7% Justin Rose (14% used)
0.6% Hideki Matsuyama (42% used)
0.5% Russell Henley (47% used)
0.5% Akshay Bhatia (1% used)
0.4% Si Woo Kim (60% used)
0.4% Jake Knapp (33% used)
0.4% Jacob Bridgeman (22% used)
0.4% Collin Morikawa (48% used)
PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings
ā³ļø The Masters (4/9/26)
2 tweaks for this week that I am testing. If I get them working trustworthy enough I will update.
š§ Clutch Factor (NEW) ā How each player's weekend performance compares to their own baseline, weighted toward major championship Saturdays/Sundays and top-10 contention rounds.
š¦
Par 5 Scoring (NEW) ā Augusta's four reachable par 5s separate contenders from the field. This metric is a blend of 2026 Par 5 scoring with Masters Par 5 history.
The more I think about it, I feel like Scottie might be 10%+ owned here. I really want to pick him, and since I have 3 entries I think I am going to. But the other two picks both better value imo.
Pat's Picks
šÆ Xander Schauffele
šÆ Matt Fitzpatrick
šÆ Scottie Scheffler
PGA OAD Ownership Projections
ā³ļø Masters Tournament
1ļøā£ 18.6% Jon Rahm (0% used)
2ļøā£ 11.4% Bryson DeChambeau (0% used)
3ļøā£ 9.3% Xander Schauffele (17% used)
4ļøā£ 8.8% Scottie Scheffler (33% used)
5ļøā£ 7.3% Cameron Young (21% used)
6ļøā£ 5.8% Matt Fitzpatrick (35% used)
7ļøā£ 5.8% Tommy Fleetwood (33% used)
8ļøā£ 5.7% Ludvig Aberg (25% used)
9ļøā£ 4.9% Rory McIlroy (25% used)
š 4.4% Patrick Reed (0% used)
Welp here we are! MASSIVE Prize Pool up for grabs in OAD.
I feel generally confident in these ownership numbers, but bear in mind this is a very hard thing to project for with top LIV players only getting to play in the 4 Majors. Plus McIlroy and Morikawa playing through injuries.
I don't plan to be too contrarian here, big dogs win the Masters.
2.5% Min Woo Lee (16% used)
1.8% Robert MacIntyre (15% used)
0.7% Justin Rose (14% used)
0.6% Hideki Matsuyama (42% used)
0.5% Russell Henley (47% used)
0.5% Akshay Bhatia (1% used)
0.4% Si Woo Kim (60% used)
0.4% Jake Knapp (33% used)
0.4% Jacob Bridgeman (22% used)
0.4% Collin Morikawa (48% used)
Valero Texas Open OAD Recap
Pat's Pick 1 ā Ryo Hisatsune ($296K - T8)
Pat's Pick 2 ā S. Yellamaraju ($159K - T14)
Pat's Pick 3 ā Hideki Matsuyama ($99K - T21)
PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings
ā³ļø Valero Texas Open
I made a slight tweak this week, as there are so many players in the field with mostly DNP experience at TPC San Antonio.
Instead of counting course form the full weight, I am now power scaling its contribution based on number of appearances.
Best example is Ryo Hisatsune. Only ever played here once, made the cut, but had an awful final round which killed his SG Total. We want to weight this much smaller than say Matsuyama who has played in 4/5.
Pat's Picks
šÆ Hideki Matsuyama
šÆ Ryo Hisatune
šÆ Sudarshan Yellamar
PGA OAD Ownership Projections
ā³ļø Masters Tournament
1ļøā£ 18.6% Jon Rahm (0% used)
2ļøā£ 11.4% Bryson DeChambeau (0% used)
3ļøā£ 9.3% Xander Schauffele (17% used)
4ļøā£ 8.8% Scottie Scheffler (33% used)
5ļøā£ 7.3% Cameron Young (21% used)
6ļøā£ 5.8% Matt Fitzpatrick (35% used)
7ļøā£ 5.8% Tommy Fleetwood (33% used)
8ļøā£ 5.7% Ludvig Aberg (25% used)
9ļøā£ 4.9% Rory McIlroy (25% used)
š 4.4% Patrick Reed (0% used)
Welp here we are! MASSIVE Prize Pool up for grabs in OAD.
I feel generally confident in these ownership numbers, but bear in mind this is a very hard thing to project for with top LIV players only getting to play in the 4 Majors. Plus McIlroy and Morikawa playing through injuries.
I don't plan to be too contrarian here, big dogs win the Masters.
2.5% Min Woo Lee (16% used)
1.8% Robert MacIntyre (15% used)
0.7% Justin Rose (14% used)
0.6% Hideki Matsuyama (42% used)
0.5% Russell Henley (47% used)
0.5% Akshay Bhatia (1% used)
0.4% Si Woo Kim (60% used)
0.4% Jake Knapp (33% used)
0.4% Jacob Bridgeman (22% used)
0.4% Collin Morikawa (48% used)
Ownership Projections Recap
ā³ļø Valero Texas Open
My Top 10 vs Actual
š¢ Spieth: 16% (1) ā 14% (2)
š“ Aberg: 14% (2) ā 3% (14)
š¢ Straka: 11% (3) ā 15% (1)
š¢ MacIntyre: 7% (4) ā 8% (3)
š¢ Henley: 6% (5) ā 7% (4)
š¢ Fowler: 5% (6) ā 4% (9)
š¢ Thorbjornsen: 4% (7) ā 4% (10)
š” McNealy: 4% (8) ā 6% (5)
š¢ Fleetwood: 3% (9) ā 3% (15)
š¢ Matsuyama: 3% (10) ā 2% (16)
Also in Actual Top 10
š¢ Hisatsune: 3% (12) ā 4% (6)
š” Kim: 1% (17) ā 4% (7)
š” McCarthy: 2% (16) ā 4% (8)
Hit Rates
š© Top 5: 4/5 (80%)
šØ Top 10: 7/10 (70%)
š© Top 20: 18/20 (90%)
š Spearman Ļ: 0.57 (rank accuracy)
Just a massive miss on Aberg, but everything else checks out. Folks saw what he did at the Players and really must be saving to deploy at the Masters next week.
Missed the Morikawa WD š Updated numbers
1ļøā£ 16.5% Jordan Spieth (7% used)
2ļøā£ 14.2% Ludvig Aberg (22% used)
3ļøā£ 10.6% Sepp Straka (9% used)
4ļøā£ 7.4% Robert MacIntyre (7% used)
5ļøā£ 6.0% Russell Henley (40% used)
6ļøā£ 4.8% Rickie Fowler (8% used)
7ļøā£ 3.8% Michael Thorbjornsen (13% used)
8ļøā£ 3.6% Maverick McNealy (31% used)
9ļøā£ 3.4% Tommy Fleetwood (30% used)
š 3.3% Hideki Matsuyama (40% used)
3.2% Keith Mitchell
2.8% Ryo Hisatsune (10% used)
2.4% Alex Noren
1.8% Sudarshan Yellamaraju
1.6% Daniel Berger (7% used)
1.5% Denny McCarthy
1.2% Si Woo Kim (56% used)
1.0% J.J. Spaun (13% used)
0.5% Thorbjorn Olesen
0.5% Marco Penge
PGA One-and-Done Algo Rankings
ā³ļø Valero Texas Open
I made a slight tweak this week, as there are so many players in the field with mostly DNP experience at TPC San Antonio.
Instead of counting course form the full weight, I am now power scaling its contribution based on number of appearances.
Best example is Ryo Hisatsune. Only ever played here once, made the cut, but had an awful final round which killed his SG Total. We want to weight this much smaller than say Matsuyama who has played in 4/5.
Pat's Picks
šÆ Hideki Matsuyama
šÆ Ryo Hisatune
šÆ Sudarshan Yellamar
Missed the Morikawa WD š Updated numbers
1ļøā£ 16.5% Jordan Spieth (7% used)
2ļøā£ 14.2% Ludvig Aberg (22% used)
3ļøā£ 10.6% Sepp Straka (9% used)
4ļøā£ 7.4% Robert MacIntyre (7% used)
5ļøā£ 6.0% Russell Henley (40% used)
6ļøā£ 4.8% Rickie Fowler (8% used)
7ļøā£ 3.8% Michael Thorbjornsen (13% used)
8ļøā£ 3.6% Maverick McNealy (31% used)
9ļøā£ 3.4% Tommy Fleetwood (30% used)
š 3.3% Hideki Matsuyama (40% used)
3.2% Keith Mitchell
2.8% Ryo Hisatsune (10% used)
2.4% Alex Noren
1.8% Sudarshan Yellamaraju
1.6% Daniel Berger (7% used)
1.5% Denny McCarthy
1.2% Si Woo Kim (56% used)
1.0% J.J. Spaun (13% used)
0.5% Thorbjorn Olesen
0.5% Marco Penge









