Perry Sopinsky

2014 to 2026. Across all 26 runs, champions went 226-85 in games against other zone teams. Only three never had to face one: the 2020 Lakers, 2023 Nuggets and 2024 Celtics.

2001 to 2013. Gold = the team they beat was also in the zone. The Lakers beat four zone teams in a single run three times: 2001, 2002 and 2010. The 2001 team lost one game doing it.

To win a title since 2001, you've had to go through other title zone teams. More than half the series every champion won came against a team that was also in the zone. 21 of the 26 Finals were zone vs zone. Where each champ sat, and its seed:

Every champion since 2001, and where they finished the regular season Closest calls: 2023 Nuggets at +3.3 2004 Pistons (only champ with a below-average offense) 2001 Lakers (worst defense of the group)

Every NBA champion since 2001 finished the regular season inside this Title Zone. At least +3.3 points per 100 possessions better than average, with no real hole on offense or defense. Two weeks in, 10 teams are in it. History says about half will still be there in April.

Villanova with 6 or fewer turnovers: wins 86% With 13+: 54% Tyler Perkins 20+ points: Nova wins 86% Ethan Roberts scores 20+: the Irish win 43% Offensive rebounds barely matter: 72% to 74% at any count. If Logan Duncomb sits: Nova 84%.

Villanova vs Notre Dame opens the College Basketball season in Rome tomorrow. I simulated it 10,000 times, here are some key stats I took The 3pt line decides it: Nova wins 87% of sims when it makes more threes than the Irish, 48% when the Irish make more. Other key factors…

Who do you want with the shot clock running out? Jalen Brunson: 53.4% eFG on shots with 7 or fewer seconds left (4.3 a game) last season. League average: 47.5%. Durant 52.8%. Jokic 51.2%. Harden took 4.2 a game at 39.7%. Siakam: 34.5%.

Who can still hit a three with a hand in his face? Brandon Miller led last season's high-volume shooters at 45.4% on contested 3s (defender within 4 ft). League average: 31.8%. Jamal Murray and Kevin Durant were elite open or guarded. Derrick White shot 22% contested.

The next breakout is usually hiding in the minutes. Last season's best per-minute young players who played under 24 a night, ranked by BPM (points added per 100 possessions vs an average player). Kel'el Ware: 11.1 and 9.0 in 22 minutes. Now he's in Milwaukee.