We provide free, open source software to compute the impact of public policy. See our global account @ThePolicyEngine and US account @PolicyEngineUS.
United Kingdom
Joined January 2023
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We estimate summer 2026 price levels after the Middle East war (+15% energy, +22% fuel, +2% food) raise the average UK household's costs by £538 in 2027-28 and move 379,000 people below the poverty line. Stress tests, not forecasts.
The typical energy bill rises from £1,477 in April–June 2026 to about £2,000 in January–March 2027 (Ofgem forecast). Four options we cost for 2027-28:
• £400 per household: £11.78bn
• Cap freeze: £11.39bn
• Targeted discount: £2.11bn
• Extend electricity VAT cut: £1.45bn
Replacing the State Pension triple lock from 2030, across 50,000 paths of prices and earnings:
• Saving in 2039-40: £11.1bn gross, £7.9bn net of tax and benefits
• Full new State Pension £931/yr lower on average
• 27% of households with less income
We estimate the £2 bus fare cap in England outside London costs £409m in total. The £3-to-£2 cut alone costs £273m. Modelled households save £18.20 a year on average.
How does living together change a couple's taxes and benefits? Our calculator compares a couple living as one household with the same two people living apart, for 2026-27 to 2029-30 across the UK nations.
PolicyEngine UK retweeted
I've traded 22 of @PolicyEngineUK's play-money Budget markets this week. On the reporting, I now put a bank tax rise at 75%, a main CGT rate rise at 20% and a lower mansion tax threshold at 15%.
We've also opened seven new ones. Trade against me: manifold.markets/topic/uk-au…
At 4:30pm GMT on Budget day, Wednesday 28 October, we'll present our first estimates of what the Autumn Budget means for public finances, household incomes and poverty, and take your questions.
Register free: us06web.zoom.us/meeting/regi…
Five years ago today PolicyEngine launched in the UK to democratize evidence-based policy, so that anyone can change a tax or benefit rule and see what it means for their household and the country.
Thank you to everyone who has built it with us, and to everyone who uses it.
PolicyEngine UK retweeted
We're at the International Microsimulation Association World Congress in Brussels, 1–3 July. Three talks:
• Maria Juaristi — local microdata calibration with L0 regularisation
• @vahiidahmadi — firm microsimulation + VAT
• @MaxGhenis — hands-on PolicyEngine tutorial
New peer-reviewed, open-access paper: PolicyEngine microsimulation helped 39 UK citizens deliberate real fiscal-policy trade-offs during the cost-of-living crisis — a method later adopted by the UK Climate Change Committee. doi.org/10.1016/j.socimp.202…
PolicyEngine UK retweeted
@MaxGhenis and @ThePolicyEngine team have integrated frontier agentic AI into the most expansive open source microsimulation model of US fiscal policy. AI allows easier use and access as well as automates much of the model creation and maintenance.
youtu.be/Ke_J3pOdL8k?si=in6Q…
We just launched a plugin that brings PolicyEngine to @claudeai.
Describe any tax or benefit reform in plain English. Claude runs a full microsimulation using our open-source model — 700+ variables, 1,200+ parameters, NI to UC.
No code required.
policyengine.org/uk/claude-p…
PolicyEngine UK retweeted
Can the government solve the student loan crisis in England and Wales? 💷
And does the system work better in Scotland? 🏴
Watch our analysis featuring new modelling from @PolicyEngineUK and let us know what you think should be done👇
#Peston
Happy Valentine's Day! We just launched PolicyEngine's marriage calculator.
Find out if saying "I do" means a bonus or penalty for your household — from the marriage allowance to Universal Credit.
Try it: policyengine.org/uk/marriage