Election polls, voting trends, win probabilities, pollster ratings, and real-time election results. All in one place.
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Our forecast gave Democrats an 88% chance of winning the Senate before election day, and AP’s calls now give them 54 seats. Our favorite won 63 of the 67 Senate and governor races called so far.
pollstergraph.com/results/us…
Israel, partial count (31% of the electorate, 3,906 ballot boxes, read 4:51 am Israel time): @PollsterGraph projection gives Likud 27 seats (80% range 25–28) and Netanyahu's bloc 56 (54–58); 61 or more in <1% of simulations. pollstergraph.com/results/il…
🇮🇱 ISRAEL ELECTION UPDATE
With 6.5% of the electorate counted, PollsterGraph projects:
• Likud: 29 seats
• Yashar: 21 seats
Likud is projected to finish first in over 99% of simulations, but Netanyahu's bloc has just a 14% chance of reaching the 61-seat majority.
Who wins the most Knesset seats? Here, PollsterGraph and Polymarket answered essentially the same question, but reached opposite conclusions.
PollsterGraph: Likud 70.5%, Yashar 28.5%.
Polymarket: Likud 32.5%, Yashar 67.5%.
Full forecast: pollstergraph.com
Who becomes prime minister?
Our model, conditional on this Knesset forming a government: Netanyahu 41%, Eisenkot 33%.
Polymarket, predicting the first PM sworn in by the end of 2027, including after a possible new election: Eisenkot 58%, Netanyahu 25%.
How did the model perform historically?
Tested on seven Israeli elections from 2013 to 2022, the actual seat count for Netanyahu's camp fell within the model's 80% prediction range in 6 of 7 elections.
Each election was forecast using a model fitted on the other six.
Winning the most seats is not the same as securing a majority.
Netanyahu's bloc averaged 53.5 seats, reaching the 61-seat threshold in just 8% of simulations.
The opposition without Arab parties averaged 51.7 seats, reaching 61 in 5%, or 24% in a coalition with Ra'am.
Likud was projected to win 24.4 seats on average, followed by Yashar with 21.9 and Together with 12.4.
Four smaller parties faced uncertainty around Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold, where a fraction of a percentage point can determine whether a party enters parliament.
