Leading the charge to keep prediction markets accessible to everyone. Views are the Coalition's own.
Joined November 2025
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A must-listen before Tuesday 🎧👇
The final pre-election episode of Beyond the Polls features @SeanPMaloney talking prediction markets, Cook Political’s @JessicaTaylor explaining the Senate races, and @scottbraddock choosing Texas. Listen!!
ricochet.com/podcasts/beyond…
Coalition for Prediction Markets retweeted
Questions I'd like to understand better about states rights vs federal pre-emption for prediction markets.
Could a state decide it does not want its residents to have access to the stock exchange or 401k plans?
If prediction markets are regulated as financial markets, what is the difference?
Utah has filed criminal charges against Kalshi Inc, alleging the company illegally promoted online gambling in the state amid an escalating fight over prediction markets bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
"If anything, it proves my argument: we need one clear federal standard, set by the regulator Congress actually picked - not fifty states and a dozen courts each drawing the line somewhere different."
@GivnerAriel makes the case in today's @rcmarkets op-ed on the Ninth Circuit's recent decision. Read more 👇
Coalition for Prediction Markets retweeted
.@SeanPMaloney on prediction markets: "It's you and me trading as counterparties... with a neutral exchange we're transacting on that's taking a small fee."
Sportsbooks kick out winners. Markets don't.
"By the tens of millions, the consumer has said, 'We'd rather do it that way.'"
Worried about manipulation and insider trading in prediction markets?
@SeanPMaloney on @BloombergTV breaks down how our members protect market integrity:
☑️ Being based in the U.S. with strong federal oversight from the @CFTC
☑️ Market forces that make manipulation costly
☑️ Proactive surveillance, insider trading restrictions, and safeguards against trading on material nonpublic information
☑️ Working with law enforcement to investigate, refer, and prosecute misconduct
Trust in markets isn't automatic. It's built through strong rules, active enforcement, and accountability.
WATCH: @SeanPMaloney @BloombergTV on polls vs. markets.
Polls can be biased, expensive, and only capture a snapshot.
Markets move in real time.
That's why candidates on both sides of the aisle - and major news organizations - turn to prediction markets to see where expectations are shifting and stay ahead of the story.
Coalition for Prediction Markets retweeted
"Historically, America has frowned on monopolies and protected free-market competition. Why drop this principle for the sake of the gaming industry?"
🔥 @mansourtarek_
Yes, a bet and a trade often look similar.
But how they work is fundamentally different.
A sportsbook sets the odds and takes the other side of your bet. Prediction markets are markets, where buyers and sellers compete to discover and produce efficient prices and enable important public benefits.
What the market is about can change, but the structure doesn't.
My op-ed on prediction markets and regulation:
Huge milestone for the prediction markets industry.
The next generation of financial markets won't just track assets, but the events and risks that move and affect the world.
S&P Dow Jones Indices and Kalshi are joining forces to build the next generation of financial markets.
The Dow launched in 1896. The S&P 500 in 1957. The idea was simple: bring individual stocks together into a single benchmark, giving people a clearer view of the broader market.
Over time, products built around those benchmarks transformed investing. Index funds, ETFs, futures, and options gave investors ways to gain diversified market exposure and hedge broad market swings.
These indices became foundations of global finance. More than $20 trillion is indexed or benchmarked to the S&P 500 alone.
Today, this structure extends beyond stocks to bonds, commodities, currencies, and more.
The next step is to bring that structure to the events that shape everyone’s lives.
Through this partnership, S&P Dow Jones Indices and Kalshi will work together to create indices composed of Kalshi event contracts.
Think about what that opens up.
An index of political power. An index of supply chain risk. An index tracking AI’s impact on employment. An index of sports outcomes that affect broadcasters, advertisers, cities, and small businesses. An index of weather risks that shape harvests, energy demand, and business revenues.
Each would bundle event contracts into a single indicator, helping people understand how related risks are evolving.
Over time, products built around these indices could offer diversified exposure to those events and new ways to hedge their impact.
The events that shape our lives could become as easy to track and gain exposure to as the S&P 500.
Coalition for Prediction Markets retweeted
Regulate polls, not prediction markets. There’s no evidence that betting harms election integrity, but fake surveys have done so this year, write Harry Crane @HarryDCrane and @KolemanStrumpf
on.wsj.com/4i8zIKq
Coalition for Prediction Markets retweeted
Prediction markets are transparent, both in their incentives (people want to make money and avoid losing money) and their method (free markets aggregating millions of opinions).
Polls are not.
Regulate polls, not prediction markets. There’s no evidence that betting harms election integrity, but fake surveys have done so this year, write Harry Crane @HarryDCrane and @KolemanStrumpf
on.wsj.com/4i8zIKq
One fake poll can make headlines, shape narratives, and throw an entire race into question.
With the midterms approaching, separating real signals from noise matters more than ever. As Brett M. Decker points out in @RealClearMarkets:
☑️ Polls capture voter sentiment. Markets measure what people are willing to put money behind.
☑️ Traders have a financial incentive to dig deeper, question shaky data, and challenge the consensus.
☑️ When misleading information distorts the odds, traders have an incentive to correct it.
Markets aren't perfect. But there's a big difference between having an opinion and putting money behind it.
👀
Mess around, find out.
This is what federal oversight and real enforcement look like.
CFTC enforcement chief David Miller told me at @nextpredictio that the agency has scrutinized insider trading cases tied to the 2026 midterms. "We’re watching" and "we’ll come after you" if you're a candidate or campaign staffer doing insider trading. cnn.com/2026/10/22/politics/…
The difference between the casino model and the prediction market model?
Casinos limit you when you win too much. But when you keep losing, the promos keep coming, even when problem gambling may be involved.
That’s the gambling business model: discourage winners, keep losers coming back.
Kalshi CEO @mansourtarek_ joins @nickgillespie to discuss why prediction markets are fundamentally different from sportsbooks, why states are trying to regulate them, and how prohibition drives markets offshore on the Reason Interview. reason.com/podcast/2026/10/2…
Market abuse can happen anywhere. The difference is whether anyone catches it and whether there are consequences.
That’s why uniform federal oversight, KYC, surveillance and real enforcement matter.
Market manipulation has no place in CFTC-regulated markets.
With the midterm elections approaching, the @CFTC is closely monitoring prediction markets for attempts to distort trading activity or manipulate outcomes.
Let me be clear: Those who manipulate our markets will be held accountable. @BloombergTV @tylerskendall
Coalition for Prediction Markets retweeted
CEO and co-founder of @Kalshi @mansourtarek_ fireside at @CFTC @KState AgCon. “Markets don’t lie”. Prediction market tools complement traditional market structure - to illuminate and hedge risks not captured by the incumbents.
Coalition for Prediction Markets retweeted
Kalshi CEO @mansourtarek_ joins @nickgillespie to discuss why prediction markets are fundamentally different from sportsbooks, why states are trying to regulate them, and how prohibition drives markets offshore on the Reason Interview. reason.com/podcast/2026/10/2…
"Such hedging applications extend beyond sports. Event contracts let bicycle-rental companies and tourist sites hedge against rainfall, ski lodges against low snowfall, and other businesses against gas price spikes."
NEW from me in @NRO: Prediction markets aren't "just gambling," even for sports.
nationalreview.com/2026/10/p…
