the venn diagram of life series twitter and jesse winker twitter has one person in the middle and that person is me
Joined October 2019
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the sport of college football may be a dying star on the brink of total collapse but at least it occasionally gives us such beautiful solar flares as "autobid clause that matters for five entire days and then immediately ceases to exist"
Notable in reporting by @CFBHeather on the CFP expansion: Notre Dame will no longer have an automatic inclusion clause if it meets a certain ranking criteria.
RIP Notre Dame Clause
Born: December 2025
Died: November 2026
But what a full life it lived.
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Yes, FPI is a predictive metric. Still two problems, though:
(1) It's not the best at prediction, at least this year. It's only .471 against the Vegas spread!
(2) It has one glaring bias: there are five top-25 FPI teams that aren't top-25 in SP+, and *all five* are in the SEC.
Alright let's get into it. FPI answers one question: how good is each team going forward? It doesn't answer who has earned a ranking. We have other metrics for that. Allow me to put on my teacher hat for a moment...
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Now, to play devil's advocate, (1) is debatable. FPI has been bad against the spread, but it's usually pretty good at predicting the overall result and rough MOV.
But the thing is, (2) seems like the metric's big flaw...so are the overall numbers even helpful as a counterpoint?
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Now that the resumes are even more similar, the Bama argument has pivoted to "umm uhhh we've got better road wins!"
You know we don't choose 75% of our schedule, right? It is literally impossible for Tennessee to have a road win against a team better than 5-4 right now.
For the "Tennessee should be ranked ahead of Alabama" crowd:
Tennessee beat Kentucky by 28 ... in Knoxville. Alabama beat Kentucky by 28 ... in Lexington.
Tennessee lost to South Carolina. Alabama beat South Carolina ... by 31 points.
Tennessee beat Alabama ... in Knoxville ... the week after Alabama played Georgia. The week after Alabama played Georgia, Georgia lost to Auburn in Athens.
AP ranked wins on the road: Alabama 3, Tennessee 0. Alabama's wins by 28, 33 and 18 points.
CFP ranked road wins: Alabama 2, Tennessee 0. Alabama's wins by 28 and 18 points.
Head-to-head should be the decider when all else is close to equal. In this case, right now, it's not.
Any questions?
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Maladroit retweeted
In 2018, Brian Kemp ran for governor of Georgia. He was also the man running the election.
As Secretary of State, his office had canceled nearly 670,000 voter registrations in 2017 alone. Then, weeks before Election Day, it froze 53,000 more under a rule called "exact match." A missing hyphen. A dropped initial. That was enough. Nearly 70% of those frozen applications belonged to Black Georgians, in a state that's about 32% Black.
Stacey Abrams lost by about 55,000 votes.
She didn't wait for the next race. She built Fair Fight and went to work in every one of Georgia's 159 counties. She recruited poll watchers, ran registration drives, and took the system to court.
Georgia organizers registered more than 800,000 new voters.
Two years later, Georgia went blue for president for the first time since 1992. Two months after that, it sent two Democrats to the U.S. Senate and handed them control of the chamber.
Last night Jon Ossoff won re-election. Keisha Lance Bottoms became the first Democrat elected governor of Georgia since 1998. Tanya Miller became the state's first woman attorney general.
Maladroit retweeted
Sen. Raphael Warnock told donors in April that Democrats are "sleeping" on Mississippi to some laughs, per recordings of event. His argument to invest in the race was that Democrats' "ceiling is too low ... our ceiling is 52. That's terrible. Part of the way to fix that is the South"
"I think we can win in Mississippi if the conditions are just right"
Colom currently leads by ... 65 votes
Listen -->
cdn.sanity.io/files/ifn0l6bs…
cdn.sanity.io/files/ifn0l6bs…
Maladroit retweeted
it really bothers me that non-southerners call southerners stupid illiterate hicks until it’s time to extract political power from us. i think that in itself is enough to desire and imagine more beyond current electoral politics. like this can’t be all there is
"Any way you slice it, it's eight more losses"
So if the SEC didn't have a week of conference games, we're just assuming they'd go 16-0 in that extra OOC week instead?
NEW: Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian says the SEC is cannibalizing itself with a nine-game conference schedule👀
"Any way you slice it, it’s eight more losses. So if you are fortunate enough to be part of that discussion from the committee, how much is the committee going to value one more conference game in the SEC, right?"
He added: "To some degree we put the cart before the horse."
(h/t @InsideTexas)
on3.com/news/steve-sarkisian…
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Yeah, the other top QB prospects play some real tough schedules
Like CJ Carr, who's faced Wisconsin, Rice, MSU, Purdue, UNC, Stanford, and BYU
Or Darian Mensah, who's faced Stanford, Florida A&M, Wake Forest, CMU, Clemson, FSU, and Pitt
Mestemaker is fun, just tough to compare him to his peers playing big ten and SEC schedules while he plays TikTok programs like Colorado
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Maladroit retweeted
“From the streaming service that brought you KPop Demon Hunters” would be accurate.
“Studio” is just not true. Steps is from Netflix Animation Studios, not Sony Pictures Animation. I know Netflix owns the KPDH IP itself, but Netflix’s in-house studio still didn’t produce it.
no the fuck it isn't????
ALT a screenshot from the quoted trailer, which says this film is "from the studio that brought you KPop Demon Hunters". it is not. KPop Demon Hunters was produced by Sony Pictures Animation; Steps is produced by Netflix Animation Studios and Paper Kite Productions. the only connection between the two films is that they're being distributed on Netflix.
New trailer for ‘STEPS’.
The film follows Cinderella’s evil stepsisters who are actually depicted as kind & misunderstood.
Releasing November 20 on Netflix.
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Even if you ignore how this stat is both inaccurate (it should be specific to OOC games) and incredibly cherry-picked (why just the regular season?)...
The average top-ten team goes about 11-1, maybe a little worse. So...going 1-11 against them is about what you'd expect, right?
Over the last 20 seasons, Big 12 teams not named Oklahoma or Texas are 1-11 vs Top 10 Power 4 teams in the regular season. The lone win being Oklahoma State’s upset over Oregon earlier this year...
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
Big 12 teams besides Oklahoma and Texas have multiple regular-season wins over top-10 Power 4 teams in the last 20 seasons, such as Iowa State's 37-31 double-OT upset of then-No. 2 Oklahoma State in 2011.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Okla…
espn.com/college-footba… (confirms the cited OSU-Oregon win)
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Maladroit retweeted
If you like Pokémon, perhaps I can introduce you to another turn-based RPG with switching out, deep stat analysis, field conditions, and a whole host of oddly named and shaped little guys to choose as your comfort character. That's right, it's Baseball.
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For a program that loves calling us little brother this is some *real* little brother behavior, lol
If OU played OSU's schedule, what would their record be? @CareyAMurdock tells @cfitzfox & @TylersTakes that the Sooners would probably be in the CFP.
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Ten years ago the Cardinals were 10th in payroll; now they're 28th. The Padres were 26th in payroll; now they're 8th.
Payroll rankings don't show that some teams can't compete, because *the high-payroll teams change*. You'd be stupid not to spend more when you're trying to win!
If you want to make the playoffs, just be a top 10 spender in MLB.
Oh, you're a small-market team? Better make sure you're in a bad division, or you are the Brewers/Rays!
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People are mad about this for the wrong reason, IMO.
Having one team far enough below another that you can't justify a multi-spot H2H bump is understandable; necessary, later in the season.
What's silly is *why* this gap has ostensibly opened between Oregon and OKST, this week.
(For those H2H truthers: To me, the Tulsa loss is so bad it should drag down Oklahoma State’s overall resume to a point where I don’t directly compare them to Oregon right now (not after the Ducks’ big win this weekend, boosting their resume w/ two Top-25 wins).
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