ProfPokeQuant

One of my fastest flips yet. Picked up this One Piece Marshall D. Teach PSA 10 for $414 on Thursday. Sold it less than 48 hours later for $550 ($484 after fees). $70 profit after fees in under two days. Not bad! Deals like this are hiding in eBay every day. I've made deal finder completely free if you want to check it out: cardboardterminal.app/deal-f…

Bought this PSA 9 Reshiram & Charizard Pokemon card for $330 on Tuesday using Deal Finder. Sold it for $500 this morning. A quick $170 spread before fees 🔥 And get this... another copy sold yesterday for $700. Some crazy deals hiding on eBay right now. Deal Finder is free if you want to check it out: cardboardterminal.app/deal-f…

Maybe a slight downturn in the last two weeks, but overall slabs are crushing this year!

Insane number of deals tonight sheesh

I didn't love the tools that existed for exploring card sales data. So I built my own. It lets you chart individual card prices over time split by grade (of course). But I wanted to go further. I built market indices for every major category, set, era, and character/player. For example, you can compare how Pokémon is performing against One Piece and Riftbound (shown below). Pokémon has been crushing it this year, but might be showing early signs of a correction 👀 You can also get pretty creative grouping the data different ways. Want to see whether vintage PSA 6s are outperforming modern PSA 10s? You can do that. Check out the tool if you're interested - totally free. I'd love to see what people come up with. Post the coolest chart you can make 😎 cardboardterminal.app/cards/…

Yes raw-only EV is in the tool! Both for the whole pack, and per card

I think I just found something the Pokémon card market hasn't caught onto yet. Some booster packs now have a calculated expected return of over 200%. Here's the math. A few months ago, I wrote a post about calculating the expected value of opening every Pokémon booster pack using pull rates, recent sales, and PSA grading data. One set stood out: Fates Collide. At the time, a pack cost about $44, and its contents were worth $36.47 on average if you sold or graded each hit optimally. An 83% expected return. Better than a lottery ticket, but still a losing proposition. But something has changed. Graded Pokémon card prices have skyrocketed, while sealed pack prices haven't kept up. Today, the math looks completely different: • Pack price: $44.88 • Expected value: $107.57 • Expected return: 240% So where does all that EV come from? Take Mew Holo #29. A PSA 10 is now worth around $3,000, up 743% in the past year. But unlike the ultra-rare chase cards, you pull Mew about once every 34 packs. Obviously, not every copy gets a PSA 10. So I weight each possible grade by its historical PSA frequency, subtract grading costs, and account for the probability of pulling the card. The result? Mew alone contributes $18.16 of EV to every Fates Collide pack. Lugia BREAK adds another $9.46. I repeat this process for every card in the set. Interestingly, despite the 240% expected return, there's still a 76% chance of getting back less than 25% of your money. Most packs lose money. A handful of enormous hits pull the average way up. And Fates Collide isn't alone anymore. Several other sets now have positive modeled EV too. The prices of individual graded cards are moving faster than the sealed packs containing them. I've made the entire pack EV tool free on Cardboard Terminal if you want to check it out: cardboardterminal.app/packs

Recent prices are all over the place on this card. Thanks for bringing it up, I’ll add something to flag these cases

Yeah there is a ships from filter near the bottom of the filters

They’re in there! They’re classified as “other” sports right now, but a quick filter is just search WWE in the search bar.