NBA Prop Analyst | NBA '23 473-326 +55.42u | NBA '24 423-333 +47.81u
Joined November 2008
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#NBA Season Recap (+47.81u) :
Regular season:
Record: 380-298
Profit: +41.53
ROI: 6.12%
Playoffs:
Record: 41-34
Profit: +1.63u
ROI: 2.17%
Futures:
Record: 2-1
Profit: +4.65u
ROI: 132.86%
Total Profit: +47.81u
End of another profitable NBA season. I'm not happy with my playoff performance since I smashed last season post-season but I'm glad we finished the season close to +50u. Thanks for all the support during the process!
#GamblingX
#NBA | 2026-10-31 | Pelicans vs. Hawks
Herb Jones Over 10.5 Points + Rebounds (-113 FD, -127 CZR, -130 DK)
- I'm really encouraged by Herb Jones' expanded role in New Orleans, especially after his impressive performance against Sacramento. The coaching staff has been actively looking for ways to get him more involved, and we're finally seeing signs of that adjustment.
- Head coach Jamahl Mosley recently made his intentions clear regarding Herb's playing time, stating: "Finding more time for him is going to be a key priority for me." He followed that up by emphasizing how important it is to keep Jones on the floor after his outstanding +27 performance against Sacramento.
- Jones responded with 16 points and 4 rebounds (20 PR) in 32 minutes against the Kings, despite picking up four fouls. He attempted 12 shots, more than double his previous season-high of five.
- Before that game, Jones hadn't played more than 19 minutes in any of his first four appearances. The jump to 32 minutes is extremely encouraging, especially considering the coaching staff's recent comments.
- 8/10 hit rate since last season in games without both Murray and Missi, according to our historical sample. The potential for additional playing time is the biggest reason I'm interested in this line.
- With Murray and Yves Missi still sidelined, I expect Jones to play another huge role in this game.
📊 Research: @propsmadness
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🏀 NBA Recap | October 30, 2026 | Season: 18-13 (+3.59u)
✅ Anthony Davis O21.5 PTS (-102 FD) — 2.0u
✅ Ausar Thompson O10.5 RA (+102 FD) — 1.0u
✅ Cooper Flagg O22.5 PTS (-114 FD) — 1.0u
✅ Jaden McDaniels O19.5 PA (-119 DK) — 1.0u
❌ Julius Randle O24.5 PA (-118 FD) — 1.0u
A much-needed bounce-back! 4-1 (+3.70u) 🔥
After a rough stretch, it's great to finally put together a strong, profitable night. Exactly the kind of bounce-back we needed!
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Jaden McDaniels Over 19.5 Points + Assists ✅
3rd quarter cash by Daniels!
#NBA | 2026-10-30 | Timberwolves vs. Clippers
Jaden McDaniels Over 19.5 Points + Assists (-119 DK, -121 CZR, -125 FD)
- Anthony Edwards is OUT, and this creates a massive offensive opportunity for McDaniels. He was already averaging nearly 18 PA with Edwards available, and I don't think expecting another 5 PA in his absence is unreasonable.
- 17/22 hit rate over the previous two seasons without Edwards. The historical numbers are extremely encouraging, especially considering the additional offensive responsibilities McDaniels is expected to take on.
- Edwards himself talked about McDaniels' expanded offensive role during the preseason, mentioning more ball-screen actions, additional touches, and opportunities to attack smaller defenders in the post. He even said, "I think he gonna average 20, 25 points easy." The team clearly wants McDaniels to become a bigger offensive weapon.
- We already saw the impact of Edwards' absence against Golden State. McDaniels finished with 19 points and 4 assists (23 PA) in 35 minutes, attempting a season-high 18 shots. That's a significant jump from his previous four games, when he averaged 11 FGA.
- The Clippers are a challenging matchup for opposing guards because of their strong perimeter defense. I expect players like LaMelo Ball and Dosunmu to face tougher individual defensive assignments, potentially creating more favorable scoring opportunities for McDaniels.
- Another encouraging sign is his growing playmaking involvement. He's recorded 3+ assists in four consecutive games, and with Edwards unavailable, Minnesota will need additional offensive creation from its wings.
- Chris Finch has emphasized the importance of maintaining offensive spacing and avoiding forced shots without Edwards. McDaniels' expanded role gives Minnesota another way to generate offense without relying entirely on its guards.
- Between his historical production without Edwards, increased shot volume, and the additional offensive responsibility, I'm expecting 23–25 PA from McDaniels tonight.
📊 Research: @propsmadness
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Ausar Thompson Over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists ✅
3rd quarter cash by Ausar! 12 and still counting.
#NBA | 2026-10-30 | Pistons vs. Nets
Ausar Thompson Over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists (+102 FD, -108 CZR, -115 DK)
- I'm extremely optimistic about Ausar's expanded playmaking role this season. Detroit has clearly been experimenting with using him as a secondary ball handler, allowing Cade Cunningham to operate off the ball more frequently.
- After his impressive 8-assist performance against Charlotte, head coach J.B. Bickerstaff praised Ausar's ability to read defenses and create for his teammates, calling him "a high-level playmaker when the ball's in his hands." Cade has also praised Ausar's passing ability and spoken about getting him more opportunities to initiate the offense.
- Excluding the game in which he got injured and the one where his minutes were limited following his return, Ausar played 33 and 29 minutes, generating 26 and 28 combined potential assists + rebound chances. That's exactly the kind of opportunity volume I want to see for this line.
- Jalen Duren is still OUT. His absence creates a significant rebounding void, and I expect Ausar to take on additional responsibilities on the glass while continuing to develop his role as a secondary offensive creator.
- 18/22 hit rate since the 2024-25 season when generating 20+ combined potential assists and rebound chances. His involvement in the two unrestricted games this season has been comfortably above that threshold.
- The matchup is another major reason I love this play. Brooklyn has been one of the most generous teams in the league when it comes to allowing assists, while remaining relatively average in rebounding. That's an ideal combination for someone who can contribute in both categories.
- With Duren unavailable, Ausar's growing playmaking responsibilities, and a favorable matchup against Brooklyn, I really like his chances of clearing 10.5 RA tonight!
📊 Research: @propsmadness
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Anthony Davis Over 21.5 Points - 2u✅
How can you not love this guy. Played perfect game.
#NBA | 2026-10-30 | Wizards vs. Hornets
Anthony Davis Over 21.5 Points (-102 FD, -107 CZR, -114 DK) — 2.0u
🔥 We're going right back to AD for another 2.0u play!
- We've already cashed twice on AD this season, including his 29-point performance against these same Hornets just four days ago. Same line, better odds, and a matchup we've already seen him dominate. I'm more than happy to run it back!
- AD finished with 29 points in 36 minutes on 11/22 shooting against Charlotte, taking 22 shots and leading Washington in scoring. That's exactly the kind of offensive involvement we've been targeting since the beginning of the season.
- One of the most encouraging things from that game was his chemistry with Trae Young. After the game, Trae specifically talked about the need for better spacing when AD gets isolation opportunities. That's a great sign that the team recognizes how important it is to create favorable scoring situations for him.
- I still don't see either Diabaté or Kalkbrenner being able to consistently contain AD without getting into foul trouble. Charlotte has some interesting defensive pieces, but neither has the ideal combination of strength, mobility, and experience to deal with Davis for an entire game.
- We're also getting a home matchup this time, with Washington looking to bounce back after losing the previous meeting. I expect them to continue leaning heavily on AD, especially in half-court situations where his ability to create his own shot becomes crucial.
- Two straight cashes on AD, 29 points in this exact matchup, and we're getting 21.5 again at nearly even odds. I'm expecting another 25+ point performance tonight!
📊 Research: @propsmadness
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Melo Props retweeted
#NBA | 2026-10-30 | Nets vs. Pistons
Julius Randle Over 24.5 Points + Assists (-118 FD, -118 CZR)
- We're going right back to Randle after cashing all three of our previous plays on him this season! Same line, same offensive role, and another opportunity to capitalize on his expanded playmaking responsibilities in Brooklyn.
- Head coach Jordi Fernandez has been extremely optimistic about Randle's playmaking ability, even saying, "I think that this could be his best playmaking year." He also praised Randle's ability to deliver accurate, well-timed passes and make his teammates better. We're already seeing that vision translate onto the court.
- 40, 28, 17, and 28 PA in his first four games. The only miss came against Indiana, where a massive blowout limited him to just 24 minutes. In the other three games, he played 35+ minutes and comfortably cleared this line every time.
- Even against Boston's tough defense, Randle finished with 28 PA on 23 FGA, despite going 0/7 from three. Brooklyn pushed the Celtics into overtime, and Randle played 44 minutes. His offensive involvement remains extremely encouraging even when his shooting isn't perfect.
- Randle is averaging 28.3 PA in 35.4 minutes this season, with approximately 26.5% usage. His role as one of Brooklyn's primary offensive creators looks extremely secure, and he continues to contribute through both scoring and facilitating.
- Detroit is certainly a tough defensive opponent, but they're still missing Jalen Duren. His absence changes their interior rotation, and I expect Randle to remain aggressive attacking the paint and creating opportunities for his teammates.
- The Nets are also coming off two days of rest after their competitive overtime loss to Boston. With Egor Demin unavailable, I expect Brooklyn to continue relying heavily on Randle's ability to initiate offense and create for others.
- 3/3 on our Randle picks this season! His combination of scoring volume, playmaking responsibilities, and consistent minutes gives him multiple paths to clear 24.5 PA. Happy to run it back once again!
📊 Research: @propsmadness
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Melo Props retweeted
#NBA | 2026-10-30 | Pistons vs. Nets
Ausar Thompson Over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists (+102 FD, -108 CZR, -115 DK)
- I'm extremely optimistic about Ausar's expanded playmaking role this season. Detroit has clearly been experimenting with using him as a secondary ball handler, allowing Cade Cunningham to operate off the ball more frequently.
- After his impressive 8-assist performance against Charlotte, head coach J.B. Bickerstaff praised Ausar's ability to read defenses and create for his teammates, calling him "a high-level playmaker when the ball's in his hands." Cade has also praised Ausar's passing ability and spoken about getting him more opportunities to initiate the offense.
- Excluding the game in which he got injured and the one where his minutes were limited following his return, Ausar played 33 and 29 minutes, generating 26 and 28 combined potential assists + rebound chances. That's exactly the kind of opportunity volume I want to see for this line.
- Jalen Duren is still OUT. His absence creates a significant rebounding void, and I expect Ausar to take on additional responsibilities on the glass while continuing to develop his role as a secondary offensive creator.
- 18/22 hit rate since the 2024-25 season when generating 20+ combined potential assists and rebound chances. His involvement in the two unrestricted games this season has been comfortably above that threshold.
- The matchup is another major reason I love this play. Brooklyn has been one of the most generous teams in the league when it comes to allowing assists, while remaining relatively average in rebounding. That's an ideal combination for someone who can contribute in both categories.
- With Duren unavailable, Ausar's growing playmaking responsibilities, and a favorable matchup against Brooklyn, I really like his chances of clearing 10.5 RA tonight!
📊 Research: @propsmadness
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Melo Props retweeted
#NBA | 2026-10-30 | Wizards vs. Hornets
Anthony Davis Over 21.5 Points (-102 FD, -107 CZR, -114 DK) — 2.0u
🔥 We're going right back to AD for another 2.0u play!
- We've already cashed twice on AD this season, including his 29-point performance against these same Hornets just four days ago. Same line, better odds, and a matchup we've already seen him dominate. I'm more than happy to run it back!
- AD finished with 29 points in 36 minutes on 11/22 shooting against Charlotte, taking 22 shots and leading Washington in scoring. That's exactly the kind of offensive involvement we've been targeting since the beginning of the season.
- One of the most encouraging things from that game was his chemistry with Trae Young. After the game, Trae specifically talked about the need for better spacing when AD gets isolation opportunities. That's a great sign that the team recognizes how important it is to create favorable scoring situations for him.
- I still don't see either Diabaté or Kalkbrenner being able to consistently contain AD without getting into foul trouble. Charlotte has some interesting defensive pieces, but neither has the ideal combination of strength, mobility, and experience to deal with Davis for an entire game.
- We're also getting a home matchup this time, with Washington looking to bounce back after losing the previous meeting. I expect them to continue leaning heavily on AD, especially in half-court situations where his ability to create his own shot becomes crucial.
- Two straight cashes on AD, 29 points in this exact matchup, and we're getting 21.5 again at nearly even odds. I'm expecting another 25+ point performance tonight!
📊 Research: @propsmadness
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#NBA | 2026-10-30 | Timberwolves vs. Clippers
Jaden McDaniels Over 19.5 Points + Assists (-119 DK, -121 CZR, -125 FD)
- Anthony Edwards is OUT, and this creates a massive offensive opportunity for McDaniels. He was already averaging nearly 18 PA with Edwards available, and I don't think expecting another 5 PA in his absence is unreasonable.
- 17/22 hit rate over the previous two seasons without Edwards. The historical numbers are extremely encouraging, especially considering the additional offensive responsibilities McDaniels is expected to take on.
- Edwards himself talked about McDaniels' expanded offensive role during the preseason, mentioning more ball-screen actions, additional touches, and opportunities to attack smaller defenders in the post. He even said, "I think he gonna average 20, 25 points easy." The team clearly wants McDaniels to become a bigger offensive weapon.
- We already saw the impact of Edwards' absence against Golden State. McDaniels finished with 19 points and 4 assists (23 PA) in 35 minutes, attempting a season-high 18 shots. That's a significant jump from his previous four games, when he averaged 11 FGA.
- The Clippers are a challenging matchup for opposing guards because of their strong perimeter defense. I expect players like LaMelo Ball and Dosunmu to face tougher individual defensive assignments, potentially creating more favorable scoring opportunities for McDaniels.
- Another encouraging sign is his growing playmaking involvement. He's recorded 3+ assists in four consecutive games, and with Edwards unavailable, Minnesota will need additional offensive creation from its wings.
- Chris Finch has emphasized the importance of maintaining offensive spacing and avoiding forced shots without Edwards. McDaniels' expanded role gives Minnesota another way to generate offense without relying entirely on its guards.
- Between his historical production without Edwards, increased shot volume, and the additional offensive responsibility, I'm expecting 23–25 PA from McDaniels tonight.
📊 Research: @propsmadness
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#NBA | 2026-10-30 | Mavericks vs. Rockets
Cooper Flagg Over 22.5 Points (-114 FD, -120 CZR)
- We're going right back to Flagg after cashing our previous play against OKC! We're getting an even lower line this time, and I really like what we've seen from him offensively to start the season.
- Flagg is averaging 25.3 PPG this season, clearing this line in 3 of his 4 appearances. His only miss came against Indiana, where a massive blowout limited him to just 17 minutes. In games where he's played 30+ minutes, he's 3/3 on this line.
- His scoring numbers so far:
32 PTS vs. Rockets (33 min)
14 PTS vs. Pacers (17 min)
29 PTS vs. Heat (40 min)
26 PTS vs. Thunder (33 min)
- What I love most is his offensive involvement. Flagg attempted 23 shots in each of his last two games, showing just how much Dallas is relying on him to generate offense. He's clearly established himself as the team's primary scoring option.
- The matchup isn't easy, but we've already seen Flagg dominate this exact opponent. He dropped 32 points on 17 FGA against Houston in the season opener, getting to the free-throw line 13 times. That's particularly encouraging considering how strong Houston's defense has been.
- Houston will also be without Steven Adams, while Marcus Smart and Alperen Sengun are dealing with injuries. Their availability could affect Houston's defensive rotations, potentially creating additional opportunities for Flagg.
- 3/3 with 30+ minutes, 23 FGA in each of his last two games, and 32 points against this exact opponent. His offensive role looks extremely promising, and I'm expecting another 25+ point performance tonight!
📊 Research: @propsmadness
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#NBA | 2026-10-30 | Nets vs. Pistons
Julius Randle Over 24.5 Points + Assists (-118 FD, -118 CZR)
- We're going right back to Randle after cashing all three of our previous plays on him this season! Same line, same offensive role, and another opportunity to capitalize on his expanded playmaking responsibilities in Brooklyn.
- Head coach Jordi Fernandez has been extremely optimistic about Randle's playmaking ability, even saying, "I think that this could be his best playmaking year." He also praised Randle's ability to deliver accurate, well-timed passes and make his teammates better. We're already seeing that vision translate onto the court.
- 40, 28, 17, and 28 PA in his first four games. The only miss came against Indiana, where a massive blowout limited him to just 24 minutes. In the other three games, he played 35+ minutes and comfortably cleared this line every time.
- Even against Boston's tough defense, Randle finished with 28 PA on 23 FGA, despite going 0/7 from three. Brooklyn pushed the Celtics into overtime, and Randle played 44 minutes. His offensive involvement remains extremely encouraging even when his shooting isn't perfect.
- Randle is averaging 28.3 PA in 35.4 minutes this season, with approximately 26.5% usage. His role as one of Brooklyn's primary offensive creators looks extremely secure, and he continues to contribute through both scoring and facilitating.
- Detroit is certainly a tough defensive opponent, but they're still missing Jalen Duren. His absence changes their interior rotation, and I expect Randle to remain aggressive attacking the paint and creating opportunities for his teammates.
- The Nets are also coming off two days of rest after their competitive overtime loss to Boston. With Egor Demin unavailable, I expect Brooklyn to continue relying heavily on Randle's ability to initiate offense and create for others.
- 3/3 on our Randle picks this season! His combination of scoring volume, playmaking responsibilities, and consistent minutes gives him multiple paths to clear 24.5 PA. Happy to run it back once again!
📊 Research: @propsmadness
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#NBA | 2026-10-30 | Pistons vs. Nets
Ausar Thompson Over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists (+102 FD, -108 CZR, -115 DK)
- I'm extremely optimistic about Ausar's expanded playmaking role this season. Detroit has clearly been experimenting with using him as a secondary ball handler, allowing Cade Cunningham to operate off the ball more frequently.
- After his impressive 8-assist performance against Charlotte, head coach J.B. Bickerstaff praised Ausar's ability to read defenses and create for his teammates, calling him "a high-level playmaker when the ball's in his hands." Cade has also praised Ausar's passing ability and spoken about getting him more opportunities to initiate the offense.
- Excluding the game in which he got injured and the one where his minutes were limited following his return, Ausar played 33 and 29 minutes, generating 26 and 28 combined potential assists + rebound chances. That's exactly the kind of opportunity volume I want to see for this line.
- Jalen Duren is still OUT. His absence creates a significant rebounding void, and I expect Ausar to take on additional responsibilities on the glass while continuing to develop his role as a secondary offensive creator.
- 18/22 hit rate since the 2024-25 season when generating 20+ combined potential assists and rebound chances. His involvement in the two unrestricted games this season has been comfortably above that threshold.
- The matchup is another major reason I love this play. Brooklyn has been one of the most generous teams in the league when it comes to allowing assists, while remaining relatively average in rebounding. That's an ideal combination for someone who can contribute in both categories.
- With Duren unavailable, Ausar's growing playmaking responsibilities, and a favorable matchup against Brooklyn, I really like his chances of clearing 10.5 RA tonight!
📊 Research: @propsmadness
Use code "MELO" for 25% off your subscription.
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#NBA | 2026-10-30 | Wizards vs. Hornets
Anthony Davis Over 21.5 Points (-102 FD, -107 CZR, -114 DK) — 2.0u
🔥 We're going right back to AD for another 2.0u play!
- We've already cashed twice on AD this season, including his 29-point performance against these same Hornets just four days ago. Same line, better odds, and a matchup we've already seen him dominate. I'm more than happy to run it back!
- AD finished with 29 points in 36 minutes on 11/22 shooting against Charlotte, taking 22 shots and leading Washington in scoring. That's exactly the kind of offensive involvement we've been targeting since the beginning of the season.
- One of the most encouraging things from that game was his chemistry with Trae Young. After the game, Trae specifically talked about the need for better spacing when AD gets isolation opportunities. That's a great sign that the team recognizes how important it is to create favorable scoring situations for him.
- I still don't see either Diabaté or Kalkbrenner being able to consistently contain AD without getting into foul trouble. Charlotte has some interesting defensive pieces, but neither has the ideal combination of strength, mobility, and experience to deal with Davis for an entire game.
- We're also getting a home matchup this time, with Washington looking to bounce back after losing the previous meeting. I expect them to continue leaning heavily on AD, especially in half-court situations where his ability to create his own shot becomes crucial.
- Two straight cashes on AD, 29 points in this exact matchup, and we're getting 21.5 again at nearly even odds. I'm expecting another 25+ point performance tonight!
📊 Research: @propsmadness
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🏀 NBA Recap | October 28, 2026 | Season: 14-12 (-0.11u)
✅ Cooper Flagg O23.5 PTS (-120 MGM) — 1.0u
❌ Aaron Nesmith U15.5 PR (-120 MGM) — 1.0u
❌ Rudy Gobert O22.5 PR (-104 FD) — 1.0u
❌ Austin Reaves O33.5 PA (-108 FD) — 2.0u
A brutal 1-3 night (-3.17u).
- Cooper Flagg was our only winner, taking advantage of OKC's depleted defense and delivering exactly the scoring performance we expected.
- Austin Reaves was easily the biggest disappointment of the night. With Doncic out, we expected him to take over offensively, especially considering his incredible historical production in similar situations. Unfortunately, he fell well short of expectations on our 2.0u play.
- Nesmith and Gobert couldn't get their props home either, making this our toughest night of the season so far.
Tough night. On to the next one.
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#NBA | 2026-10-28 | Lakers vs. Clippers
Austin Reaves Over 33.5 Points + Assists (-120 FD, -125 CZR, -115 DK) - 2u
- With Luka Doncic OUT, everything should run through Austin Reaves tonight. I expect him to take over as the Lakers' primary offensive creator, with a massive increase in both scoring and playmaking responsibilities.
- 6/6 hit rate over the previous two seasons with 30%+ usage when at least one of LeBron or Luka was unavailable, averaging nearly 50 PA. That's an incredible historical sample and shows just how high his ceiling can be when he's given the keys to the offense.
- Reaves has already started this season on fire, even while sharing the floor with Luka. His PA numbers through the first four games:
29 PA vs. Warriors
37 PA vs. Clippers
33 PA vs. Jazz
33 PA vs. Blazers
- He already recorded 37 PA against the Clippers earlier this season with Doncic active. That's particularly encouraging considering how much more offensive responsibility he could have tonight.
- Reaves has been extremely efficient and aggressive offensively to start the season. Now, with the potential for significantly more touches, shot attempts, and playmaking opportunities, I expect his production to reach another level.
- He's already been producing around this line with Luka on the floor. Without him, I absolutely love Reaves' chances of delivering a massive PA performance tonight!
📊 Research: @propsmadness
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#NBA | 2026-10-28 | Mavericks vs. Thunder
Cooper Flagg Over 23.5 Points (-120 MGM, -121 CZR, -130 FD)
- I'm usually very cautious about targeting players against OKC, but tonight's situation is completely different. The Thunder are coming into Dallas severely shorthanded, missing several key pieces of their elite defensive system.
- Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso, and Cason Wallace are all OUT. OKC already has some size concerns in certain matchups, and losing Holmgren and Williams makes those problems even worse. They're also missing two of their best perimeter defenders.
- Flagg, on the other hand, has been absolutely outstanding since the preseason. His scoring production per minute and usage have both been extremely encouraging, and he's clearly becoming one of Dallas' primary offensive weapons.
- I honestly don't see anyone on OKC's available roster who can comfortably match up with Flagg. Kenrich Williams might be their best option, but I don't see him being able to contain Flagg for an entire game, especially with the Thunder's defensive rotation so depleted.
- We've already seen Flagg clear this line against tough individual matchups involving elite defenders like Amen Thompson and Giannis Antetokounmpo. That's particularly encouraging considering the defensive personnel he'll be facing tonight.
- With OKC missing so much defensive talent, I expect Dallas to lean heavily on Flagg's scoring ability. His usage, physical advantages, and offensive aggression give him a great opportunity to put together another big scoring performance.
- I expect Flagg to be extremely aggressive offensively tonight, and I really like his chances of clearing 23.5 points against this depleted Thunder defense!
📊 Research: @propsmadness
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#NBA | 2026-10-28 | Timberwolves vs. Warriors
Rudy Gobert Over 22.5 Points + Rebounds (-104 FD, -106 CZR, -107 DK)
- Anthony Edwards is OUT tonight. Historically, Gobert has been more productive without Ant on the floor. Edwards tends to use pick-and-roll situations primarily to create his own shots rather than consistently finding the rolling big man. Without him, I expect Gobert to get more opportunities to finish around the rim.
- But the biggest reason I love this play is the matchup. Golden State has been extremely vulnerable against traditional, low-usage centers. Their lack of size creates serious problems defending the paint, especially when they don't send additional help. And against centers who aren't primary scoring threats, that extra help rarely comes.
- Gobert recorded 32 and 38 PR against the Warriors last season without Edwards. He's already shown exactly how much damage he can do in this matchup when given the opportunity.
- Just look at what opposing centers have done against Golden State this season:
Walker Kessler: 35 PR
Khaman Maluach: 18 PR
Zach Edey: 18 PR (22 min)
- These aren't necessarily high-usage offensive players, yet they've been able to produce against Golden State's undersized frontcourt. That's exactly the type of matchup I want for Gobert.
- With Edwards unavailable, Gobert should have more opportunities offensively, while Golden State's lack of interior size gives him a favorable rebounding matchup. I expect him to be heavily involved around the basket on both ends.
- I'm expecting Gobert to dominate the paint tonight. Between the potential increase in scoring opportunities and his rebounding advantage, I really like his chances of clearing 22.5 PR!
📊 Research: @propsmadness
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#NBA | 2026-10-28 | Pacers vs. 76ers
Aaron Nesmith Under 15.5 Points + Rebounds (-120 MGM, -125 FD, -128 CZR)
- This play is primarily about minutes. Rick Carlisle was asked why Nesmith played only 20 minutes against Milwaukee, and his response was pretty straightforward: "He's got a 20-minute limit." With Nesmith still working his way back from a hamstring injury, I don't expect a significant increase in his playing time tonight.
- 26/26 hit rate over the previous two seasons when playing 17–23 minutes. That's an incredible historical sample, and his current minutes restriction puts him right in that range.
- Even if Haliburton and Nembhard end up missing the game, I don't expect Nesmith to suddenly become a high-usage offensive player. His role has never been about creating offense, and I don't see that changing just because Indiana is shorthanded.
- The matchup makes this under even more appealing. Nesmith will likely spend a significant portion of his minutes matched up against either Jaylen Brown or LeBron James. Both present a serious size and physicality disadvantage for him, making it a difficult environment to generate points and rebounds.
- With a clear minutes restriction, an unfavorable matchup, and an outstanding historical hit rate in this playing-time range, I really like Nesmith's chances of staying under 15.5 PR tonight!
📊 Research: @propsmadness
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🏀 NBA Recap | October 27, 2026 | Season: 13-9 (+3.06u)
✅ Julius Randle O24.5 PA (-114 FD) — 28 PA
- Randle delivers once again, finishing with 28 PA. 3/3 on Randle props this season! 🎯
On to the next one! 💪
#GamblingX #PlayerProps
Melo Props retweeted
#NBA | 2026-10-27 | Nets vs. Celtics
Julius Randle Over 24.5 Points + Assists (-114 FD, -120 CZR, -122 DK)
- We're going right back to Randle after cashing our first two plays on him this season! Same reasoning, same offensive role, and we're getting the original 24.5 line again.
- Jordi Fernandez has been extremely optimistic about Randle's playmaking ability, even stating, "I think that this could be his best playmaking year." He's clearly one of Brooklyn's primary offensive creators, and the ball has consistently been in his hands.
- Randle recorded 40 and 28 PA in his first two games, comfortably cashing both of our previous plays. His scoring and facilitating responsibilities have been exactly what we expected coming into the season.
- Against Indiana, Randle finished with just 17 PA in 24 minutes due to a massive blowout. Despite shooting an awful 2/8 from the field, he still managed 7 assists. With his usual minutes, he would've had a realistic chance of clearing 24.5 even on a terrible shooting night.
- 20/23 hit rate over the previous two seasons with similar usage and potential assist numbers. His current offensive role gives us every reason to expect that production to continue.
- Boston is coming off a back-to-back, while Brooklyn has had a day to rest. There's also a possibility that Paul George gets rested, which could make this matchup more manageable for the Nets. I'm expecting Brooklyn to be competitive enough to keep Randle on the floor for his usual minutes.
- Two straight cashes, a secure offensive role, and a return to the 24.5 line. I'm more than happy to run it back for a third time!
📊 Research: @propsmadness
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