Prospex*Agro

🇳🇱 Prospex*Agro at ECE Rotterdam 2026 🌾 📍 On 5–6 November, our brokers attended the 66th European Commodities Exchange at Rotterdam Ahoy, where grain and feed professionals from across the world came together to exchange market insights and make new connections. 👥 Representing Prospex*Agro in Rotterdam: Diana Karamanova, Mariia Panchuk, Natalia Logginova, Vlada Zhehulska, Nataliia Zakharova, Daria Keidaliuk and Olena Senkevych. 🤝 Thank you to everyone who took the time to meet with our team. It was great to catch up with familiar faces and meet new ones. We look forward to continuing the conversations started in Rotterdam! #ECERotterdam26 #GrainTrade

🇨🇳 China Lifts Corn Demand Forecast As Soybean And Edible Oil Outlooks Hold Steady 🌽 🌽 According to the November CASDE, China raised its forecast for industrial corn use and lifted last season’s estimate by 1 Mt to 86 Mt. Firm feed demand and state reserve buying could keep prices steady as harvest supplies increase. 🫛 Soybean imports are still forecast below last season’s revised level. Domestic trade remains slow as growers hold out for higher prices and processors buy cautiously. 🛢️ CASDE nudged last season’s edible oil production estimate up to 32.45 Mt, with higher rapeseed oil output offsetting a decline in sunflower oil output. Thin palm oil import margins and lingering Black Sea logistics disruptions weighed on imports. 💬 What factors are you watching for China’s grain, oilseed and vegetable oil imports in the coming months? #Corn #CASDE

🇲🇾 Malaysia’s Palm Oil Stocks Hit A Record Despite An Export Rebound 🌴 📦 According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), palm oil inventories rose for a seventh straight month in October. Crude palm oil output set a record, and crude stocks grew faster than total inventories. 🚢 Exports rebounded to a one-year high and beat expectations in a Reuters poll, while total stocks came in below the poll forecast of 3.75 million tonnes. 📉 Benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures traded at their lowest in more than eight months. Sunvin Group’s Anilkumar Bagani said palm oil may need to trade $100–$120 per tonne below soybean oil to keep attracting buyers. 💬 Which indicator will you watch most closely in Malaysia’s November palm oil data? #PalmOil #MPOB

🇪🇺 EU Corn Harvest Hits A Three-Decade Low As Imports Rise 🌽 🚢 According to the European Commission, EU corn imports rose sharply year on year while exports barely grew. Soft wheat exports edged up as imports fell, while durum wheat and barley both saw lower exports and higher imports. 🌽 USDA estimates the 2026/27 EU corn crop at 48.0 million tonnes, the smallest since 1994/95. Heat and drought during pollination hit France and Hungary particularly hard. The European Commission also cut its estimate of usable corn production from 48.3 to 47.0 million tonnes. 🌻 Sunflower seed imports rose sharply even as sunflower oil imports fell. Rapeseed imports held steady, while rapeseed oil was the only major vegetable oil to post an import gain. Soybean, soybean oil and palm oil imports all declined. 🌼 Looking ahead to 2027/28, Expana expects EU rapeseed plantings to fall 5% to 6.1 million hectares, with drought-hit France driving the downgrade. It also cut its estimate for this season’s EU soybean harvest to 2.1 million tonnes, down from 2.6 million tonnes in August. 💬 How do you expect EU corn imports to develop over the rest of the season? #EU #CornImports

🇺🇦 Smaller Corn Crop Drives Ukraine’s Grain Export Forecast Lower 📉 🌽 According to APK-Inform, a smaller corn crop prompted the consultancy to cut Ukraine’s grain harvest forecast to 63.7 million tonnes and its 2026/27 grain export forecast to 29.7 million tonnes. Corn accounted for most of the export downgrade. 🌾 Fieldwork is largely complete for wheat, barley and rapeseed, while sunflower and soybean harvests are nearing completion. Corn still has the most ground left to cover. 🚢 As of 6 November, Ukraine had exported 6.8 million tonnes of grains and pulses, down 31% year on year. Wheat and barley shipments fell 39% and 56%, respectively, while corn exports rose 6%. 🚆 Ukraine exported 378K tonnes of rapeseed in October, below planned volumes. According to PUSK, rail bottlenecks affecting corn shipments also delayed rapeseed loadings. 🛢️ Rapeseed oil trade moved in a different direction. European Commission data show that EU imports from Ukraine rose 44.9% year on year to 182,690 tonnes through 25 October, lifting Ukraine’s share of EU imports to nearly 82%. 💬 How do you see Ukraine’s corn and rapeseed shipments developing in the coming weeks? #Ukraine #Corn

🇧🇷🇦🇷 Record Soy Potential Meets Uneven Crop Conditions 🌱 🫛 Brazil’s soybean and first-crop corn planting remain ahead of last year. StoneX raised its soybean forecast to 184.95 Mt from 183.56 Mt, supported by better Mato Grosso yield prospects, and first-crop corn to 30.68 Mt from 29.28 Mt. Supply prospects are strengthening, though irregular northern rainfall and wet, cloudy southern conditions constrain fieldwork and growth, with localised replanting needed. 🌾 Brazil’s wheat harvest is well ahead of last year, but quality remains a concern. Rio Grande do Sul reports disappointing yields and quality, while Paraná’s harvested grain shows test weight and falling number below required standards. 🇦🇷 Argentina’s corn planting slightly leads last year, while sunflower still lags despite weekly gains. Rain supports establishment but restricts machinery access in wet areas of Buenos Aires, also delaying soybean planting. 🚜 Argentine wheat prospects remain generally favourable, with early yields of 3.5–4.5 t/ha in San Francisco, Córdoba. However, humidity is increasing fungal disease pressure, keeping crop protection central to preserving yield potential. 💬 Which deserves closer attention now: planting conditions or wheat quality? #Soybeans #CropProgress

🇺🇳 Ample Grain Supplies Meet Export Bottlenecks 🌾 🌍 FAO expects the second-largest cereal harvest on record. Stocks are building despite lower output, while trade contracts, highlighting the gap between global availability and supplies reaching international buyers. 📉 Demand offers limited support: FAO sees food consumption driving modest growth in cereal use, while feed use falls by 6.5 million tonnes. Industrial demand, particularly for maize-based ethanol, provides a counterweight. 🌾 Wheat stocks are accumulating in Ukraine and russia partly because of export disruptions. AMIS also reports improved harvest prospects, but weaker feed use and constrained Black Sea shipments leave the global balance more comfortable. 🌽 FAO forecasts maize trade to grow by 4.5 million tonnes, supported by ample Argentine supplies. AMIS adds that competitive South American exports are challenging US shipments, while stronger ethanol demand supports consumption. Stocks are nevertheless set to recover. 🫛 Soybeans diverge: AMIS sees utilization exceeding production and cut ending stocks to 67.9 million tonnes. Stronger crushing contrasts with reduced Chinese import expectations, combining a tighter balance with a softer trade outlook. 💬 Which factor will most influence trade flows this season: logistics, export competitiveness or import demand? #GrainMarkets #AgTrade

🇧🇷 Brazil’s Weekly Export Pickup Masks A Weaker Soybean Outlook 🚢 📈 Brazil’s shipment schedule points to a stronger opening week of November, led by soybean meal and corn. Soybeans show little weekly change, indicating that the pickup is uneven across commodities. 🫛 The monthly outlook tells a different story: soybean exports are forecast well below last November, while soybean meal is broadly steady and corn slightly higher. The sharp weekly increase in meal shipments therefore does not translate into stronger full-month exports, while corn leads the November outlook by volume. 💬 Which of these export flows will you be watching most closely through November? #Soybeans #Corn

🇺🇸🇨🇦 Canola Stands Out As Soybean And Corn Processing Ease 🌾 📉 September processing trends diverged across North America. US soybean crush weakened both month on month and year on year, while Canadian canola processing maintained strong annual growth despite a modest monthly decline. 🫛 Lower US soybean crush was accompanied by reduced crude and refined oil production, limiting fresh soybean oil supply. US canola crush increased, but oil output failed to match that growth, showing that higher seed throughput does not automatically translate into greater oil availability. 🌽 US corn processing and fuel alcohol use declined from August but remained slightly above last year. Feed co-product output fell on both comparisons, pointing to softer availability of these feed ingredients. 🇨🇦 Canada’s stronger annual canola crush supported domestic seed demand while lifting both oil and meal production. This contrasts with the annual decline in US soybean oil output, highlighting different supply trends across the two oilseed sectors. 💬 Which September processing trend matters most for your market? #Oilseeds #Corn

🇺🇦 Ukraine’s Sowing Advances As Export Bottlenecks Raise Stock Risks 🌾 🌱 Ukraine’s winter sowing continues, with wheat and triticale driving the largest weekly area gain. Rapeseed has exceeded its forecast area, rye is close to completion, and barley still has the furthest to go relative to its target. Progress is uneven across crops, with further cereal planting still needed. 🚢 Alongside preparations for the next harvest, logistics are constraining the current season’s trade outlook. FAS/Kyiv has lowered its MY2026/27 export estimates to 8.7 Mt for wheat, 2.0 Mt for barley and 10.2 Mt for corn, citing intensified Russian attacks on ports and inland transport infrastructure. 🌽 Corn highlights the gap between production and shipment prospects. FAS/Kyiv raised its production estimate to 33.5 Mt, but warns that storage shortages on individual farms could leave some corn overwintering in fields, potentially reducing the final crop. 📦 Lower exports are expected to push ending grain stocks to record levels. Although sufficient temporary storage is reportedly available nationally, local capacity constraints remain a risk. For the market, moving grain out remains central to managing the accumulating supply. 💬 Which logistics developments will you be watching most closely for Ukraine’s grain exports? #Ukraine #GrainTrade

🇺🇸 Soybeans Lead Export Inspections As Corn Harvest Gains Speed 🌾 🚢 Soybeans remain the strongest performer in US export inspections, with weekly and cumulative volumes well above last year despite a slight weekly decline. Corn’s rebound leaves both annual comparisons negative, while wheat’s sharp slowdown adds to an already weak cumulative performance. 🌽 Corn harvesting reached 74% by November 1, advancing 14 percentage points in a week. The gap against the five-year average narrowed by half to 3 points, easing the overall harvest delay. Progress remains uneven, with Iowa still 13 points behind its usual pace. 🇲🇽 Faster harvesting and absent Chinese corn demand overshadowed the USDA’s announcement of 1.7 million tonnes in corn sales to Mexico. These commitments support future exports, but a sustained improvement in inspections is needed to narrow the gap with last year. 🫛 China also purchased 136K tonnes of US soybeans, extending recent buying. This adds support to the strongest export segment, while limited Chinese purchases of other US crops leave the broader demand picture mixed. 🔎 Which will matter more for US corn in the coming weeks: harvest progress or fresh export demand? #USDA #GrainExports

🇺🇦 Ukraine’s Harvest Advances As Stocks Build And Exports Lag 🌾 🚜 Corn remains the main unfinished crop, while sunflower and soybean harvesting are approaching completion. With early grain crops largely secured, attention is shifting to moving supplies and the economics of finishing the remaining harvest. 📦 According to the State Statistics Service, grain stocks reached 20.7 MMT on October 1, up 6 MMT year on year. Meanwhile, State Customs Service data show seasonal grain and pulse exports at 6.48 MMT by October 30, versus 9.17 MMT a year earlier. Larger inventories alongside slower exports put the focus on Ukraine’s ability to move available supply. 🚢 Logistics add pressure. Reported weather disruptions on the Danube and shortages of food-grade tank wagons constrain shipping options, even as grain exports by rail recover. 🌻 Sunflower faces a separate profitability challenge. PUSK warns that low purchasing prices could leave some remaining fields uneconomic to harvest. The final stage of harvesting therefore depends on both field conditions and growers’ margins. 💬 Which factor are you watching most closely for Ukraine’s market in November: harvest completion, export logistics or domestic demand? #Ukraine #Grains

🇧🇷🇦🇷 Strong Crop Prospects Face Weather And Trade Risks 🌦️ 🌱 Brazil’s soybean planting is ahead of last year, while first-crop corn remains near its previous-season pace. Argentina’s corn sowing holds a slight annual lead, but sunflower planting still lags despite weekly gains. 🫛 The USDA attaché forecasts Brazil’s soybean crop at 184 million tonnes, below the official USDA estimate of 186 million. Growing crushing and biodiesel demand support domestic consumption alongside the large supply outlook. 🌧️ Weather remains a risk: Serasa estimates production could reach 163.6 million tonnes under strong El Niño conditions versus 181.2 million under neutral weather. These are scenarios, not confirmed losses. 🌾 Brazil’s faster wheat harvest is exposing quality concerns, including low test weights and rain damage. Argentina’s outlook is stronger: Rosario raised its crop estimate to 23.8 million tonnes from 21 million, although excessive harvest rainfall could threaten quality. 🏭 Oil World expects Argentina’s soybean crushing to increase by 2 million tonnes to 43.8 million, supported by soymeal demand. Meanwhile, EUDR traceability hurdles could put up to 4 million tonnes of Brazilian soymeal shipments to the EU at risk, potentially creating opportunities for Argentina’s VISEC-traced supplies. 🔎 Which factor are you watching most closely: weather, grain quality or trade flows? #Brazil #Argentina

🇪🇺 Corn Imports Surge As EU Trade Flows Diverge 🌾 🚢 EU grain trade shows contrasting trends: corn imports are rising strongly, while soft wheat exports remain broadly steady. Barley and durum exports are losing ground, with imports of both crops increasing. 🌽 The European Commission’s autumn outlook puts this corn import growth into context: EU production is forecast at 48.5 million tonnes, below the five-year average, while full-season imports are projected to reach 25 million tonnes. Lower domestic availability is increasing the need for overseas supplies. 🌻 Oilseed imports are also diverging. Sunflower seed purchases are expanding sharply, while soybean and rapeseed arrivals remain slightly below last season. The stronger sunflower seed flow contrasts with declining sunflower oil imports. 🛢️ Rapeseed oil is the exception among the oils shown, with imports rising as soybean, sunflower and palm oil arrivals decline. Together, these shifts highlight selective import demand across commodities, creating different opportunities for suppliers. 💬 Which of these trade flows will you be watching most closely in the coming months? #EU #Corn

🇿🇦 Record Crop Outlook Meets A Shift Toward Sunflower 🌻 🌽 South Africa’s maize forecast has risen further into record territory, driven entirely by white maize. Production is expected to exceed last year’s crop by 5.78%, strengthening the supply outlook. Soybeans are also heading for a record harvest, while their forecast and sunflower output remain unchanged. 🌾 Winter crop forecasts moved lower across wheat, barley and canola. Wheat faces a smaller production base, with planted area at its lowest since 2015/16. Canola, however, is still forecast to deliver a record crop despite the downward revision. 🌻 Planting intentions point to a different crop mix next season: sunflower is set for a substantial expansion, while maize area contracts, mainly through white maize. Planned sunflower plantings would approach the 828K ha planted in 1999. Soybean area is expected to remain broadly stable, making sunflower the clearest expansion story. 🔎 The key contrast is between this season’s record summer crop outlook and next season’s reduced maize planting intentions. These plans remain preliminary and may change before planting. 💬 Which shift matters most for your outlook on South Africa’s grain and oilseed markets? #SouthAfrica #CropOutlook

🇺🇦 Ukraine’s Harvest Is Far From Over For Corn 🌽 🌾 Ukraine’s harvest is entering its final stages for most major crops, but corn remains the main unfinished task. Wheat, barley, peas and rapeseed are effectively complete, while soybeans and sunflower are approaching the finish. With most corn acreage still unharvested, the final production picture remains open. 🌱 Winter sowing shows a similar contrast: rapeseed has exceeded the planned area and rye is nearly complete, while wheat and triticale account for the largest remaining acreage. Barley is the least advanced relative to its target, keeping the focus on completing cereal planting. 🚢 Grain and pulse exports reached 6.225 million tonnes by October 26, including 1.004 million tonnes shipped during October. Corn stands out at 2.135 million tonnes, already above the 1.722 million tonnes reported by October 31 last season. Wheat and barley remain below the previous season’s reported totals, although the comparison dates differ. 🚛 Export logistics also deserve attention. Reuters reported on October 23 that Ukraine was discussing moving grain truck customs checks inside Poland and Slovakia to reduce exposure to russian drone attacks. These remain discussions, with implementation still to be confirmed. 💬 Which will you be watching most closely in November: corn harvesting, winter crop establishment or export logistics? #Ukraine #GrainTrade

🇺🇸 Soybeans Lead Export Inspections As Harvest Pressure Builds 🚢 🫛 US soybean export inspections strengthened both week on week and year on year, extending their season-to-date lead over last year. Yet stronger shipment activity has not prevented price weakness: with 79% of the soybean harvest complete, ample new-crop supplies continue to weigh on the market. 🌽 Corn inspections weakened across all comparisons, leaving the seasonal pace behind last year. Meanwhile, the corn harvest reached 60% completion, exceeding trade expectations and adding supply pressure as export shipment momentum slows. 🌾 Wheat inspections also declined, with the deepest season-to-date shortfall among the three crops. Expectations of Black Sea export availability added pressure, keeping futures near their lowest level since early July. ⚖️ The clearest contrast is in soybeans: stronger export movement is helping absorb incoming supplies, while corn and wheat show weaker shipment momentum. For now, harvest pressure continues to weigh on corn and soybean prices. 💬 Which will you be watching more closely in the coming weeks: US export shipments or harvest progress? #GrainMarkets #USDA

🇪🇺 EU Summer Crop Yields Slip Again As Harvests Confirm Drought Damage 🌾 📉 October’s JRC MARS outlook lowers EU yield forecasts for maize, sunflower and soybeans, leaving all below their five-year averages. Soybeans show the deepest shortfall, while sunflower records the largest monthly downgrade despite remaining closest to its historical average. 🌽 Maize harvests are confirming drought losses across western and central Europe. In Germany, some grain maize was diverted to silage to compensate for fodder shortages. In Italy, maize harvesting finished 10–20 days earlier than usual, with grain maize yields forecast 15% below the five-year average. 🫛 Italy’s soybean harvest is also confirming weak expectations, with yields projected 17% below the five-year average. In Slovenia and Croatia, soybean and sunflower forecasts remain well below last year’s already low levels, highlighting continued pressure on regional oilseed performance. 🌻 Romania and Bulgaria offer a brighter picture, with maize and sunflower prospects above their five-year averages. These regional differences make the location of harvest losses important when assessing availability across the EU. 🇺🇦 Beyond the EU, Ukraine’s maize harvest is about 20% complete, with early yields matching expectations. Maize and soybean yield forecasts remain unchanged, making further harvest progress worth monitoring alongside the EU’s weaker results. 💬 Which regional harvest results are you watching most closely for maize and oilseed availability? #Grains #Oilseeds

🇨🇦 Canada’s Smaller Harvest Keeps Supplies Ample As Demand Shifts 🌾 📊 Canada’s principal field crop production is forecast to fall 5% from last year’s record, but larger carry-in stocks should keep total supplies broadly unchanged. The key differences lie in crop quality, export demand and the growing pull from domestic processing. 🌾 Wheat faces a tighter balance alongside strong early shipments. Licensed-system exports through September were up 25% y/y, while just 77% of CWRS samples reached the top two grades, versus a five-year average of 92%. Durum demand also puts quality in focus: average sample protein was 13.4%, compared with 15% historically, while demand for higher-protein blending supplies remains firm. 🏭 Canola shows the clearest shift toward domestic use. Crush is forecast at a record 13.9 MMT, up 8% y/y, as processing expansion redirects seed away from exports. August crush was already 43% above last year, reinforcing the stronger domestic demand outlook. 🌽 Corn’s record crop should support an export recovery, although weaker US price expectations weigh on the outlook. Soybeans also show improving export prospects, with stocks recovering but remaining below average. Barley faces softer Chinese import demand, while ample flaxseed supplies leave room for further stock accumulation despite lower production. 💬 Which factor will matter most for Canadian crop trade this season: quality, overseas demand or domestic processing? #Canada #GrainTrade

🇧🇷 Brazil’s Corn Gains Ground As Europe Seeks Alternative Supplies 🌽 📊 ANEC’s shipment schedule points to a weekly acceleration across soybeans, soybean meal and corn, led by meal’s strongest relative increase. Monthly estimates show a clearer divide: meal and corn exports are expected to exceed last year, while soybeans remain broadly unchanged. 🚢 Europe is becoming a stronger outlet for Brazilian corn. Stag International forecasts October shipments to the region at 1.65 million tonnes, roughly eight times last year’s level, as reduced Ukrainian shipments and a smaller EU crop create room for alternative suppliers. 🌍 EU corn imports have risen 40% this season through mid-October. Although the US remains the leading supplier, Stag sees Brazil and Argentina gaining a competitive edge, with current FOB premiums suggesting their advantage could last through January, potentially into February. 💬 How do you expect Europe’s corn sourcing mix to evolve in the coming months? #Corn #Brazil