Just a bloke sharing what he has bets on.
Perth, Western Australia
Joined June 2021
- Tweets2.4K
- Following162
- Followers3K
- Likes1.9K
Pinned Tweet
I've created something for fun that has quietly turned into a bit of a monster.
It’s called Sportsball Stats.
The model I built is currently sitting at:
🏀 NBL: 17–7 | +12.46u
🏈 NFL: 46–50 | +14.36u
Past performance isn't a reliable indicator of future results.
More 👇
The NBA model has its first losing day in 4 days, going 2-3 and -1.3u.
Got very lucky with the Jazz covering by 0.5, but unlucky the Kings missed by 1.5.
Player props went 5-3 and +1.32u. Good bounce back after yesterday.
That makes it a profit on the day of +0.02u!
The NBL model doesn't love anything for tonight at this stage.
See you tomorrow for more!
610
The NBA model has quietly put together three winning days in a row.
Still playing catch up after the start of the season, so there's plenty of work to do, but these are some positive signs.
Player props are still a work in progress, going 1/5 today, so plenty of room for improvement there.
The model has already identified 5 bets for tomorrow's NBA slate.
Tune in to see if we can make it four green days in a row!
1
734
BUF@MIN Recap || 2/3 · +1.23u
The NFL model was right on this one, giving the edge to BUF and correctly picking the Bills -3.5.
Josh Allen couldn't find the end zone, but Carson Wentz under attempts at plus money was a nice winner.
Overall, +1.23u for the game.
✅ Bills -3.5
❌ Josh Allen ATD (0)
✅ Carson Wentz u2.5 rush atts (1)
The NFL model gives the #Vikings only 33% to beat the #Bills. The market has them at 39%.
The gap is almost entirely the Carson Wentz factor. The market is pricing in a modest bump with Wentz under center for an injured Kyler Murray. The NFL model still sees BUF by roughly 5–6 points (projected 25–19 range).
The line has moved to Bills -3. Our model still sees value on the Bills covering.
The matchup is extreme:
- Minnesota allows 0.6 passing TDs to QBs (32nd / best) and just 3.1 receptions to TEs (also 32nd).
- Buffalo allows the most receiving TDs to WRs in the league (1.6) and the 2nd-most pass yards to QBs (269).
Both teams are 6-1. The Bills score 33.3 points a game. The Vikings allow 13.3. Something has to give.
Who you got on #MNF?
1
665
The NFL model gives the #Vikings only 33% to beat the #Bills. The market has them at 39%.
The gap is almost entirely the Carson Wentz factor. The market is pricing in a modest bump with Wentz under center for an injured Kyler Murray. The NFL model still sees BUF by roughly 5–6 points (projected 25–19 range).
The line has moved to Bills -3. Our model still sees value on the Bills covering.
The matchup is extreme:
- Minnesota allows 0.6 passing TDs to QBs (32nd / best) and just 3.1 receptions to TEs (also 32nd).
- Buffalo allows the most receiving TDs to WRs in the league (1.6) and the 2nd-most pass yards to QBs (269).
Both teams are 6-1. The Bills score 33.3 points a game. The Vikings allow 13.3. Something has to give.
Who you got on #MNF?
The NFL model ends the day going 3-5 for -2.26u.
Now locks in the third consecutive losing week after opening the season with six straight winning weeks. Still profitable on the year and I'm still making adjustments when new variables appear (e.g. Brissett into BAL).
Be nice if BUF help out tomorrow to trim that number.
Meanwhile, the NBA model went 1-0, making it two profitable days in a row.
Still work to do on the season number, but it's a positive step in the right direction.
The player props chipped in too, finishing 4-3 (+0.55u).
566
The NBA model has another small winning day. 3-2 and +0.78u. Let’s hope we can keep stacking small wins. Have we turned a corner? Too soon to tell.
Props went 1-1 for a small loss.
Positive day overall!
1
1
680
Today’s recap is much the same.
Model very close to even but not quite getting the chocolates.
Props smashed today but a couple of tough beats there too.
The model actually picked 6/9 correct lines today, so that’s positive.
Rough beat on Mavs who scored 5 points in the last 7 mins.
Jaylen Brown also checked out with 5 mins left needing one PRA.
Also a fun feature is the “Sportsball Big Swing”. These are fun multis that won’t win everyday but what’s punting without a touch of degeneracy? Odds on this one was about $4.25.
726
CNS v ILL Recap || +0.95u
✅ Hawks +3.5
The NBL model actually had Illawarra winning outright, but taking the extra points was the safe play.
A nice start to Round 8 after sitting out last night!
#NBL27
691
Another day, another close loss.
Model goes 4-6 for -1.81u.
Props go 6-4 for +1.0u.
So far the NBL success hasn't translated to the NBA.
I track the wins and losses because the results matter. But this is also a genuine learning experience. Building the site, testing the model, and finding ways to improve it has been something that's been a lot of fun.
There’s plenty still to learn and plenty to improve. I’ll keep working at it and see where this journey takes goes.
650
The NBA model has another middling day: 3-4 || -0.96u
But player props copped a belting. OKC coming to play really hurt the day losing -4u on the props and -1u on the CLE line.
I’d like to think a decent day is just around the corner but honestly, who knows!
I’ll keep playing with it and tightening up filters or criteria where necessary.
Long season and we are just getting started.
669
CHI@SEA Recap || +3.53u
No model bet in that game but we go 4/4 on the props!
✅ Sam Roush u10.5 rec yds (0)
✅ Jadarian Price u30.5 rush yds (29)
✅ Sam Darnold o0.5 interceptions (1)
✅ Sam Darnold o4.5 longest rush (14)
#NFL #GamblingX
1
1,002
Seattle has lost three games this season by a combined 8 points (margins of 2, 3, and 3).
Chicago is 5-2 and still getting +3.5 at Lumen Field on #MNF.
The Bears can score, but in their two losses they managed just 3 (in the rain) v MIN and 7 @ GB.
Seattle held the Chiefs to 3 points on MNF in Week 7.
Seattle is without LT Charles Cross and WR Rashid Shaheed. Chicago is without TE Cole Kmet.
Our model has Seahawks by 4.2. The line is Seahawks 3.5.
Which side are you on?
#NFL
1
724
MEL v NZB Recap || +0.92u
✅ United u99.5 team total
We finish the day on a high.
The NBL model goes 6-3 for +2.63u making it 4/6 profitable weeks.
Season record: 50-41 (+12.56u)
Still a long way to go before we know if the model has a real edge long term, but for the NBL at least, the model is staying profitable! 📈
#NBL27
1
1
670
A tough day today in the NFL, specifically for the model.
Sides and totals got smoked. Props kept the day from being a complete write-off.
We were on ATL and CLE TT, with both failing to even score a TD! Just the way it went today.
Model:
1–7 | -6.10u
Props:
14–11 | +2.56u
NBA went 1-1.
1
690
ADL v BRI Recap || 0/1 · -1.00u
❌ 36ers -8.5
Not a lot you can do when the team you back shoots 19% from deep.
The NBL model will have a winning week with one game to go but it’d be nice to finish on a high!
675
SEM v TAS Recap || 1/1 · +0.95u
✅ JackJumpers +6.5
Another easy winner.
NBA has been a problem so far but NBL is 5-2 this weekend and +2.71u.
49-40 and 12.64u for the season.
618
31 Oct NBA Recap
4-4 for -0.41u.
Suns lost by 7, missing the final shot.
Celtics managed 125 but had 78 at half time!
That’s NBA for you!
1
637
It’s always the shortest leg that gets you isn’t it?!
Bit of a nothing day but hopefully a sign of things to come.
Made a few changes in the last 24 hours. Let’s see how we go on a big slate tomorrow.
558
I'll take 0.01u profit over yesterday's debacle any day of the week.
A wise man once said, "Can't go broke making profit."
Right @JustTheTipAUS?
NFL 🏈
Model: 0-1 -1.00u
Props: 1-0 +0.88u
NBA 🏀
Model: 2-1 +0.28u
Props: 1-1 -0.15u
NBL up soon!
1
1
875