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Risk came back on Wednesday, and it came back through the AI trade. SpaceX ($SPCX ) reported third-quarter revenue of $14.6B and $4.4B of net income, its first profit as a public company. The stock ran about 10%. Super Micro ($SMCI ) added 9.6% on guidance above consensus. The Philadelphia semiconductor index snapped an eight-session losing streak, its longest in 18 years. The S&P 500 closed up 0.59% at 7,757. The Dow added 0.69% to 52,857 and the Nasdaq led at +1.05%. Look under the surface and the move was narrow. Technology (XLK) +1.7% and industrials ($XLI ) +0.9% did the work. Health care, staples and utilities lagged. The Russell 2000 managed only +0.27%. AT&T (T) fell 6.3% despite a revenue beat, and Netflix (NFLX) lost 5% on soft fourth-quarter guidance. Rates offered nothing. The 10-year finished at 5.145%, up 3 basis points. The 2-year at 4.82%. WTI settled $97.15, Brent $108.82, gold $4,150. If you are managing money here, the question is whether one strong print turns a bounce into a trend while the 10-year sits above 5%. Tesla and Meta report tonight. The Fed decides October 28.

[QM WIRE] OPENAI SAYS AI AGENTS RUNNING ON ITS MODELS WEAKENED INTERNAL SAFETY MONITORING WHILE EXECUTING TASKS, AND ONE AGENT LATER DENIED DOING SO, PER ABC NEWS $MSFT $QQQ $HACK

Mike McGlone Sr. Commodity Strategist @business xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1dKrPrXMV…

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Dr. Patrick Bell AI Matters xitter.cf/i/broadcasts/1dxYlaELQ…

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Average monthly power bills went from about $121 in 2021 to about $156 in 2025. Who should carry data center power costs?

QUASAR MARKETS · DAILY MARKET BRIEFING Wednesday, October 21, 2026 · What to think about today THE BIG PICTURE The AI trade gets its loudest stress test yet tonight. SpaceX and Super Micro just blew past estimates, so optimism is running hot, but Meta and Tesla report after the close, Netflix already stumbled, and Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson calls market breadth "terrible." Meanwhile gold sits near records and the 10-year yield is parked above 5 percent, a tape that looks euphoric and nervous at the same time. So here is the question to carry into the open: are tonight's prints the proof the AI build-out is paying off, or the moment narrow leadership finally cracks? AI's big test lands after the bell AI and Tech · $META SpaceX set the bar first, crushing estimates on cloud and AI demand, and Super Micro raised its revenue outlook sharply, lifting chip names in premarket trading. Now Meta and Tesla report after the close, with Lam Research, Texas Instruments and IBM also on the slate. The real question is whether heavy AI spending is finally translating into returns or simply piling up as cost, a debate that touches every name in the Quasar Markets AI Sector Tracker. Because the market is leaning so hard on a handful of leaders, the reaction will set the tone for the rest of earnings season. What to watch: Meta's capex guidance and Tesla's margins after the bell. A clear miss from either would reprice the whole AI complex. Netflix cracks on an ad warning Earnings · $NFLX Netflix beat on profit, posting EPS of $0.87 against an $0.82 estimate, yet revenue came in a touch light and the company lowered its 2026 ad revenue guidance, sending shares down roughly 6 percent. After a long run higher, the growth story is bumping into a ceiling, and that matters because Netflix has been treated as a core megacap winner. In other words, this is the first real crack in the earnings wall, and the tape is punishing any hint of a slowdown. Track the follow-through on the Quasar Markets Earnings Calendar as the rest of the week reports. The tension: whether traders read the drop as Netflix-specific or as the first sign of broader streaming and ad-market fatigue. The long end keeps climbing Fed · $TLT The 10-year Treasury yields 5.12 percent even with the Fed near neutral at 3.75 to 4 percent and CME FedWatch pricing about 85 percent odds of a hold at the October 28 decision. The problem is at the long end, where rates keep grinding higher on heavy supply and sticky inflation worries rather than on Fed action. As a result, discount rates rise just as equities need earnings to justify rich valuations, a squeeze worth following on the Quasar Markets Fed & Rates Dashboard. What to watch: whether the 10-year pushes decisively above 5.12 percent heading into the October 28 FOMC decision. Oil firms as Iran stalls talks Geopolitics · $USO Reuters reports that Iran is dragging out talks with the United States ahead of the November 3 midterms while bracing for possible renewed strikes. Consequently, energy is bid, with Brent pushing above $110 and WTI trading near $100. That link matters because higher crude feeds straight back into the inflation and rates story driving the long end, so a geopolitical shock would not stay contained to oil. The tension: a diplomatic breakdown or a strike would spike crude and complicate the Fed's already narrow path. THE QUESTION FOR YOU Meta and Tesla report tonight. Which print are you watching more closely, and would a strong beat convince you the AI trade still has room to run, or is Netflix's ad warning the signal you trust? Tell us what you are watching into the close.

[QM WIRE] U.S. 10 YEAR TREASURY YIELD HOLDS NEAR 5.1% AS MARKETS PRICE 85% PROBABILITY OF FED HOLDING NEXT WEEK AND 75% CHANCE OF DECEMBER RATE HIKE $TLT $IEF $SPY $UUP [QM WIRE] WALL STREET FUTURES ADVANCE AS STRONG CORPORATE EARNINGS LIFT SENTIMENT, S&P 500 FUTURES GAIN 0.2% AND NASDAQ 100 RISES 0.7% $SPY $QQQ $DIA [QM WIRE] SPACEX SHARES SURGE MORE THAN 8% PREMARKET FOLLOWING STRONG Q3 REVENUE GROWTH AS SUPER MICRO COMPUTER JUMPS NEARLY 12% ON UPBEAT RESULTS $SPCX $SMCI $QQQ [QM WIRE] NETFLIX SHARES PLUNGE 6.5% PREMARKET FOLLOWING DISAPPOINTING FORECAST WHILE AT&T FALLS 4.1% DESPITE EARNINGS BEAT $NFLX $T [QM WIRE] CRUDE OIL CLIMBS TOWARD $100 A BARREL, HIGHEST SINCE SEPTEMBER 17 AS REPORTED TANKER ATTACKS IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ RAISE GLOBAL SUPPLY CONCERNS $USO $BNO $XLE [QM WIRE] FRENCH 10 YEAR GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD SURGES ABOVE 5% TO 24 YEAR HIGH AS FISCAL PRESSURES AND CIVIL UNREST DRIVE SPREAD OVER GERMAN BUNDS TO 160 BASIS POINTS $EWQ $FXE $VGK [QM WIRE] EURO WEAKENS TO NEAR $1.122 AS FRENCH BORROWING COSTS SURGE AND RISING GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS PRESSURE EUROPEAN FINANCIAL MARKETS $FXE $UUP $EWQ [QM WIRE] U.S. MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS PLUNGE 5.3% FOR SEVENTH CONSECUTIVE WEEK, LOWEST SINCE JANUARY 2025 AS PURCHASE APPLICATIONS FALL 7.3% $XHB $ITB $DHI $LEN [QM WIRE] U.S. 30 YEAR MORTGAGE RATE DECLINES 9 BASIS POINTS TO 7.41%, FIRST WEEKLY DROP IN 11 WEEKS AS ELEVATED BORROWING COSTS CONTINUE TO PRESSURE HOUSING DEMAND $XHB $ITB $TLT [QM WIRE] INDIA INFRASTRUCTURE OUTPUT SURGES 7.9% ANNUALLY IN SEPTEMBER, STRONGEST GROWTH SINCE NOVEMBER 2023 AS COAL PRODUCTION JUMPS 10.7% AND IRON ORE OUTPUT RISES 18.4% $INDA $EPI [QM WIRE] INDIA'S SENSEX SLIPS 0.2% TO 73,710 AS FINANCIAL SHARES WEAKEN AND HIGHER OIL PRICES PRESSURE MARKETS WHILE TECHNOLOGY STOCKS ADVANCE $INDA $EPI $USO [QM WIRE] JIO PLATFORMS IPO FULLY SUBSCRIBED WITHIN TWO HOURS OF OPENING AS INVESTOR DEMAND FOR RELIANCE INDUSTRIES DIGITAL SERVICES UNIT ACCELERATES $INDA $EPI [QM WIRE] SOUTH AFRICA RETAIL SALES RISE 3.3% ANNUALLY IN AUGUST, BEATING 3% FORECAST AS CLOTHING AND SPECIALTY RETAILERS DRIVE CONSUMER SPENDING $EZA [QM WIRE] HONG KONG HANG SENG FALLS 0.9% TO 23,652, LOWEST IN 15 WEEKS AS CATL SHARES PLUNGE NEARLY 10% AND TECHNOLOGY STOCKS FACE SELLING PRESSURE $EWH $KWEB $MCHI [QM WIRE] BELGIUM CONSUMER CONFIDENCE FALLS TO MINUS 13 IN OCTOBER FROM MINUS 10, WEAKEST IN 18 MONTHS AS HOUSEHOLDS GROW MORE PESSIMISTIC ABOUT FINANCES AND ECONOMY $EWK $FXE [QM WIRE] GREECE CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS EXPANDS TO €1.743 BILLION IN AUGUST FROM €1.210 BILLION A YEAR EARLIER, LARGEST AUGUST SURPLUS SINCE 2015 $GREK $FXE [QM WIRE] GEORGIA CENTRAL BANK HOLDS POLICY RATE AT 8.25% AS SEPTEMBER INFLATION REACHES 5.6%, WELL ABOVE 3% TARGET WHILE 2026 GDP GROWTH FORECAST RISES TO 7.2% [QM WIRE] LATVIA PRODUCER INFLATION ACCELERATES TO 3.1% IN SEPTEMBER FROM 2.7% AS HIGHER ENERGY AND MANUFACTURING COSTS DRIVE PRICE PRESSURES $FXE [QM WIRE] ICELAND UNEMPLOYMENT FALLS TO 5.7% IN SEPTEMBER FROM 6.8%, LOWEST IN THREE MONTHS AS EMPLOYMENT RISES [QM WIRE] SLOVENIA UNEMPLOYMENT HOLDS AT 4.4% IN AUGUST AS NUMBER OF JOBLESS WORKERS DECLINES BY 1,076 FROM A YEAR EARLIER $FXE [QM WIRE] CROATIA REGISTERED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE REMAINS AT 3.4% FOR THIRD CONSECUTIVE MONTH AS TOTAL EMPLOYMENT DECLINES 0.6% $FXE [QM WIRE] MEXICAN PESO FALLS 0.45% TO LEAD CURRENCY LOSSES AS INDIAN RUPEE DECLINES 0.28% AND EURO SLIPS 0.13% AGAINST BROADER DOLLAR STRENGTH $EWW $FXE $UUP FOR MORE INFORMATION: QuasarMarkets.com

Tesla and Meta both report after the close, consensus $0.45 and $5.94 on about $63.3B of revenue, with IBM at $2.87 and Texas Instruments at $2.42 landing the same hour. That is the whole risk event for the tape. Brent is up 1.4% to about $110.40 after a supertanker struck a mine south of Hormuz; Kpler counts at least 18 vessel attacks in two weeks. EIA crude stocks at 10:30 ET against a consensus draw of roughly 300,000 barrels, then the 20-year auction at 1:00 ET with the prior stop at 5.42%. No Fed speakers. Blackout for the October 27-28 meeting started Saturday the 17th, and Kalshi has 86% on a hold against 13% on a hike after September's 25bp move to 3.75-4.00%. The 10-year sits at 5.12%, the 2-year near 4.79%. Asia led overnight, Kospi up 3.3%, and Nasdaq futures are up about 0.7%.

WASHINGTON, Wednesday October 21 Congress has left town. Neither chamber votes again until Monday November 9, six days after the midterms. The House is in a district work period. The Senate stands adjourned but for pro forma sessions, the next Thursday at 9:00 AM. The president's published day: Executive Time at 8:00 AM, pool call at 9:00, Oval Office policy meetings at 11:00 and 12:30. Then nothing timed until a 7:00 PM rally at the T. Ed Garrison Arena in Pendleton, South Carolina. Travel both ways is published with no time announced. Third rally night running, after Kansas on Monday and North Carolina on Tuesday. Waiting on the Senate calendar: a 5:30 PM cloture vote on November 9 on the motion to proceed to Calendar No. 453, H.R. 2347, which the Senate Cloakroom calls the legislative vehicle for permitting reform. Sixty votes needed, House text unsettled, and the continuing resolution expires December 11. The read: the only instruments working in Washington today are a plane and a pen. The pen has produced six presidential actions in 30 days. The floor has produced nothing, and will not until the votes are counted. Permitting sits upstream of energy and transmission capex: $XLE $XLU

Why a huge option premium can be a trap, with Dr. Alan Ellman In the mid-1990s Dr. Alan Ellman saw the big premiums on Taser and started selling monthly covered calls on it. Taser's stock swung hard on every police-precinct study, which is exactly why the premium was so large. The price kept sinking, and he lost a great deal of money. His lesson: "The reason why people are attracted to these double and triple leveraged securities is the dollar amount of the premium, because of the high implied volatility of that underlying security." Dr. Alan Ellman is the president of @thebcinvestor #CoveredCalls #OptionsTrading #QuasarMarkets

The Dow closed up 531 points, +1.02%. The Nasdaq closed down 0.02%. Same session. That is rotation, not a rally. Money came out of the AI complex and went into health care, small caps and rate-sensitive defensives. Health care printed an all-time high. XLV rose 2.2% and Eli Lilly ($LLY ) gained 4.7% to a record. The Russell 2000 added 1.65%, with advancers beating decliners 2.51-to-1 on the NYSE. The other side of the ledger: CoreWeave ($CRWV ) hit a 17-month low on data-center debt worries, and Meta (META) fell more than 2% to $689 for its fifth straight down day. If you manage money, the breadth matters more than the index print. The S&P closed up 0.29% while the average stock did far better than that, which tells you where the crowding still is. Watching Meta's report Wednesday, October 21, after the close.

[QM WIRE] SPACEX Q3 REVENUE SURGES 161% TO $14.58B VS $12.87B ESTIMATE, NET INCOME HITS $4.40B VS $1.88B, ADJUSTED EBITDA REACHES $8.81B VS $6.59B, OPERATING INCOME $2.79B VS $2.24B, AI REVENUE $7.56B VS $6.3B, CONNECTIVITY REVENUE $5.25B VS $4.86B, SPACE REVENUE $1.77B VS $1.43B, TOTAL CAPEX $19.59B INCLUDING $16.44B IN AI SPENDING, TOTAL COSTS AND EXPENSES $11.78B VS $11.23B $SPCX FOR MORE INFORMATION: QuasarMarkets.com

[QM WIRE] ANTHROPIC S-1 REVEALS RAPID GROWTH AND ROUGHLY $450 BILLION IN CLOUD COMPUTING COMMITMENTS OVER SEVEN TO TEN YEARS, WITH COMPUTE SPENDING SET TO TOP $600 BILLION, PER WSJ $AMZN $GOOGL $MSFT

Why the Fed shouldn't hold off | @Bubba_Trading @qmbigbeat asks Todd "Bubba" Horwitz whether the Fed should hold off, with jobs, commercial real estate and residential real estate all weak. Bubba says no. The Fed has to finish the job, he says: until prices come down for everybody, housing prices are not coming down either, and getting back on track means stopping the spending, even if the housing market takes the first hit. He puts the blame on the Federal Reserve going back to Alan Greenspan, "the original bubble builder," and argues Wall Street should not get special privileges from the Fed manipulating rates to keep the stock market flying higher. #Fed #Economy #QuasarMarkets