Biotech trader/investor with a focus on nucleic acid-based and -targeted biotech. Fiercely independent. https://xitter.cf/t.co/dfLqOuH7Uh

Germany
Joined November 2011
$MRNA shorts celebrating that the mRNA cancer vaccine is unexciting. I have a feeling this is a bit premature and they may wake up tomorrow to a nightmare scenario. 0.42 and 0.5 are very meaningful HRs in a setting where most patient have not had a recurrence by 6 months.
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Covered and now trying to go long....because HR of 0.42 after 6 months. Now that would even impress @A_May_MD $MRNA feeds.issuerdirect.com/news-…
Today we announced detailed positive results from the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 study evaluating intismeran autogene (mRNA-4157 or V940), an investigational mRNA-based individualized neoantigen therapy, in combination with KEYTRUDA® (pembrolizumab), @Merck's anti-PD-1 therapy, in patients with high-risk melanoma (stage IIB-IV) following complete resection. These late-breaking results will be presented during a Presidential Symposium at the 2026 European Society for Medical Oncology (@myESMO) Congress. Read more: feeds.issuerdirect.com/news-…
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$mrna billions lost because of a leak. Absurd.
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$mrna this is a real scenario: the short cabal was still chilling on the beach getting ready to put on the squeeze on Monday....but then results leaked and they were caught with pants down.
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$mrna stock seems down on DMFS decay from phase 2, but phase 2 counts were quite small, so p2 RFS numbers more robust.
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$mrna data disappeared. Options writers in tears. I don't believe in such coincidences.
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$mrna so $450 if results come in slightly worse than phase 2, $150 downside if HR 0.8 or less. Nicely framed by the ANALysts. Monday should be a volatile day for biotech. Extra points: which stocks are most exposed if specialist funds that are sig short $MRNA blow up on Monday?
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I thought $450 on HR of 0.58. Were the analysts serious or leading retail off the cliff? $MRNA
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$KRRO unprecedented (preclinical) RNAedting efficacy data. AATD could make this company big, similar to $ALNY, then they need to solve Alzheimer's with ApoE. $beam $PRQR finance.yahoo.com/healthcare…
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China's coming for $ABVX!!! $lly would rather do a $1B deal with Hengrui than pay $15B for $ABVX. We need to be real, numbers dont lie.
#ACG2026: 🇨🇳Hengrui’s Oral miR-124 Modulator HRS-7085 Shows Promising Phase 2 Interim Results in Ulcerative Colitis HRS-7085 is an oral small-molecule miR-124 modulator. HRS-7085-201 trial (NCT07229950) comprises a randomized, double-blind Part 1 and an open-label Part 2. Part 1 randomized patients 2:2:1 to: - HRS-7085 10 mg BID, titrated from 5 mg BID for 7 days; - HRS-7085 20 mg BID, titrated from 5 mg BID to 10 mg BID and then 20 mg BID; - Placebo. Interim analysis: At Week 8, complete efficacy assessments were available for 6 placebo-treated patients, 11 patients receiving 10 mg BID and 9 receiving 20 mg BID. The HRS-7085 groups had a higher proportion of patients with a baseline endoscopic subscore of 3—72.7% in the 10 mg BID group and 75.0% in the 20 mg BID group, versus 42.9% with placebo At Week 8, mean changes in fecal calprotectin from baseline were: - HRS-7085 10 mg BID: −302.0 mg/kg - HRS-7085 20 mg BID: −143.0 mg/kg - Placebo: +227.8 mg/kg TEAEs were predominantly mild to moderate across the three groups.
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It took a dirty ASO to make real progress against #HBV. The clean RNAi alternatives are not as effective. The paragraphs below say it all. $IONS $ARWR $ABUS fda.gov/news-events/press-an…
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$PEPG rallying into position for the critical November read-out. Longer-term, the best DM1 drug may be a repeat-disruptor similar to $PEPG's, but that also crosses the BBB (which $DYN probably does).
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$XBI remember, the most ferocious rallies happen during bear markets. At least it is not a straight line down this time, so some trading opportunities IMO.
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Red line looks my Tekmira stock after Vivek looted its assets, incl 100% ownership of LNP delivery. $ABUS
BREAKING: Vivek Ramaswamy crashes to new all-time low in the odds to win Ohio's governor race. 30% chance.
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Dirk Haussecker retweeted
Today, with our partner @GSK, we announced the FDA approval for a first-of-its kind medicine for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) in the U.S. Learn more: bit.ly/3UyByeq $IONS
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This is what I meant with the analysts purposefully setting low expectations for $mrna at ESMO. A hazard ratio of 0.7 for Goldman to justify current valuation when phase 2 clearly beat that bar. Shorts should shake in their boots.
Analysts focus on RFS hazard ratio magnitude vs Keytruda alone in INTerpath-001 (Phase 3, resected stage IIB-IV melanoma), plus DMFS, safety consistency, and OS trends. Phase 2b showed ~0.51 HR (49% risk cut). Consensus expects ~0.65 HR (35% reduction) to match priced-in upside; Goldman sees <0.70 needed for current valuation. Above expectations: HR near/better than 0.51, tight CIs, consistent subgroups, clean safety, positive early OS.
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InhibinE RNAi. Yuekang Pharma enters the room. $WVE $arwr
🇨🇳 China IND Tracker (October 12–18) 16 novel drugs received their first IND clearances in China during the week, according to China’s Center for Drug Evaluation (CDE) disclosures. Notable INDs: 1. $ANL Adlai Nortye (阿诺生物) — AN4035 Injection MOA: CEACAM5-targeting ADC conjugated with a highly potent pan-RAS(ON) inhibitor Indication: Advanced or metastatic solid tumors with RAS mutations and enriched CEACAM5 expression, including colorectal cancer, pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, and non-small cell lung cancer 2. Yuekang Pharma (悦康药业) — YKYY036 Injection MOA: INHBE-targeting siRNA conjugated with GalNAc ligand Indication: Obesity or overweight 3. Precision Biotech (精准生物) — TC-13-183 Cell Therapy MOA: Cell therapy Indication: CEA-positive advanced peritoneal metastatic colorectal cancer 4. CSPC (石药集团) — SYS6088 Injection MOA: PD-1/VEGFA/CTLA-4 trispecific antibody Indication: Advanced or metastatic solid tumors 5. Qilu Pharma (齐鲁制药) — QLS2401 Injection MOA: PSMA/STEAP1/CD3 trispecific antibody Indication: Advanced prostate cancer 6. Institute of Biophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences / Sinovac Biotech (中科院生物物理所/科兴集团) — SNA01 Injection MOA: Long-acting anti-RSV mab for intramuscular administration Indication: Prevention of RSV lower respiratory tract infections in neonates and infants 7. Essight Biotech (灵识质源) — ES502 Injection MOA: RAS G12V-targeting TCR-TCE Indication: RAS G12V positive advanced solid tumors 8. Chipscreen (微芯生物) — NW001 for Injection MOA: Epigenetic immune-modulating antibody-drug conjugate (EIMAC), comprising a humanized anti-PD-L1 mab conjugated to an engineered HDACi payload Indication: Advanced malignancies, including solid tumors and lymphomas 9. Innostellar Biotherapeutics (朗昇生物) — LX111 Injection MOA: Gene therapy Indication: RVO-ME and DME 10. Metis TechBio (剂泰科技) — MTS109 Injection MOA: mRNA encoding a CD3×CD19×BCMA trispecific T-cell engager (TCE), delivered via LNPs Indication: SLE
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Huang on who is smart in the AI age: those who can see around corners. That's him obviously in his space. More generally, it is successful investors who can visualize the future and watch it as a movie in their dreams.
Jensen Huang on The smartest person he's ever met:
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