@RSA_Observer

History, geopolitics, social issues. Peels apples with scalpels. Quiet civil conversations. Mostly somewhere in the moderate middle. Aspie. Mute button user.

Joined August 2011
Some of you may wonder about the name of this profile - Chamberlain's Ghost. Just briefly, when this war started in early 2022, I strongly expressed the view that Ukraine should seek a settlement with Russia as soon as possible. This was long before we all learned about the abortive Istanbul negotiations. For this I was pilloried by friend, family, acquaintance and stranger alike. I was labelled 'Putin's shill', 'Munich appeaser', 'Neville Chamberlain' and and many other things besides. But I was right then and I am still right now. The only solution to this war for Ukraine was and still is a negotiated peace. The only difference now from then is that now the terms will be worse, many people have died and a great deal of destruction has been done. This was, in the greater sense of matters, an avoidable war. People did not need to die and a country did not need to be wrecked. But in substance ideology preceded pragmatism.
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Pretty far reaching. 🔽 "The Russian president said Witkoff also stressed that discussions had to extend to "the architecture of European security as a whole. And I agree with that too. Well, let's see how things develop in the coming days." " themoscowtimes.com/2026/10/2…
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Okay, so on this (rather insane) cat rescue thing of ours, here's Lulu. I picked her up in shopping centre parking lot yesterday afternoon. She's highly unusual for a feral in that she's super, super friendly and very affectionate - and has a considerably big purr for such a small critter. She followed me to the car and, well, begged not to be abandoned. I just didn't have it in me to leave her there. She's still a kitten, in good health (off to the vet later today for vaccinations) and because she's so friendly she's eminently adoptable. She'd be ideal for a young person (or family) looking for a cat to form a strong bond with. So we're going to see if we can get her placed with someone and will also pay for her sterilisation in due course. We can't save every cat but this girlie we have a real shot at finding a proper home for.
Okay, for those of you who have an interest in our feral cats, here is a good picture of 'Boyfriend' and then another feral named 'Mommy Bigears' with her four kittens (you have to look really carefully to see #3 which is black and white and #4 right in the back, which is pure black).
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🔽 Starlink still slow in Ukraine.
There are reports this morning that @SpaceX’s Starshield has been restored for Ukrainian use. That is not the case. As one staff officer from a key, large unit, told me just now: “We fly over 180 (km/h), fly for a few minutes, lose connection, drop to 140-150, lose connection, speed up again but the connection is still crashing.”
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This is really well done by Melania Trump. 🔽
First Lady Melania Trump @FLOTUS successfully secured a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, localized to the town of Oleshky. Both nations agreed to temporarily stop all military action in Oleshky to allow for humanitarian aid to enter and to prepare a civilian evacuation through a designated safe passageway. The localized ceasefire will begin on October 29, 2026. “The situation in Oleshky is dire. Oleshky is a front-line war city on the brink of disaster. Oleshky’s remaining population is comprised primarily of elderly residents who urgently need medical attention, medicine, food, and clean water,” said First Lady Melania Trump. “The people of Oleshky have limited electricity, live amid mined roads, and endure regular military attacks. It was abundantly clear that without my intervention, the possibility to bring humanitarian aid into the city and to evacuate the elderly would be impossible.” Melania Trump and her representative worked directly with Russian and Ukrainian leadership (in her role as “Exclusive Intermediary”), non-military civilian teams from both sides will visit residents, people can choose to evacuate to Russia or Ukraine, and an impartial American media organization will accompany and document the process. It notes prior child-reunification work and gives basic facts on Oleshky (pre-war population ~24,000; remaining estimate 1,700–2,000, mostly elderly plus ~50 children; heavy flooding after the Kakhovka Dam destruction). whitehouse.gov/briefings-sta…
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Three Russian tankers with diesel heading to the US.
BREAKING: We have now identified three tankers carrying Russian #diesel to the United States. All three loaded at petroleum berths in Russia and are declaring USA as their destination. Diesel is the only known hydrocarbon which the US OFAC currently permits imports of from Russia. #OOTT
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John is right, except that it's far more likely than he is prepared to say. BUT - and a lot of people won't like me saying this - if you take European skills and capabilities, European population size and you combine it with huge Russian resources... Almost anything becomes possible.
I'm noticing the growing possibility that Europe becomes very poor in the course of the next 10-20 years. You have the following factors: - Heavy industry totally uncompetitive against China, automakers etc. rapidly losing ground - Services industry totally uncompetitive against AI - No natural resources, or regulatory hurdles making their extraction impossible - No access to the new economy (no AI, no data centers, uncompetitive energy sector) - Client states caught in one-way welfare ratchets, spend reallocation + investment well-nigh impossible This seems under-contemplated. And we're talking really, seriously dirt poor: taken to its logical conclusion, many countries will have much, much smaller services and manufacturing industries -- economies may become much more heavily skewed toward natural resources and energy markets, where Europe has made it impossible for itself to compete. And I'm not saying that this is likely to happen, it's an extreme case. But the probability is greater than zero and appears to be growing. The EV of that is so negative that it's surprising to me that it's not coming up more.
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‼️‼️ Now this is something! 🔽 This technical thread suggests (explains) that the entire Starlink/shield slowdown issue is not a consequence of a political decision in the US or by Musk but the result of Ukrainian engineers hacking the system to bypass it's controls and do something they are not permitted to do - and when Starlink took steps to prevent the bypassing and ensure the controls remained effective, suddenly the system stopped working in 'bypass mode' - and Zelensky then set out to politicise matters. The explanation makes the bits of the puzzle fit together and fits with the New York Times article in which Ukrainians explained that although the system is formally limited to 100 mph they have managed to exceed it. ~~~~ "What was really going on with the Starlink scandal in Ukraine? An analysis of the technical modifications, hacker boards, Elon Musk’s restrictions, and why drones started falling at the end of 2026 and Zelensky staged a pre-election Trump scandal. Big thread 👇 1/15 Let’s start with the tariffs. Inside the country, only civilian Starlink has always worked: the basic tariff ($100), commercial in-motion ($400), and priority headquarters ($2–4k). Aviation tariffs cost up to $1K–20K–100K+, but they are unavailable in the country. 2/15 Because of the high load, the network was overloaded. SpaceX had to keep prices high for the military in order to build an excess of ground stations around Ukraine for minimal signal latency. By the way, these sites with antenna domes recently began to be burned on orders from the darknet. 3/15 The main problem at the front is electronic warfare (EW). Because of GPS jamming, civilian Starlink chips froze, and with false location the terminal was blocked. The solution was a GPS hack board. Engineers soldered it inside to manually set the required coordinates. 4/15 The hack boards also allowed bypassing Musk’s geographic zones. For a long time Starlink did not work in the gray zone under Russian control. But if you entered the coordinates of a neighboring region of Ukraine, the connection came back to life. The Russians used this too, until Kyiv received exclusive whitelists. 5/15 By 2025 Musk began tightening the screws and lowering speed limits for commercial tariffs. But military engineers discovered a loophole: technically the satellite-terminal communication session is not rigidly tied to GPS. The protection was only on the terminal module itself. 6/15 If the terminal thought via the hack board that it was static, it itself sent a radio request to the satellite and received the necessary data for the session. There are already about 10,000 satellites, and the signal was picked up even with a spread of 150+ km. The drone was flying, but the Starlink server considered it stationary. 7/15 This was a shared secret. Before being sent to the front, the cases of new Starlinks were massively opened in order to solder in the GPS hack and install durable moisture-proof connectors. This way the ordinary tariff allowed drones to fly at high speeds. 8/15 At the beginning of 2026 Musk lowered the speed of the commercial tariff to 160 km/h across the entire planet. This is below the speed of many simple UAVs with a tailwind. But because of the mass use of hack boards in Ukraine, no one noticed this. The terminals reported that they were supposedly standing still. 9/15 At the END of 2026 SpaceX responded harshly. A server-side check was introduced: if according to GPS the terminal is stationary, but at the same time it switches from satellite to satellite too quickly (which reveals a real speed above 160 km/h), the server instantly drops the session. 10/15 The GPS hack stopped working. Ukrainian military began having problems with long-range UAVs. Now flights must be strictly planned so as not to exceed the 160 km/h limit. There is not always money for aviation tariffs, and SpaceX does not sell them because of the attacking nature of the use. 11/15 Against this background Zelensky is trying to get access to StarShield (the US military Starlink) without restrictions in order to fly over the Russian Federation. But Trump, Musk, and the Pentagon refuse him. The Ukrainians presented the restrictions as a political blockade, remaining silent about the fact that the Starlink speed limit has already been in place for a year. 12/15 Now there is behind-the-scenes ping-pong: Musk says that he changed nothing these days, Rubio states that StarShield is unavailable to Ukraine. The bottom line: Starlink is gradually being squeezed into the framework of cars and stationary use. Bypassing the system no longer works. 13/15 Whether the speed check was turned off or access was given to special aviation tariffs is still unclear. The failure affected a narrow segment of drones. However, satellite communication on super-high-speed drones was already a compromise because of the signal delays of 1000 km to orbit and back. 14/15 Russian UAV specialists are in no hurry to rejoice. The simplicity of using Starlink slowed down the development of other technologies in Ukraine. Now Kyiv can, on an emergency priority basis, refine more complex autonomous mesh-AI systems that will fly deep into the Russian Federation. End of thread. 15/15 Written based on materials from last year’s newspapers, most likely not true and total nonsense. No one and nothing is right on the internet. Author — a boring schoolboy from Georgia."
Что на самом деле происходило со Starlink скандалом в Украине? Разбор технических модификаций, хакерских плат, ограничений Илона Маска и того, почему в конце 2026 года дроны начали падать а Зеленский устроил предвыборный Трамп-скандал. Большой тред 👇 1/15
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Addendum: To be clear, I don't blame the Ukrainians at all. They're literally fighting for their survival and one has to admire the ingenuity. And the Russians also hacked Starlink. But if it's all true, it does seem a bit harsh to pound Musk for it. Remember also that he took steps to exclude the Russians from using the system.
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As if the Russians are stupid enough to accept such an arrangement which just sets up another war later.
Kellogg: Freezing the war in Ukraine in place is a good approach. In World War II the US never recognized that the Soviet Union took Lithuania. We said you own it because you are physically on the land, and legally, de jure, you don't. 1/
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🔽 This is typically Putin - soft spoken, often an appearance of being accommodating. But it's not what ultimately determines his actions.
Well, here it is. This is what I’ve been telling you all along — Russia doesn’t want to keep fighting, and Putin has confirmed this. It’s just not clear how Russia intends to achieve the goals of the SMO. These goals cannot be achieved except through a complete victory in the war and the elimination of this Nazi Ukrainian state. Putin gave a short interview to journalists: 🔵Russia doesn’t want to fight Ukraine; Kiev wants to fight; 🔵Russia is still ready to negotiate on Ukraine, especially since Russians and Ukrainians are one people. 🔵Recent genetic studies show that Russians and Ukrainians are one people; 🔵Russia does not want and is not preparing for war with Europe; 🔵The lands lost by Kiev are not “their territory” — they are historical lands of Russia; 🔵The Russian Federation has informed the United States that it is ready to resume trilateral negotiations on Ukraine; 🔵The Russian Federation will achieve its goals; all the objectives of the special military operation will be accomplished. 🔵 Ukrainians are rounded up like stray dogs in the streets and sent to the front.
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Very good piece by Jennifer Kavanagh (@jekavanagh). What a lot of the 'no stepping back by the US' adherents seem to miss is that doing so forces allies to take greater responsibility for their own defence and that this, together with the US ability to focus and consolidate its own capabilities, should ultimately result in a more secure architecture - as a whole you have a deeper and more capable force structure. nytimes.com/2026/07/27/opini…
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What is interesting is that it seems from more reports that Starlink is working (at least somewhat) properly again for the Ukrainians - but the latter are still hitting Russian refineries by the look of it. My guess is that whoever made the decision to 'yank the leash' underestimated the political backlash. Zelensky is not entirely without any power within US domestic politics - even if it's driven more by Trump antipathy than anything else.
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Apparently the proposal to Putin is one of two options: Freeze the line of contact and Ukraine doesn't join NATO. Or Ukraine cedes all on Donbas but joins NATO. Neither is very likely to be accepted but the second even less than the first. The first might just possibly be accepted if there is a comprehensive neutrality treaty also underwritten by the four other permanent security council members and it is irrevocably enshrined in the Ukrainian constitution. It's certainly worth thinking about. But the real issue is what security guarantees accompany it, and how they are framed. Zelensky talks about "Article 5 like" guarantees but the Russians will never agree to "NATO through the back door". In a very real sense we're now back in the April 2022 frame of reference 'but with additional conditions'. tovima.com/financial-times/z…
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"As planning for a short but intensive operation [against Iran] progresses" 🔽 Do these people learn nothing? Does nobody remember how hard it was to get the Iranians to step back from the worst exchanges just recently? nytimes.com/2026/10/21/us/po…
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🔽 Fractures in Israeli society run deep.
Hilltop youth wedding, Gush Etzion. IDF rifles in the air, and the song is the Neturei Karta anthem: "The rule of the heretics we do not recognise." The singer closes with "We will break the Zionists' teeth!" Someone waves a flag for Ariel Dahari, charged with terrorism for clubbing a 52-year-old Palestinian woman. After the party, a car is torched in Beit Ummar: "Regards, Dahari, and mazal tov." The state arms them and helps them ethnically cleanse Palestinians. They don't recognize it.
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🔽 Good overview of the effect of the Starlink/shield throttling on Ukraine. I'm currently reading conflicting reports on whether the throttling is still in place or not.
It’s not completely clear if Starshield speeds have been fully restored yet for the Ukrainian military, after being throttled for the last week. A brief thread on how speed throttling impacts Ukrainian operations and battlefield dynamics. /1    nytimes.com/2026/10/21/world…
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"Before now, Ukrainian drones using Starshield flew as fast as 250 miles an hour with a stable connection, he said. The formal limit had already been 100 m.p.h., but it had not been enforced, General Biletsky said." Like I said. When Starshield Cut Out, Ukrainian Drones Fell From the Skies nytimes.com/2026/10/21/world…
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