
Creator @Weex_Official | KOL @gate | Official Ambassador @SmartXTerminal Web3 • Crypto • Trading • Content DMs open for collaborations TG: RTAyshaumar
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Joined September 2024
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Aysha Umar retweeted
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Aysha Umar retweeted
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Aysha Umar retweeted
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I normally don't do this but I'm going to go out on a limb here. With all of the "CT darlings" at pretty rich multiples I've been on the search for protocols where the price looks to be disconnected from fundamentals.
I've found a few but the one I want to post about this evening is ethereum:0xad29f2723fcdbcf665f210f25e06f97477e417cf (Gravity).
Running the raw numbers I believe this could be trading anywhere between 5x-20x below peers, and even more if you assume any sort of growth going forward. Here's what I'm seeing:
-Gravity doesn't post daily revenue numbers but they do post their fee schedule, rebate programs and daily volume. Using that data we can calculate a blended fee rate of between 2.1-4.49bp, or around $58M/yr if it lands somewhere in the middle.
-There's another way to guesstimate daily revenue which is to use the book turnover multiple. Using peer per dex's. this scatter plot has an r-squared of around 0.7 and would put GRVT's fees closer to $28M, which is technically below the lowest possible value using their actual fee tables. Since nobody knows the real value I'll let you make your own assumption.
-Post-farm OI is climbing. After OI fell off when the farming programs ended, OI has been back on a healthy climb near ATH's.
-Volume has leveled out, and it may even be back on the rise. You can see in just the last few weeks volume has significantly smoothed out into a more natural flow vs the very saw-toothed trend going back to last year. Similar to OI, I see this as the protocol having transitioned into more natural, demand driven usage.
-On almost every metric vs peers (17 other per dex's) this protocol is trading at depressed valuations: revenue/circ mc multiple, revenue/fdv mc multiple,
So why is it trading like this? I think it's twofold. The first and most likely is it's simply not a CT darling. There is a small cohort of per dex's that trade at rich multiples because they make up 95% of the day-to-day chatter CT chatter and they have some of the biggest investors/KOLs/MM's on their side to keep their attention economy pumping. The other is the price chart since TGE looks like a wet fart. Literally everyone that put money in this at almost any point is underwater. And when you both don't own the attention economy and burned all of your investors out of the gate, you get GRVT multiples.
But time heals all things and I think this token has been punished enough. It's priced so low that it's almost being priced like a failed protocol, when in fact the numbers look very solid, not far below some of the CT darlings but at a much, much cheaper valuation.
Assuming their fee schedule and posted data is accurate, then there is likely little to no wash trading going on. It would be too expensive at the posted rates.
So are there no risks? There definitely are! First and foremost, just because price is low doesn't mean it can't go even lower. Oh trust me my bullish friend, it definitely can. I just assume any money put into something like this can go to zero. The other big risk is token unlocks. There are a number of giga unlocks between now and next July. But the reason I'm not worried about them is not only is this token trading and at *extremely* depressed circ mc multiple (likely around 0.5x) but it's trading at a depressed FDV multiple as well (around 5x). So even if all tokens unlocked today (and they wont all unlock until 2030) this protocol is still trading around 4x below the cheaper end of its peers.
This is getting much more long winded than I planned so I'll stop here. But I'd suggest if you're intersted in this then also check out the integrations they already have and some of the tech they are shipping. It's all looks exciting and bullish to me.
But what do I know, I'm just a ct larp on my best day and an X unc on my worst day.
Disclaimer: I have a position in GRVT, this is not financial advice, I don't really care if you buy it, you will probably lose everything if you buy it, etc
Aysha Umar retweeted
POV: You’ve made your prediction, and now every minute until kickoff feels longer 😂⚽
Arsenal vs Everton, backing the Gunners at 1.44 odds on @biggerz. 100 T staked, 144 T potential return.
The bet is in, the countdown is on. Come on, Arsenal! 🔴👀
Aysha Umar retweeted
When you hear Solana Headquarters, what comes to mind? 🪖
We’ve got the skeleton SOLdier and the helmet. But to me, it’s the people.
Listening to the homies in last night’s @KinfolksSolana space reminded me how much opportunity we have to grow together.
My mission is to bring people together, share our networks and win as a unit. Help someone find their footing. Make an introduction. Share what we’ve learned.
Whether you buy the token or not, there’s a seat at the table. So many people in the TG I’d love to have a beer with IRL. 🍻
I want all of us to level up. Having a solid crew around you makes a difference.
That’s Headquarters to me. 🪖
What is it to you, and what direction would you like us to pivot into?
Aysha Umar retweeted
Can you use your snow deduction skill to uncover which car was parked here last?😂































