The Colts sold two Pro Bowlers in one afternoon. They got back a third, a fourth and a fifth. I used to work at Robinhood. Pricing deals was the job. So until the November 10 deadline, I'm grading every NFL trade like one. TRADE GRADES #1 AND #2 QUENTON NELSON TO SEATTLE Six time All Pro. Pro Bowl in all eight of his seasons. Indy gets: a 2027 third and a 2028 fifth. DEFOREST BUCKNER TO SAN FRANCISCO Three time Pro Bowler. The Colts paid the 13th overall pick for him in 2020. Indy gets: a 2027 fourth. The fine print: both contracts end after this season. Keep them and they likely walk in March. Seattle: A. Their run game ranks 23rd. Not anymore. San Francisco: A minus. A proven pass rusher for a fourth. Indianapolis: B minus. Selling rentals is smart. Turning a 13th pick into a fourth still stings. The Colts are 2 and 5, fired their GM and have no 2027 first. This isn't a reset. It's a teardown. Is Jonathan Taylor next? Every deadline trade gets graded here. Follow for #3.

NFL DPOY Power Rankings on Kalshi after Week 7: 1. Will Anderson Jr (34%) 2. Aidan Hutchinson (13%) 3. Fred Warner (13%) 4. Dexter Lawrence (7%) 5. Dallas Turner (7%) 6. TJ Watt (6%) 7. Abdul Carter (3%) 8. Nik Bonitto (3%) 9. Kyle Hamilton (3%) 10. Greg Rousseau (2%)

Two years ago the Eagles won the Super Bowl. Tonight they're missing their QB, their top two receivers and their right tackle. I used to work at Robinhood. Now I build NFL models, grade every pick in public, and I'm about to make the whole model free. Last week: 8 and 5. My forecast had Philadelphia by 0.15 this morning. A coin flip. Then I did the injury check I promised yesterday. Jalen Hurts: injured reserve. DeVonta Smith: out. Dontayvion Wicks: out. Lane Johnson: retired. Saquon Barkley: questionable after missing two straight. The pick flips. Dallas over Philadelphia. But not by much. Vegas has Dallas by 4.5. I think Dallas wins by a field goal, not a touchdown. Philly's backups keep it closer than people expect. Is this the end of the Eagles era, or does Philly shock everyone tonight? Graded tomorrow. Follow so you don't miss the model when it goes live.

Updated Week 7 NFL Playoff Chances, via Kalshi: 96% — Niners 95% — Bills 90% — Chiefs 85% — Vikings 78% — Jags 72% — Broncos 71% — Bears 70% — Bengals 68% — Ravens 67% — Patriots, Lions 57% — Seahawks 55% — Rams 51% — Steelers 48% — Packers 47% — Giants, Cowboys 42% — Falcons 40% — Browns 36% — Panthers 27% — Texans, Bucs 14% — Eagles 13% — Commanders 12% — Saints, Raiders 6% — Colts 5% — Jets 3% — Cardinals 2% — Chargers 1% — Titans, Dolphins