RawBooty.com | Price ≠ ΣFCFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ

Pinned note: Who am I? “rawbooty” was chosen because it’s highly memorable (and theoretically brandable). The irony is that the domain is the antithesis of my personality. I once considered developing rawbooty.com as a game or non-adult site. Instead I turned it into a free, no-tracker, no-ads HTML repository of lessons and notes I’ve written down. It’s still a work in progress, but I think there’s real value if you decide to visit. (You can ask an AI to confirm the site is safe before you go.) As for me? I’m a retired hedge fund manager. Net CAGR ~18% over my tenure; ran a long-only fund that was down ~5% net in ’08. The fund stayed small partly because I dislike self-promotion. Background includes the CME, fund-of-funds, real estate, commodities, and agriculture. Style is value-biased, bottoms-up, and contrarian. These days I run my own book, no outside money. I’m not here to grow an audience or persuade anyone. I post to clarify my own thinking; sometimes structured writing, sometimes rants, sometimes shitposts. Assume I’m wrong about everything. Nothing here is investment advice. I’ll occasionally note what I’m long or short and why; that’s just me working through a thesis, not a recommendation. This isn’t a solicitation to follow—just context. Price ≠ ΣFCFₜ/(1+r)ᵗ. Price is what you pay. Note: I have long-form articles as well. Most are also on the website. You can find them on my profile under Articles.

$MRNA another deeply troubling day. Tape is green and the stock is red. Has Austin Powers finally lost his mojo?

Today the bears are getting served a McSqueezy at McShitty. I still think this bear market is going to be a nasty one, and not in the way most people think. Here's how I currently see it playing out (briefly): Everyone wants to compare today's excesses to 2008. I think that's too easy and probably the wrong mental model. 2008 wasn't simply "too much debt." It was a highly concentrated credit event driven by a specific transmission mechanism. The key ingredients were terrible underwriting and massive leverage, which led to a collapse in the collateral values the financial system was built upon. The assumption that housing prices could never decline nationally was proven spectacularly wrong. Also, I'm not convinced we have a Lehman Brothers lurking in the shadows. That said, I do see: -plenty of fraud -circular financing -promotional BS everywhere -sketchy private credit structures -AI dogshit trading at valuations that only make sense if we discover another planet filled with rich humans willing to buy this crap What don't I see? An equivalent transmission mechanism to what happened in '08. (Lehman's derivatives exposure and millions of dogshit loans resetting from teaser rates into obligations borrowers couldn't afford.) For me, the question isn't how much debt exists in the aggregate. It's how much bad debt exists, where it sits, how levered it is, what collateral supports it, and whether defaults can become concentrated enough to force systemic liquidation that undermines collateral values across the system. Without a mechanism, some form of compression event, or a cascade of defaults that floods a major collateral pool and undermines otherwise healthy credit, I keep thinking less about 2008 and more about the 1970s. Not a crash. A slow, long, brutal grind. Imagine a world where bad debts are discovered slowly, not suddenly. Where fraud is dragged into daylight one piece at a time. In that world, refinancing becomes incrementally harder, credit spreads slowly widen, and capital is forced to become increasingly selective. Asset values don't collapse. They slowly deflate in real terms while the Fed struggles to mask the underlying problems through interventions, bailouts, restructurings, and liquidity support. Think a thousand paper cuts, one after another after another, not a gunshot wound. Think a decade of perpetual disappointment. Then again, I could be wrong. I usually am.

The mechanical problem with $CRWV right now is the algos now see it can be pushed 20% in a day. hard to see how they don't try to milk this for as long as possible.

Tempting to short $CRWV on this spike, but there are just too many parasites out there who love to squeeze shorts.

AI is fantastically powerful in the right hands. The problem is few of these hands exist. For most, it's a time sink and likely productivity killer.

There are periods of time when cash is a wonderful investment. It's also my largest position right now.

If you think these AI apps are a threat to MSFT you're an idiot.

Election 2026- Just posted a paper to the website which i think explains why across history people vote for politicians who clearly do not have the voters best interest in mind. Or more simply: Why do sheep elect obvious wolves? Taken me a long time to understand this aspect of human psychology. Thought I'd share a highlevel view of my thinking. Also, writing this took longer than i expected (almost a week). lol. rawbooty.com/papers/papers/h…

This is a very real threat that is being ignored. Being concerned is not islamophobia, it's acceptance of the reality that different cultures exist and cannot always govern peacefully.

$MRNA - something very perverse is afoot. the markets are red, yet the stock is not green.

As i've said before, there will be no deal with Iran. It's simply not possible. What is becoming increasingly evident, is that control of this conflict will very probably get to be turned over to other regional powers to be dealt with. The US will remain an influence in the form of a) persistent threat b) enforcement for the current siege that is underway. IMHO: Iran is very likely going to be a long-term, slow moving wa of attrition. Suffocated the regime by starving them of resources. @JoshYoung

Finally... a serious candidate. 🤣 @MuffinmanMagic

$TTD I was long, sold aggressively on the pop fully out avg price of 18.50 then I stupidly nibbled back a little at 16.50 in a moment of fomo haste. As per usual, i've not yet had the time to really comb through the call and data in real detail, but i have gone through it. Here's my thesis, and why i'll likely be adding back my prior position, if weakness persists. (this is opinion not advice). 1) TTD has a viable marketplace - this has been demonstrated. These are hard to build and quite resilient; but not immune from harm/attack. 2) TTD management is aligned with shareholders, though i am deeply unhappy with the SBC policy. Why is this ever really necessary. If employees want equity, they can buy it just like anyone else. These kinds of non-cash comp packages piss me off to no end. 3) the only reason i'm long is because fundamentally, as i've documented in my paper about AI (available on the homepage of my website) I believe that AI is going to collapse the available surfaces advertisers can economically use. So while we are seeing top line issues at TTD currently, i'm looking a little further out. AI *is* changing behavior - critically in how we seek, are exposed to, and ultimately consume information. Further AI Agents cannot just insert/inject ads into prompts, especially around consumer questions about products as it undermines trust in the AI which makes the AI practically useless. Drink Brawndo the thirst mutilator. So, what is happening? Advertisers are going to get slowly pushed back to more conventional channels. Importantly $GOOG and $Meta do not control these surfaces which should be good for TTD. Now is it possible that OpenAi or Anthrophic or some other AI company figures out how to create new functional surfaces that complete with TTDs markets? yes. unquestionably yes. Which is why i'd never make a big bet in this POS company. Brawndo's got electrolytes That said, it's still a pretty solid asset at a not so horrible price in the low teens. p.s. Brawndo ads are discrediting and distracting here, imagine them littered throughout your AI sessions.

Jensen's Wang is turning into quite the distraction. My feed is overwhelmed with his photos. What am i not supposed to be looking at? Iran? the election? that feeling of dread i have every time i think about the AI bubble? 🤣🤔😬

Ok this is just too funny/cute: youtube.com/shorts/tkmNchMCL…

Some fun popular themes to chew on: 1) #oil prices - Oil is clearly down 6% today because the war is going to end soon. (how do you end this war, and turn the oil back on quickly?) 2) $AAPL - growth is slowing, valuation is super high but it's been a good place to hide out from AI. So, on a day when AI stocks rally AAPL goes up too? 🤔 3) $MRNA - ignore the science, ignore the fundamentals of the business model, ignore the valuation, @ 280 it's obviously going to 300. because round numbers? 4) #gold #silver -- the fear / inflation trade... not a high beta asset?....yet, up 3% when the indexes are up 3% 🤔 5) $NVDA Jensen's Wang has been an issue for a year? And only now, post mid-terms it's in focus... 🤔 6) #AI - crisis of the last few weeks was clearly a false alarm. We will now resume your regular programming. youtube.com/watch?v=BoXu6Qmx…

Interview with Colonial Sanders @ 90yrs old -- what's interesting about this is he was born in 1890, so the views he's expressing are really Victorian vintage. Worth watching if for no other reason than as a comp what people believe today. youtu.be/ttdTGPQer-o?si=PTG0…

Far too much money is currently chasing momentum strategies. Best i can tell these algos largely ignore fundamentals, which are clearly deteriorating on multiple fronts. Assuming i'm right, there's going to be a lot of opportunities to trade around the coming volatility.

If this has been in motion for over a year, then there's likely a lot more going on than headlines suggest.