GasFundies

Lighter renewables generation for this storage week sets up for a lighter build with stronger power burn. Production was off for the week, and LNG feed gas was healthy. It’s a seasonal transition week, however, so, although I lean more to a lighter build, there’s risk to either side of market consensus. GasFundies PipeScrape is +57. #NatGas

Forecast +73, EIA gas storage week ending 23-Oct. Seasonal transitions are a challenge to model. Production stepped up some for the storage week and Canadian Imports scaled back. Power Burn was off close to 20 Bcf for the week but I see ResCom up by roughly the same amount. Even though heating demand is lighter than it was last year at this time, it still creeps in with 45-55F in Pittsburgh. [abridged] +73 is pretty close to a midpoint for a range I could see on this one. #NaturalGas #NatGas #GasStorage #GasTrading

We'll see production pick up with HDDs. Dominion prices will have an opportunity to pick up with HDDs. In the past yes production was more the steady while demand ramped. And yes producers are more efficient. I'll add that new production is tied much closer to new structural demand. That's a difference from the past as well. Now, I'm not always right. Just most of the time. jk #NaturalGas #NatGas

Gas storage forecast for the week ending 10/02/26 is +82 (PipeScrape). Production prints have been low enough that I question some of it. That could mean a surprise heavier-than-expected build. S/D is a little lighter. #NaturalGas #NatGas #GasStorage

Clear of TCO's MXP Line force majeure, we have a good measure of production impact. At the height of the event, MXP-100's 1.8 Bcfd capacity was reduced to zero while associated production shut-ins reached a lesser 1.5 Bcfd. #NaturalGas #NatGas #Production #Trading Full story on substack.com/@gasfundies

My Take on the Number substack.com/@GasFundies #NaturalGas #NatGas #Storage #Trading

If sentiment is changing around this Super El Nino, even an ounce, tighter summer storage carries... #NaturalGas #NatGas #Storage #Trading

GasFundies Gas Storage Forecast, week ending 18-Sep, Before the Surveys..: realgasfundies.substack.com/… #NaturalGas #NatGas #Storage #Trading

"Record heat didn’t save me from a 4.0 EOS. Renewables saved you from a 3.6" New GasFundies paper coming to Substack tomorrow. Customers have it now. substack.com/@gasfundies #NaturalGas #NatGas #Storage #Trading

A lesson for gas analysts. The market is constantly working toward balance. Forecast the balance. It isn't logical to assume supply simply floods the market independent of demand, although production can certainly begin showing up ahead of anticipated demand. Why do you think producers shut-in on lower prices? Because the market has too much supply, and the price they're receiving for unhedged gas has fallen to uneconomic levels. Similarly, a producer with a long-term supply agreement tied to a new LNG facility shouldn't ramp production blindly against an uncertain commercial startup date. Storage is the ultimate balancing mechanism. The whipsawed lag between supply and demand finding each other shows up as tighter or looser storage inventories. So if you forecast a significant increase in production over the summer that takes storage over 4 Tcf, without matching that supply within some reasonable range of the demand necessary to justify it, you've made a fundamental error. You may get individual pieces wrong—I certainly do (not a lot)—but the balance still has to make sense. And if a trader or another analyst treats you like forecasting a roughly 1,900 Bcf summer build over 214 days is easy and should be perfectly quantifiable with zero change along the way, keep your head up, be professional... …and send them to me. I'm happy to explain it to them ;) #NaturalGas #NatGas #Storage #Trading

The Pieces Changed. The Balance Didn’t. realgasfundies.substack.com/… #NaturalGas #NatGas #Storage #Trading

GasFundies just wrote a note on Substack substack.com/profile/5497395… #NaturalGas #NatGas #GasStorage

good morning, mullets. get in there. #NatGas #NaturalGas

GasFundies Permian Producer Ranking substack.com/@gasfundies/not… #NaturalGas #NatGas

GasFundies proprietary Permian producer ranking is Coming Soon. Company filings tell us what the company economically owns and reports. GasFundies identifies the physical gas supply being operated in the Permian today. We use regulatory well-level production and classification, reconcile current ownership and asset transfers, and use company disclosures as a validation layer rather than simply reproducing reported corporate volumes. #NaturalGas #NatGas #GasProduction #PermianProduction

Comments after calling the right side of today's EIA storage report: "Honestly, I have nothing against AI models. In fact, I treat AI like any other analyst I'm teaching. If it ran for lunch, it would be perfect." #NaturalGas #NatGas #GasStorage

Gas storage forecast, week ending 04-Sep-26, is +43. #NaturalGas #NatGas #GasStorage youtu.be/gIaplQVG884

EIA STEO end of Mar-27 storage sub-1.9 Tcf. That's a good one. I like it 🤠 #NaturalGas #NatGas #GasStorage

RRC Texas Gas Storage Summary, month ending July 2026 (abridged): Well, Texas must be leaking gas because if Permian production was up with the GCX expansion, wind knocked the wind out of power burn and Freeport was down most of the month for maintenance, then where did the gas go. July was an 8 Bcf build for the whole state over the whole month. Yes, we draw gas in July, and the summer build slows but I have a point on my head. Everything bearish that everyone has been talking about is not reflected in this storage report. In customer inboxes today. #NaturalGas #NatGas