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UFC weekly breakdowns, picks & LOCKS! šŸ“ˆ Film-based review for EVERY fight on EVERY card. LOCKS: 2026 (146-31-1) | 2025 (122–36) CheersšŸ‘ŠšŸ¼

Joined November 2024
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#UFCVegas124šŸ”’ā€™s: Nina Milosevic ML Mantas Kondratavicius ML Lucas Fernando ML Austin Bashi ML Elijah Smith ML ALL ML’s ALL MF’in DAY!! APEX IS OURS!!! *These are LOCKS, NOT official bets* #UFC #MMA #MMATwitter
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1
1
18
1,957
F*^% IT LETS GO JOHNNY WALKER!!!
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Johnny Walker #UFCVegas124 Projected Winner: Johnny Walker Breakdown: Waldo Cortes-Acosta is a big athletic specimen. He has a ton of power on the feet, lands at a high clip of volume, and can take a shot and keep moving forward. He can grapple better than expected as well. He can be taken down and controlled, but it’s a much easier said than done task getting Waldo to the mat. Johnny Walker is a bit of a genetic specimen himself. After making the leap from light heavyweight, he’s found a home at heavyweight. He’s a solid striker who throws solid combinations, kicks and knees. Everything he throws is damaging, and the biggest knock you can make on him is his chinniness. I do think Walker is the higher-level striker, and if we were basing this solely on heavyweight appearances thus far, I think he’s the favorite heading into this. Eff it, let’s go Johnny Walker! #UFC #MMA #MMATwitter
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187
I still think Virna is better.
104
#UFCVegas124šŸ”’ā€™s go 4-1!! Kondratavicius YOU ABSOLUTELY SUCK! On an upset filled night, we stay tight. BUT PERFECT IS THE GOAL. Onward!šŸ“ˆ
#UFCVegas124šŸ”’ā€™s: Nina Milosevic ML Mantas Kondratavicius ML Lucas Fernando ML Austin Bashi ML Elijah Smith ML ALL ML’s ALL MF’in DAY!! APEX IS OURS!!! *These are LOCKS, NOT official bets* #UFC #MMA #MMATwitter
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233
Elekana looking like the half cow from Rocky out there
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177
PETERSEN YOU F*^%ING SAVAGEEEEEEE
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187
COME ON PETERSEN! GAS NOW!
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207
Mantas….I hate you.
Mantas Kondratavičius vs Andre Petroski #UFCVegas124 Projected Winner: Mantas Kondratavičius Breakdown: Mantas Kondratavičius is a powerful striker with solid technique, throwing clean and accurate shots. He mixes combinations well, flashing kicks, elbows and knees. He keeps forward pressure and is dangerous in the clinch. He can execute takedowns but does his best work on the feet. Andre Petroski is a wrestler who seems to always find himself in a scrap. He’s a grinder and does a good job making a fight ugly. Unfortunately, his chin hasn’t always held up to match his willpower. I think Petroski will do a good job having his moments and making Mantas react to him, though I don’t know that he’ll have enough sustained success to prevent Kondratavičius from finding his shots and accumulating damage. #UFC #MMA #MMATwitter
7
361
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Johnny Walker #UFCVegas124 Projected Winner: Johnny Walker Breakdown: Waldo Cortes-Acosta is a big athletic specimen. He has a ton of power on the feet, lands at a high clip of volume, and can take a shot and keep moving forward. He can grapple better than expected as well. He can be taken down and controlled, but it’s a much easier said than done task getting Waldo to the mat. Johnny Walker is a bit of a genetic specimen himself. After making the leap from light heavyweight, he’s found a home at heavyweight. He’s a solid striker who throws solid combinations, kicks and knees. Everything he throws is damaging, and the biggest knock you can make on him is his chinniness. I do think Walker is the higher-level striker, and if we were basing this solely on heavyweight appearances thus far, I think he’s the favorite heading into this. Eff it, let’s go Johnny Walker! #UFC #MMA #MMATwitter
1
5
853
Tatiana Suarez vs Virna Jandiroba #UFCVegas124 Projected Winner: Virna Jandiroba Breakdown: Tatiana Suarez is a relentless wrestler. She does a good job staying safe in exchanges while finding her opportunities to shoot. Once on the ground, she can be smothering, though she won’t spam ground and pound. Rather, she’s working to find a submission, wear you down and bank rounds. Virna Jandiroba is happy to take your gameplan and throw it out the window. She loves an ugly fight. She has solid jiu-jitsu and wrestling on the mat, but throws on the feet with aggression and power. She looks to get you on your back foot, where she can pour on pressure and pace. I think technically this fight favors Suarez’s wrestling. However, Jandiroba’s pressure is a lot to deal with, and if Tatiana can’t settle in and move forward, I can see her spending too much time responding rather than initiating. Lean Virna. #UFC #MMA #MMATwitter
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610
Davey Grant vs Elijah Smith #UFCVegas124 Projected Winner: Elijah Smith Breakdown: Davey Grant is just one of those guys nobody is really excited to see standing across from them in the Octagon. He’s a grappler who has developed solid striking over time to create a well-rounded gameplan. He’ll march forward knowing he’s comfortable wherever the fight goes. Elijah Smith is a well-rounded fighter who has been around martial arts for the entirety of his life. He’s a high-level wrestler, grappler and striker. He isn’t overly aggressive, but does a good job staying safe and keeping his gameplan working. I think this is a phenomenal matchup for both guys, but I see Smith being too well-rounded for Grant to find the late-round success he’s been finding lately. Once the dust settles, I still trust Smith to stay on the offense and get the win. #UFC #MMA #MMATwitter
4
630
Billy Elekana vs Lucas Fernando #UFCVegas124 Projected Winner: Lucas Fernando Breakdown: Billy Elekana is a big-handed striker who throws with solid power, though he won’t come forward too aggressively, instead waiting for opponents to bring the fight to him. He can threaten real takedowns and has decent grappling to help generate offense and stay safe if needed. Lucas Fernando is a high-volume, peppering striker who does a good job working from range. He throws creatively and often, and when he lands a big shot, he does a good job following up ASAP and looking for the finish. I think this fight comes down to who’s leading the pressure, and I don’t see Elekana getting the better of enough exchanges to warrant much confidence that he can keep the pressure on Fernando. I trust Fernando to dictate the pace and land the more meaningful shots. Can you hear the drums… #UFC #MMA #MMATwitter
2
349
Priscila Cachoeira vs Nina Milosevic #UFCVegas124 Projected Winner: Nina Milosevic Breakdown: Priscila Cachoeira at this point relies primarily on size and pressure because she isn’t a killer technically anywhere. However, she’s aggressive and willing to engage and push the pace, even if she’s on the losing end of exchanges. Nina Milosevic is a big-finishing striker who hunts KOs and throws with decent volume, sharp accuracy and big power. She can grapple and has flashed opportune takedowns, but she’s more dangerous on the feet. I see Cachoeira absorbing a lot of damage here. I don’t think she presents the ability to control position or pace wherever this fight goes, and I see a pretty clear win for Milosevic. #UFC #MMA #MMATwitter
3
463
Mitch Raposo vs Marcos Degli #UFCVegas124 Projected Winner: Marcos Degli Breakdown: Mitch Raposo is a solid boxer with a solid chin and a big ol’ heart. He can be hit but has no problem taking a shot to deliver one. He’s definitely a grinder, and where he may lack in technique and wrestling/grappling, he makes up for it with pressure and aggression. Marcos Degli is a well-rounded finisher who throws big shots, albeit not with the most technical striking, but is very solid in the grappling department and has no problem making a fight a war. He’s constantly keeping opponents guessing by flashing different looks. I think Raposo will bring a solid gameplan and good pressure, but I trust Degli’s ability to execute the level change and find success in the grappling exchanges. Both guys are willing to make this ugly, but I like Degli’s wider arsenal to be the difference. #UFC #MMA #MMATwitter
2
615
Keiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie Schmid #UFCVegas124 Projected Winner: Keiichiro Nakamura Breakdown: Keiichiro Nakamura is a striker who throws big, loaded shots. He’ll spend some time trying to figure out his opponent and can start slow, but will work volume and big shots once he’s settled in. Ollie Schmid is a striker who likes to work around the cage at distance and crash into exchanges with big shots. He’s a long guy for the weight class and does a decent job measuring opponents, but looks to land a big shot early. I think these odds are wide, but I do like Nakamura to beat Schmid to the punch in those meaningful exchanges. Both guys will be looking to land big, but I trust Nakamura to find his timing and capitalize on those opportunities. #UFC #MMA #MMATwitter
2
625
Gabriel LorenƧo vs Thomas Petersen #UFCVegas124 Projected Winner: Thomas Petersen Breakdown: Gabriel LorenƧo is a Chute Boxe fighter who does his best work from range with counterstriking and capitalizing on blood in the water. He has powerful shots but doesn’t put himself in danger to find them. He’ll wait until you enter range and find his shot. Thomas Petersen is a pretty solid barometer for the division as to who actually belongs in the UFC. His only loss outside the organization was to the guy headlining this event in Cortes-Acosta. He’s a wrestler who throws big, heavy hands on the feet to close distance and grind you down to the mat. I think Petersen will have to take a solid punch and potentially weather a storm, but if he can keep his chin safe, I can see him closing distance, wearing on LorenƧo, mitigating the KO threat and grinding out a win. Interesting matchup. #UFC #MMA #MMATwitter
2
427
Karine Silva vs Gabriella Fernandes #UFCVegas124 Projected Winner: Karine Silva Breakdown: Karine Silva is a well-rounded fighter who has been very disruptive for anyone who can’t control the position of the fight. Her striking is quick and high-volume, though she’s a true grappler who does a good job closing distance and grinding fights to the mat. Gabriella Fernandes is a physically large fighter for the division. She’s very tough and brings a solid striking game. She can grapple, but doesn’t necessarily dictate position well. She more so threatens submissions and works to stay safe from all positions. I think Silva will be difficult for Fernandes to control. I see Silva threatening too much offense for Fernandes to settle in and establish her own gameplan. Gimme Karine. #UFC #MMA #MMATwitter
4
575
Jose Delano vs Murtazali Magomedov #UFCVegas124 Projected Winner: Murtazali Magomedov Breakdown: Jose Delano is a solid striker who throws great output without presenting much of an opening for opponents. He also has a recorded kimura against Jean Silva (fine, not THAT one… an 0-4 Jean Silva). Although he’s more of a striker, he can grapple decently and isn’t the easiest to get to the mat. Murtazali Magomedov is a more well-rounded version of most ā€œMagomedovs,ā€ but he fights how you might expect. He’s a takedown machine and controls the hell out of position. He can strike decently as well, and his well-roundedness can keep opponents uncomfortable. I think Magomedov’s style will be tough for Delano to have success against. Delano has the striking to make things interesting, but I trust Magomedov to establish his wrestling, dictate position and control the fight. I like Magomedov to get it done. #UFC #MMA #MMATwitter
1
4
896
Austin Bashi vs Carlos Calderon #UFCVegas124 Projected Winner: Austin Bashi Breakdown: Austin Bashi is a developing martial artist who stems from a high-level wrestling background. He’s had some learning curves adjusting to the differences that exist in MMA wrestling. He’s fairly well-rounded and tough, though he is subject to being clipped. He keeps a solid pace as well. Carlos Calderon is a decently well-rounded fighter who keeps a high pace and will look to grapple as well as throw heavy volume on the feet. He’s willing to take one to give one and keeps himself on the front foot. I think Calderon is taking too big a leap here for his true UFC debut against Bashi. Both guys can keep a solid pace and have their moments, but I trust Bashi’s wrestling and experience to be the difference. I like Bashi to get it done. #UFC #MMA #MMATwitter
1
333
Mantas Kondratavičius vs Andre Petroski #UFCVegas124 Projected Winner: Mantas Kondratavičius Breakdown: Mantas Kondratavičius is a powerful striker with solid technique, throwing clean and accurate shots. He mixes combinations well, flashing kicks, elbows and knees. He keeps forward pressure and is dangerous in the clinch. He can execute takedowns but does his best work on the feet. Andre Petroski is a wrestler who seems to always find himself in a scrap. He’s a grinder and does a good job making a fight ugly. Unfortunately, his chin hasn’t always held up to match his willpower. I think Petroski will do a good job having his moments and making Mantas react to him, though I don’t know that he’ll have enough sustained success to prevent Kondratavičius from finding his shots and accumulating damage. #UFC #MMA #MMATwitter
1
4
692