Smart Bull

Finally 2D printed a sell on $BTC If there is a nice dip or a fresh buy signal (higher or lower I don't care), I am buying my spot back.

Instead of going long I am actually placing a small bet on $eth short 😬

Idk why, but $NEAR is probably the most talked about coin on my timeline right now. Was a good 2026 bet and I caught a couple solid runners, but the 2D just gave a sell. Not chasing a bag or longing this dip. Use this post as the market bottom mark lol

Oil dumped nicely. Glad I closed most of the position last week. Still holding one long just in case. Now watching whether we get another bounce from here or if the rally is done and we start consolidating. If we bounce cleanly, I might add.

CT is still out here saying the Binance hack is fully priced in. Meanwhile the most profitable traders on Hyperliquid just used this dip to ramp shorts from $1.3B to $2.1B while longs stayed completely flat. Last time they were this short was July — lows that the crowd declared the bear market bottom. This time we’ve barely corrected, bitcoin:native is just -10% from the September peaks. Extremely Profitable traders finally on the wrong side?

Last week I rage-closed all my shorts right before the Binance hack (terrible mistake) Except one. Today I found out that market order didn’t go through on one of my subaccounts lmao Now sitting on a +320% bitcoin:native short I didn’t even know I had

ethereum:native just printed a new buy signal on the 12h. Again under the 50 DEMA. Skipping again. This is where you find out if you’re a trader or just someone who wants more trades.

Bullish propaganda on my timeline is only making me bearish again 😂 The bottom is in, green arrows up, bears are fucked etc etc

$TRUMP might be a good trade here

And this is us now. My bearish bias is starting to fade lol

My mistake was studying TOTAL3. On bitcoin:native, 4 red weekly candles in a row happened 22 times — a much better sample. The next candle was red in only 6 of 22 cases (27%). Base rate of a red weekly on BTC is 44%. Even more interesting - when price was above the 20w, 50w and 200w SMA at the same time, the 5th candle was green in all 4 historical cases (0/4 red). Bitcoin is in that exact position right now. Much higher chance the next candle closes green. Doesn’t mean a mega pump — it can also be choppy price action with a weekly close just slightly above the open. It still counts.

I didn’t chase any numbers in October. Just posted consistently and replied under posts where I had something to say. 50k impressions last week is probably small for a lot of accounts, but I was surprised to see this number. Thanks to everyone who finds the TA useful and supports my work with comments, likes, or reposts. Appreciate it 🫶

Don’t mistake my acc for a loser perma bear. I’ll be the overleveraged dumb bull the moment the setup is there — and I’ll bullpost nonstop. I didn’t miss the bottom like some might think. I bought the spot in summer on the 2D signal (on top of the rekt bags from last cycle). Nailed the August pump on futures. Probably left some on the table in September. Right now I just don’t see a reason to go max long again: - spot OBV still looks weak - extremely profitable traders on HL remain net short - my index is giving bullish crosses, but most new signals are still printing under the 50 DEMA - 2D algo is still bearish I closed my shorts earlier than I should have. So my current position is simply no positions, but stablecoins. Which is also a position.

Index flipped bullish. Participation didn’t. Only 16 of 120 coins (13%) are above the 50 DEMA, while system is bullish for 52 coins. The % coins > 50 DEMA is lagging hard again. System is generating signals, but I’m skipping them all. Every new signal was generated below the 50 DEMA. Too late to short, unclear for longs. So I am staying in cash.

Meanwhile Extremely Profitable traders on Hyperliquid are the only group still net short. Building back to -$0.5B — levels last seen in late summer. Everyone else is long. Next week can close green. I still won’t buy the bull party if these guys stay short. Not fading the smartest money on HL.

Altcoins are about to print 5 red weekly candles in a row (candle still open, likely closes red). CT is waiting for a bounce next week, so I checked every 5-red streak on TOTAL3 since 2017. It only happened 4 times before — next candle was red in 2 of 4. Basically a coin flip. But every previous time the 6th candle printed below both the 20w and 50w SMA. This time price is holding above the 20w and retesting the 50w from above. So this time CT might actually be right — higher chance the drop pauses next week. But what do you expect to see?

This is the real extraction math. Best odds in the entire market to cross 100k: Stonk — 0.0379% (1 in 2,600) Virtuals — 0.0278% (1 in 3,600) Long — 0.0244% (1 in 4,100) Worst: Zora — 0 out of 13.2M Moonshot — 0 out of 222k LetsBonk — 0.0006% (1 in 164,000) @Pumpfun is at 0.0013% (1 in 78,000) and still leads in absolute winners only because they printed 24M coins. Congrats to everyone who made it. The rest of you were the product.

I get it, but why not wait for the uptrend in BTCUSD and pick the coins that are relatively stronger in that time window?

My 12H algo on majors is still quiet — no buy signals. So I’m staying flat on longs. Missing the pico bottom is fine if it means catching the next REAL uptrend. $BTC $ETH $SOL

Second question for the bottom callers: If this is the bottom bottom, why is spot OBV on $BTC completely failing to support that idea? It’s breaking support and looks dead.