Within cells. Interlinked.
Joined October 2019
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Pour one out
We are hearing estimates north of $30bn worth of stock needs to be sold into the bell due to levered ETF’s
From our ETF Desk... “- Levered/Inverse Daily Rebalance ~$32Bn for Sale: Tech -$29.2Bn (Semis -$17.8Bn), S+P 500 -$2.6Bn, Small Caps -$134mm, Fins -$109mm, Energy is to Buy
May be largest on record for selling”
ETFChange
Intel Bull (INTW)-60.4%
AXT Bull (AXTX)-31.1%
Sandisk Bull (SNDU)-30.0%
Semi Bull (SOXL)-28.1%
Coherent Bull (COHX)-26.0%
Cipher Bull (CIFU)-25.5%
Dell Bull (DLLL)-25.2%
Nebius Bull (NEBX)-23.7%
Advanced Micro Bull (AMDL)-23.8%
Marvell Bull (MVLL)-23.2%
Lumentum Bull (LITX)-23.0%
Look back at that monster gap down in 2000
Things that make you go hmmm
Maybe not on the scale of the dotcom bubble here but we’re certainly undoing a lot of what went on in the past 12-18 months
It would be awesome if we could get a 2018 type end of year here
These types of high dispersion markets suck
Bring correlations to one washout the crowd and let us get levered into 2027
Fearful it’s going to just continue to be an RSP > QQQ market like this until we do get a real 10-20% correction which is just a terrible market
Nothing like waiting til a stock has gone down over 40% MoM to release a short report
That #1 print hitting like Gandalf coming over the hillside to save Helms Deep
$PSI - Trades 2, 3, 4, and 5 each arrived at a critical pivot. #1 arrived today. If the pattern continues, we should see a bounce in semis in the near future.
Implications for $SOXX, $SMH, $SOXL, $SOXS
HOWEVER **
Complicating matters is that the Leopold Liquidation Zone in $SMH ($541-$549) finally breached after numerous tests leaving price below a very large zone of concentrated institutional activity. In simpler terms, price is below local support.
Now $PSI is much more evenly balanced among its holdings, with $NVDA only comprising about 4% of the fund whereas $SMH is about 19% $NVDA. So they two ETFs can diverge to some degree depending on how $NVDA performs.
$117.88 is the level to watch for bias on $PSI for the next few sessions. Longs unsafe below it.
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