Ricky Davis II

NFL Week 8 Preview Here’s what I’m looking at on this slate - How on earth is Bills vs Ravens a 1:00 PM game? - Baltimore gets Lamar Jackson back, and the 4-3 Ravens need this game more than 5-1 Buffalo. The Bills have a good pass rush, but a very suspect back end, making this a high-ceiling game for Zay Flowers, who I’d frame as a top 10 receiver in the league. - That said, Jackson is returning from a high ankle sprain and for all the talk of how great of a pocket passer he is, he’s only thrown for over 4,000 yards in one season (2024) and over 250 yards twice over the past two years. Jackson is a historic play extender and his ability to pick up a third and long with his feet are the traits that make him special. I mention all of this because if his pressure management wizardry is slowed still from his ankle injury, and Buffalo’s pass rush is impactful, my eyes are on how Declan Doyle handles that kind of dynamic. - Lions vs. Vikings is another 1:00 PM contest that’s very much worthy of a national spotlight. Jared Goff is my favorite example of a quarterback that can shred you if he’s comfortable, but if he faces consistent pressure, he looks like a completely different guy. Goff vs. Brian Flores is the key to this game. - The other, and perhaps more important for Minnesota’s future, is this is a game where Kyler Murray needs to show some ceiling against a Lions pass defense that has been smoked several times this season. If Murray struggles in this game, especially if the Vikings lose, coming off J.J. McCarthy having a very good game in his first start as a Giant last week, the already existing anti Kevin O’Connell sentiment out there is going to get louder. - Drake Maye faces a below average Dolphins pass rush, paired with a below average secondary. If Maye had 4 or 5 TDs in this game, it would not surprise me. - It also wouldn’t surprise me if Mike Vrabel’s defense completely shut down Miami, so in other words I’d be pretty surprised if the Patriots did not beat the Dolphins with some distance, as both their passing attack and defense are in potential smash spots coming off a long week, and a loss, while volatile Miami is coming off a victory against the Jets last week. - The Titans were already a tough watch, now they lost their best player in Jeffery Simmons. This could be Chase Brown week, or maybe Joe Burrow hangs another four touchdown passes against a very beatable Titans defense. - Cincinnati’s front four has a trench advantage against the Titans very disappointing offensive line, against their equally disappointing young quarterback in Cam Ward. - Right now this doesn’t just look like another rebuild in Tennessee, but they should already be leaning towards moving on from Robert Saleh. - The Colts trading away their best trench player on both sides of the ball makes this a game where Trevor Lawrence, with a now more neutral trench matchup, faces Daniel Jones where Jacksonville’s talented front now has an advantage in this contest. Similar to Cincinnati, the Jaguars have a few plus matchups in this contest over a rebuilding team from the AFC South. - The Steelers’ defense has a trench advantage against Cleveland, but Pittsburgh is coming off a game in Paris. Teams coming off a game in Europe, without having a bye in between, is one of the few macro trends I view as a legit disadvantage (home team on Thursday Night Football is another). That doesn’t necessarily mean that team will lose, but it’s an unwanted variable. - Pittsburgh’s offensive line has struggled with a few fronts this year (New England and Tampa Bay come to mind), I’d put Cleveland in that same class of front four. - The Cowboys’ offense should shell Arizona, in a game with a 54.5 total (which is very high for a total that includes an offense like the Cardinals). That gives Dallas a 30.75 team total, where their side has shootout conditions (not much of a pass rush threat, while having a good quarterback and WR vs. secondary advantage). - The Cowboys defense has enough talent where they simply should not be as bad as they’ve been. Joey Porter Jr. is kind of a nightmare matchup for a player like Michael Wilson. The Cowboys do not have a great front four, but Quinnen Williams is a high-end player while guys like Rashan Gary and Kenny Clark are facing a bottom tier Cardinals offensive line. This group needs to step up in this matchup. - That said, when Arizona surges it’s often behind a physicality swell on their end, it’s kind of unique, actually, which is why I’m pointing it out. If Wilson has a pretty bad matchup, and Dallas is obviously game planning for Trey McBride, where they should be willing to take their chances with Kendrick Bourne in the slot, is this a game Jeremiyah Love has a spike? - If the Jets could get two first round picks for Garrett Wilson, I wouldn’t hate it. He’s good, and long term he makes New York a team that could be very hard to defend with a real quarterback, but truth be told they’ll still be hard to defend even if they moved Wilson. - When the Raiders were heading into halftime against the Rams last week, that struck me as the moment to hand Fernando Mendoza the keys. Kirk Cousins has played very well, but Vegas is now 3-4, on a 4-game losing streak. I’ve said a few times now this reminds me of Kurt Warner with the Giants, when he was a placeholder for Eli Manning. This is right around when Eli took over, even though Warner played well. - Jets vs. Raiders has some interesting shootout potential, with the caveat that I could see Maxx Crosby having a big game against Geno Smith, who takes bad sacks. - The NFC South is sneaky interesting because the Buccaneers are still alive despite being 2-5, and if they beat Atlanta here they are truly right in the thick of things in the division. - I would be absolutely stunned if Todd Bowles does not make Michael Penix beat him through the air. Tampa’s corners did a much better job than I expected against the Cowboys big perimeter duo a few weeks ago, and they shut down Carolina last week during Tampa’s destruction of the Panthers. So, it would not stun me if Drake London had a solid, but not quite a huge game. - Kyle Pitts was a factor in each of the last four games he played against Tampa, including his monster 11-166-3 outing last year against the Bucs. When I provide stats like this it’s not because I was reaching numbers, it’s because I had a matchup thought, and went back and looked at that specific player. - The Chargers are 0-6, coming off a bye, with a real quarterback and a coaching staff that is capable of creating margin. If the Rams pass rush was at full strength, the Chargers would be in trouble, but since the Rams pass rush is at roughly half staff (which is still a solid one) there is at least a path for the Chargers stringing together a solid offensive performance here. - Now, on the other side of things, this looks like a game where Matthew Stafford will have all day to throw and Puka Nacua is not only off the injury report, but given how he functions in this offense, I’d think it’s a very hard matchup to adjust to for teams that don’t play him often. When the Chiefs had Tyreek Hill he would destroy teams that he didn’t play often fairly often, Nacua is not the same type of player as Hill, at all, but Nacua with Stafford and how they acquire production, there is no parallel in the league. - Two core thoughts on Broncos vs. Chiefs. The first is this is the game where Bo Nix needs to do more. He’s never been a great player, but he has been a good game manager with some upside, particularly with his feet. Denver changing play callers this offseason, coming off an AFC Championship appearance that they would have won if Nix was available, was a baffling decision. But now, at nearly the midway point of the season, especially with the team adding a player like Jaylen Waddle, it’s time for Nix to play well. - The second point is Kenneth Walker had a monster game on opening day, which creates a conceivable scenario where Denver maybe invites Patrick Mahomes to beat them through the air, as preposterous as that sounds to say out loud. KC is weak at offensive tackle, and Mahomes had a fairly rocky October. - Sean Payton historically has messy backfield deployments, but Jonah Coleman should be the primary ball carrier on this team (for now). - Commanders versus this version of the Eagles is a very uninteresting game for me. Tanner McKee is hard to watch, and he’ll be without DeVonta Smith and Dontavian Wicks. So, expect the Eagles offense to run through Saquon Barkley and Dallas Goedert, as a tight end is the best friend of a bad quarterback. - It would be nice if the Eagles front went out and won a game, or at minimum made Jayden Daniels basically win this contest on his own. - Seahawks vs. Bears is a great primetime game between NFC contenders. - How does Dennis Allen handle Jaxon Smith-Njigba? - Seattle’s run game has been better, but still not the sort of group you are overly concerned with. Allen has been using mug ups regularly, while sending heat more often than he traditionally does. With Jeffery Simmons now in the fold and Seattle not having a running game that can kill you, I’ll be curious to see if Allen still uses mug ups, but brings just four at a higher rate. - Seahawks LT Charles Cross is doubtful, which gives Chicago’s edge group a pretty good matchup, especially with Montez Sweat back. - Ben Johnson vs Mike Macdonald is a fascinating matchup, especially since Johnson has so much experience with Brian Flores’ pressure looks. - Seattle has such a well constructed front four. NT Byron Murphy is the lynchpin and one of the league’s most underrated players, but the entire group, from the starters to the depth behind them, is such a great unit. And on top of that, Macdonald is one of the very best at bringing heat. - One thing I’ve noticed with Seattle is a few teams have been able to create some margin against them with back shoulder throws downfield, which would line up well with Rome Odunze’s skill set. I first noticed it against Washington (which shocked me) and I noticed Kyle Shanahan go to it a few times. The wrinkle here is, and this is a fine example of why I love football, Johnson noticed this, and Macdonald likely knows Johnson has noticed. - The other aspect I’m curious about is does D’Andre Swift see a bump in passing game usage? Try to catch Seattle in a big blitz against a screen, some proactive checkdowns to get him in space, perhaps paired with a delayed run or two behind their right side, try to get Seattle coming downhill, create a big lane behind that right side at the risk of getting blown up in the backfield. It’s a really good chess matchup. I have watched every NFL game for roughly a decade. I have done this for the purpose of sports speculation. I run a reality-based program here. Engagement is how I reach new users. So as long as engagement remains strong (comments/ shares) I’ll continue pumping this and similarly detailed insights out every week. Have a happy Halloween, and a fine football Sunday.