סיכום תוצאות הבחירות הכי טוב שראיתי עד עכשיו
youtu.be/aSJZ4lwORRo?t=40&is…
Oded.roz retweeted
Brazilian stocks:
cheap ✅
hated ✅
uptrend & breakout ✅
gone nowhere for 18 years ✅
Music to my ears...
🇧🇷 Brazilian stocks up 14% today. 🇧🇷
Brazil was the world's 2nd cheapest stock market at the end of Q3.
The media assumes this is due to the election results, but really, when a stock market is trading at rock bottom valuations it's like a bunch of dry kindling just waiting for a spark. (The same is true for expensive markets and stocks; see NKE)
Often it's not even good news, rather just going from awful to less awful...
Quarterly valuation updates are being sent out to @TheIdeaFarm this week...
theideafarm.com
$ZIM
נשמע לי הגיוני שההצעה החדשה צריכה להיות במחיר גבוה יותר. מבוסס רק על ההיגיון שלי, אבל אני מניח שבשביל שהעסקה תצא לפועל, צריכה להיות דחיפה גם מהצד של צים להראות שזה קביל מבחינה רגולטורית. במחיר עסקה שהוא בערך מה שיהיה בחברה במזומן בקרוב, מה האינטרס של צים לדחוף מעבר למינימום?
I think the new H-L offer for $ZIM will be substantially different than original such that another shareholder vote may be required. If so, and i think it will, this will open the door for a higher buyout price than a measly $35. That'd barely cover a lid 40 years ago, lol
פייבל 5 זה לא מודל זה תרגיל שיווקי, כמו במסעדה שדוחפים מנה יקרה מידי לתפריט כדי שלקוחות יקנו את המנה השנייה הכי יקרה, אז עכשיו במקום להתלבט אם המשימה פשוטה מספיק לסונט או שצריך את אופוס, העבירו את ההתלבטות להיות בין פייבל לאופוס.
מפה לשם נגמרו לי הטוקנים אז עברתי לכתוב ציוצים
Oded.roz retweeted
$ZIM : 𝗢𝗻𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗠𝗶𝘀𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝗱 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗻𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁
𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗖𝗮𝗽: ~$3.0B
𝗖𝗮𝘀𝗵 𝗼𝗻 𝗛𝗮𝗻𝗱: ~$2.6B
𝗖𝗮𝘀𝗵 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗢𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗲: ~$600M
𝗘𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗽𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗲 𝗩𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗲: -$200M (𝗡𝗲𝗴𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲)
With the $ZIM buyout now practically dead due to government opposition, a great opportunity has emerged from the ashes.
The market is effectively valuing one of the world’s youngest and most efficient container fleets, a leading Trans-Pacific carrier, and billions of dollars of earnings potential at a negative $200 million enterprise value. Insane.
$HLAG and $MAERSK recently updated their outlooks, the positive news sent both stocks up around 7%. We believe $ZIM should benefit even more, as it has one of the highest sensitivities to spot freight rates. We expect the company to report strong results soon.
𝗙𝗿𝗲𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁 𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀
Based on current freight rates, we estimate $ZIM is currently earning approximately $0.7 to $0.8 per share every week.
Peak season is only beginning. Traditionally it starts in July and August ahead of the Christmas shopping season. This year, however, demand strengthened unusually early, with peak conditions beginning as early as May due to a shortage of available vessels.
𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗵𝗶𝗽𝗽𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗥𝗲𝗺𝗮𝗶𝗻𝘀 𝗧𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁
For years analysts have predicted oversupply. They continue to ignore that effective capacity, not theoretical capacity, determines freight rates.
𝟭. 𝗦𝘂𝗲𝘇 𝗖𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗗𝗶𝘀𝗿𝘂𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻
The Red Sea situation continues forcing many vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, extending voyage times and effectively removing an estimated 8-10% of global container shipping capacity. Longer voyages mean fewer vessels are available for new cargo until normal Suez traffic resumes.
𝟮. 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻
Ports around the world remain congested while very few major new ports are being built. Every additional day ships spend waiting effectively removes capacity from the global fleet, further tightening vessel availability.
𝟯. 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲
Global trade continues growing faster than expected.
2024: ~7%
2025: ~4.8%
2026: We expect ~5%
Demand continues surprising to the upside.
The result is simple.
Analysts correctly predicted that the number of ships would increase. What they missed is that effective capacity continues shrinking because of longer voyages, port congestion and stronger-than-expected global trade. As a result, charter rates remain near multi-year highs despite fleet growth.
