Leo Ruga

📊 Bitcoin’s spot demand proxy improved three days in a row. The combined 30-day estimate still fell to −348K BTC on Nov 10, its lowest reading of the month so far. The perp estimate fell by more than twice as much as spot improved. Both were still negative. I’ll give the spot improvement more weight when it starts showing up in the total. For now, I’m watching whether the combined estimate can stop making new lows.

I’ve been reorganizing the RR Terminal as a whole. The new design gives each part of the product a clearer job and creates room for the next indicators we’re adding. Inside Pro, Control is the command room. It starts with model posture and allocation, then separates tactical trend, medium-term market context, long-term position and options. The Evidence Map shows what controls the current read, what pushes back and lets you open the module behind every signal. Systems define the model action. Context organizes the environment. Risk and execution stay with the user. Rolling out now.

📊 The 1K–10K BTC cohort has turned more active: its 7-day net balance is now +12.7K BTC. The short-term acceleration is visible, but the 30-day balance used by the model remains almost flat at +283 BTC. This is an early improvement that has not persisted long enough to rebuild the medium-term signal. I care about that distinction because this cohort has the strongest historical relationship to forward BTC returns in the model, and that relationship improves from 30 to 90 days. If the 7-day move is real, it should start pulling the 30-day balance higher while price holds. That is the confirmation I am waiting for.

A few days ago, my read was simple: the rebound was possible, but it still lacked confirmation from real demand. The latest daily close pushed that doubt in the wrong direction. Market Fuel moved into Distribution. Spot CVD closed at -6.5K BTC, Coinbase premium at -0.156%, and none of the four demand sources was actively buying. Meanwhile, open interest is still building and longs remain the exposed side. The move lower did not clear the leverage underneath it. Real demand is selling while borrowed exposure keeps rebuilding. For this read to improve, spot CVD and Coinbase premium need to stop selling, followed by broader demand confirmation. Until then, rebounds are trying to climb without sponsorship.

👀 Bitcoin fell with the tech selloff, but the part that caught my attention is in the options structure. At $75,992, BTC is 0.85% below the $76,640 gamma flip. Net signed GEX is -$25M, placing dealers in negative gamma. In this regime, hedging tends to follow the move instead of absorbing it. A broad risk-off shock can therefore hit BTC faster. The next structural test is the $75K put wall. Reclaiming $76.64K would reduce that pro-cyclical pressure. Losing $75K would keep the tape exposed. One caveat: implied volatility is already rich versus realized volatility. The structure remains unstable, but it offers no clean continuation edge.

📊 Leverage has been the main driver in Market Fuel for 29 straight days. What caught my attention today is that demand is finally broadening. Three of four available sources are now buying. I’m still not calling it spot-led. Coinbase premium remains negative, so US spot demand has not confirmed the shift. Until that flips, leverage is still doing most of the work. 😉

I added ETF Demand to the free side of RR Terminal last week 📊 I built it because looking at one ETF flow headline rarely gives you enough context. The indicator brings together: • Daily flows across US spot Bitcoin ETFs • Total BTC held by the funds • The estimated average cost paid by ETF buyers • Bitcoin’s distance from that cost basis • Forward returns from comparable historical conditions This helps separate a single noisy flow day from a real change in institutional demand. Are ETFs consistently adding exposure? Are buyers sitting in profit or underwater? Is the pressure isolated to one fund or visible across the group? That is the context I wanted to make easier to read. ETF Demand is updated inside Market Map and available for free to every RR Terminal user. 👀

Quick update for everyone following the RR Terminal 📊 We've been in 100% cash for 19 days now. Both systems stepped out on October 14, and since then BTC is down more than 6% while we've been sitting flat, watching it from the sidelines 🛡️ The gains we built over the last three months are still with us. Vinces did +66.7% in that stretch, and none of it went back into this drop. If you're looking at this dip wondering whether to buy it, or you're still holding a bag because you were sure it would bounce, I get it. I've been there 🙏 That's exactly the spot these systems were built to keep us out of. Rule number one is not losing money. Making money comes second, and it only compounds if you respect the first. So we're not guessing the bottom. We're waiting. When conditions turn favorable again, the systems put us back into a good position. Until then, cash is the position. We get in when the odds favor us, we get out when they stop favoring us, and we leave a little on the table at both ends. Never the exact top, never the exact bottom. That's how a system like this moves, and it's how we operate. The moment the signal turns, you'll see it in the terminal before you read it here. 🤝