Apparently, since $HIMS has not received a warning letter, even though they have been contacted by the FDA, the financial impact of compounded Semaglutide being banned is unknowable, so that 2026 guidance is stuffed with GLP-1s. Probably about 30% of revenues and more of profits.
Does the guidance change when (not if) they receive the warning letter?
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Good to see FDA approved Multi-Cancer Detection tests will be covered by Medicare in 2028 $GRAL
sewell.house.gov/2026/1/rep-….
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Anyone trading HIMS and not reading Cedar Grove's research is a dope. $HIMS
cedargroveresearch.com/subsc…
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Have to hand it to Paul Cerro at Cedar Grove for his excellent analysis last week of what to avoid - and short - $HIMS @cedargrovecm
$ENPH. $200M operating earning run rate now that the solar market has normalized. 35% of California sales are still pre-NEM sales. PW3 is a superior product and ENPH will cut prices. Going to earn less than $1 in EPS next year. Some will be shocked how low this trades.
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$SMCI. Charles Liang in his keynote last night:
…we are targeting 15% of the global new data center development. We'll be using our DLC solutions in the next 12 months and hopefully up to 30% in the following year. Isn't this amazing? From 0% to less than 1%, took us 30 years. And now from less than 1% to 15%, 30% in 1 or 2 years.
$NVCR will replace it's 0% convertible debt with a $400M secured debt agreement in $100M tranches at a 11.6% rate. Net cash likely to be close to zero when the convertible matures. The viability of this money losing company with questionable technology is now in doubt.
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$ENPH "We will cut prices if we have to..." Tesla Powerwall 3 is shipping and offers massive cost savings. Badri just blinked.
$SMCI The last time SMCI gave an release date without guidance was 10.18.23
ir.supermicro.com/news/news-…
Which was followed by the 11.1.23 report with a massive raise to guidance that took the stock from 300 to $10
1000...
ir.supermicro.com/news/news-…
$NVCR successful trial? No benefit to overall survival. Belief it helps with quality of life, but they can’t quantify. Why would you use this device?
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Bill Ackman’s original thesis on NFLX is proving to be correct, and maybe too conservative. Surprised he has not repurchased his shares. #NFLX @billackman
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Twitter needs to find a way to block all the telegram scams on the platform @elonmusk @jam_croissant
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Why would Ryan Cohen stay long $GME at $70? Would take years of work to support this valuation.
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$DKNG spends $2 in marketing to generate $1.3 in revenues. Managment to guide to whatever revenues they want if they don’t add an EBITDA target.
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$ZM. Needham target of $540, based on 31x 2025. Revenues. So Rev of $5B, with managment guide of 25% op margins is $1.25 op income. 130x op income 5 years out? Good luck.